New insights on Celtic migration in Hungary and Italy through the analysis of non-metric dental traits

The Iron Age is characterized by an extended interweaving of movements by Celts in Europe. Several waves of Celts from Western and Central Europe migrated southeast and west from the core area of the La Téne culture (between Bourgogne and Bohemia). Through the analysis of non-metric dental traits, this work aims to understand the biological relationship among Celtic groups arrived in Italy and the Carpathian Basin, as well as between local populations and Celtic newcomers. A total of 10 non-metric dental traits were analyzed to evaluate biological affinities among Celts (Sopron-Krautacker and Pilismarót-Basaharc) and Scythians-related populations from Hungary (Tápiószele), Celts from continental Europe (Switzerland and Austria), two Iron Age Etruscan-Celtic sites from northern Italy (Monterenzio Vecchio and Monte Bibele), 13 Iron Age central-southern Italic necropolises, and the northern Italian Bronze Age necropolis of Scalvinetto. Strontium isotopes were measured on individuals from the necropolis of Monte Bibele to infer their local or non-local origin. Results highlight the existence of statistically significant differences between Celts and autochthonous Italian groups. Celtic groups from Hungary and Italy (i.e., non-local individuals of Monterenzio Vecchio and Monte Bibele) share a similar biological background, supporting the historical records mentioning a common origin for Celts migrated to the eastern and southern borders of today’s Europe. The presence of a supposed Steppean ancestry both in Celts from Hungary and Celts from northern Italy corroborates the hypothesis of the existence of a westward migration of individuals and genes from the Steppe towards northern Italy during the Bronze and Iron Age, which contributed to the biological variability of pre-Celtic and later Celtic populations, respectively. Conversely, individuals from central-southern Italy show an autochthonous pre-Iron Age background. Lastly, this work supports the existence of Celtic migratory routes in northern Italy, as shown by biological and cultural admixture between Celts and Italics living together

The Bumpy Road to Incorporating Uncertainty in Predictive Modelling

One of the key problems of predictive modelling is the lack of tools to incorporate and map the uncertainties of the predictions made. Without explicit description of the varying quality of the archaeological and environmental data, statistical methods risk making inaccurate predictions. Hence, lacking adequate descriptions of bias and error, predictions often rely on expert judgement. But can expert judgement be quantified in such a way, that predictions can be made that will respect the experts’ views, and at the same time reflect the uncertainties in the experts’ opinions as well as in the available data? This paper reports an investigation into whether expert views can be quantified and incorporated in statistical predictions, for which we tested two potentially useful techniques, Bayesian inference and Dempster-Shafer theory