Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa

Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring cities may behave as the source of these re-introductions. To evaluate this hypothesis, we introduce a spatially explicit metapopulation model for rabies diffusion in Central African Republic. Calibrated on epidemiological data for the capital city, Bangui, the model predicts that long-range movements are essential for continuous re-introductions of rabies-exposed dogs across settlements, eased by the large fluctuations of the incubation period. Bangui's neighborhood, instead, would not be enough to self-sustain the epidemic, contrary to previous expectations. Our findings suggest that restricting long-range travels may be very efficient in limiting rabies persistence in a large and fragmented dog population. Our framework can be applied to other geographical contexts where dog rabies is endemic

Temporal patterns of abundance of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera : Culicidae) and mitochondrial DNA analysis of Ae. albopictus in the Central African Republic

The invasive Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) was first reported in central Africa in 2000, in Cameroon, with the indigenous mosquito species Ae. aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). Today, this invasive species is present in almost all countries of the region, including the Central African Republic (CAR), where it was first recorded in 2009. As invasive species of mosquitoes can affect the distribution of native species, resulting in new patterns of vectors and concomitant risk for disease, we undertook a comparative study early and late in the wet season in the capital and the main cities of CAR to document infestation and the ecological preferences of the two species. In addition, we determined the probable geographical origin of invasive populations of Ae. albopictus with two mitochondrial DNA genes, COI and ND5. Analysis revealed that Ae. aegypti was more abundant earlier in the wet season and Ae. albopictus in the late wet season. Used tyres were the most heavily colonized productive larval habitats for both species in both seasons. The invasive species Ae. albopictus predominated over the resident species at all sites in which the two species were sympatric. Mitochondrial DNA analysis revealed broad low genetic diversity, confirming recent introduction of Ae. albopictus in CAR. Phylogeographical analysis based on COI polymorphism indicated that the Ae. albopictus haplotype in the CAR population segregated into two lineages, suggesting multiple sources of Ae. albopictus. These data may have important implications for vector control strategies in central Africa. Author SummaryAedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors of human arboviral diseases such as dengue and chikungunya. Ae. aegypti is indigenous in the Central African Republic (CAR), whereas Ae. Albopictus, originating from Asian forests, was first reported in 2009. To determine the consequences of this invasion of Ae. albopictus for epidemiological transmission of arboviruses, we conducted a comparative study in the early and late wet season in the capital, Bangui, and in the other main cities of the country to document infestation by the two species and their ecological preferences. In addition, we explored the geographical origin of populations of Ae. albopictus with two mitochondrial DNA genes (COI and ND5). We demonstrate that Ae. aegypti predominates early and Ae. albopictus late in the wet season. Ae. albopictus was the most prevalent species in almost all the sites investigated, except Bouar, where only Ae. aegypti was found, suggesting that Ae. albopictus tends to supplant Ae. aegypti in sympatric areas. Mitochondrial DNA analysis revealed broad low genetic diversity, confirming recent introduction of Ae. albopictus. Phylogeographical analysis with MtDNA COI gene suggested that Ae. albopictus in CAR came from multiple invasions and from multiple population sources

Risultati spettrali su rivestimenti riemanniani

Early assessment of infectious disease outbreaks is key to implementing timely and effective control measures. In particular, rapidly recognising whether infected individuals stem from a single outbreak sustained by local transmission, or from repeated introductions, is crucial to adopt effective interventions. In this study, we introduce a new framework for combining several data streams, e.g. temporal, spatial and genetic data, to identify clusters of related cases of an infectious disease. Our method explicitly accounts for underreporting, and allows incorporating preexisting information about the disease, such as its serial interval, spatial kernel, and mutation rate. We define, for each data stream, a graph connecting all cases, with edges weighted by the corresponding pairwise distance between cases. Each graph is then pruned by removing distances greater than a given cutoff, defined based on preexisting information on the disease and assumptions on the reporting rate. The pruned graphs corresponding to different data streams are then merged by intersection to combine all data types; connected components define clusters of cases related for all types of data. Estimates of the reproduction number (the average number of secondary cases infected by an infectious individual in a large population), and the rate of importation of the disease into the population, are also derived. We test our approach on simulated data and illustrate it using data on dog rabies in Central African Republic. We show that the outbreak clusters identified using our method are consistent with structures previously identified by more complex, computationally intensive approaches

Investigation of a mpox outbreak in Central African Republic, 2021-2022

International audienceHuman monkeypox virus is spreading globally, and more information is required about its epidemiological and clinical disease characteristics in endemic countries. We report the investigation of an outbreak in November 2021 in Central African Republic (CAR). The primary case, a hunter, fell ill after contact with a non-human primate at the frontier between forest and savannah. The ensuing investigation in a small nearby town concerned two families and four waves of inter-human transmission, with 14 confirmed cases, 11 suspected cases and 17 non-infected contacts, and a secondary attack rate of 59.5% (25/42). Complications were observed in 12 of the 19 (63.2%) confirmed and suspected cases with available clinical follow-up data: eight cases of bronchopneumonia, two of severe dehydration, one corneal ulcer, one abscess, two cutaneous superinfections, and six cutaneous sequelae (cheloid scars, or depigmentation). There was one death, giving a case fatality ratio of 1/25 (4.0%) for confirmed and suspected cases. This outbreak, with the largest number of confirmed cases ever described in CAR, confirms the potential severity of the disease associated with clade I monkeypox viruses, and highlights the need for rapid control over virus circulation to prevent the further national and international spread of infection