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Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions
The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May 'predictability barrier'. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems
Actin-Related Protein Arp6 Influences H2A.Z-Dependent and -Independent Gene Expression and Links Ribosomal Protein Genes to Nuclear Pores
Actin-related proteins are ubiquitous components of chromatin remodelers and are conserved from yeast to man. We have examined the role of the budding yeast actin-related protein Arp6 in gene expression, both as a component of the SWR1 complex (SWR-C) and in its absence. We mapped Arp6 binding sites along four yeast chromosomes using chromatin immunoprecipitation from wild-type and swr1 deleted (swr1Δ) cells. We find that a majority of Arp6 binding sites coincide with binding sites of Swr1, the catalytic subunit of SWR-C, and with the histone H2A variant Htz1 (H2A.Z) deposited by SWR-C. However, Arp6 binding detected at centromeres, the promoters of ribosomal protein (RP) genes, and some telomeres is independent of Swr1 and Htz1 deposition. Given that RP genes and telomeres both show association with the nuclear periphery, we monitored the ability of Arp6 to mediate the localization of chromatin to nuclear pores. Arp6 binding is sufficient to shift a randomly positioned locus to nuclear periphery, even in a swr1Δ strain. Arp6 is also necessary for the pore association of its targeted RP promoters possibly through cell cycle-dependent factors. Loss of Arp6, but not Htz1, leads to an up-regulation of these RP genes. In contrast, the pore-association of GAL1 correlates with Htz1 deposition, and loss of Arp6 reduces both GAL1 activation and peripheral localization. We conclude that Arp6 functions both together with the nucleosome remodeler Swr1 and also without it, to mediate Htz1-dependent and Htz1-independent binding of chromatin domains to nuclear pores. This association is shown to have modulating effects on gene expression