Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance

BACKGROUND: The US government proposes pandemic influenza mitigation guidance that includes isolation and antiviral treatment of ill persons, voluntary household member quarantine and antiviral prophylaxis, social distancing of individuals, school closure, reduction of contacts at work, and prioritized vaccination. Is this the best strategy combination? Is choice of this strategy robust to pandemic uncertainties? What are critical enablers of community resilience? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically simulate a broad range of pandemic scenarios and mitigation strategies using a networked, agent-based model of a community of explicit, multiply-overlapping social contact networks. We evaluate illness and societal burden for alterations in social networks, illness parameters, or intervention implementation. For a 1918-like pandemic, the best strategy minimizes illness to <1% of the population and combines network-based (e.g. school closure, social distancing of all with adults' contacts at work reduced), and case-based measures (e.g. antiviral treatment of the ill and prophylaxis of household members). We find choice of this best strategy robust to removal of enhanced transmission by the young, additional complexity in contact networks, and altered influenza natural history including extended viral shedding. Administration of age-group or randomly targeted 50% effective pre-pandemic vaccine with 7% population coverage (current US H5N1 vaccine stockpile) had minimal effect on outcomes. In order, mitigation success depends on rapid strategy implementation, high compliance, regional mitigation, and rigorous rescinding criteria; these are the critical enablers for community resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic evaluation of feasible, recommended pandemic influenza interventions generally confirms the US community mitigation guidance yields best strategy choices for pandemic planning that are robust to a wide range of uncertainty. The best strategy combines network- and case-based interventions; network-based interventions are paramount. Because strategies must be applied rapidly, regionally, and stringently for greatest benefit, preparation and public education is required for long-lasting, high community compliance during a pandemic

Glycosylation Focuses Sequence Variation in the Influenza A Virus H1 Hemagglutinin Globular Domain

Antigenic drift in the influenza A virus hemagglutinin (HA) is responsible for seasonal reformulation of influenza vaccines. Here, we address an important and largely overlooked issue in antigenic drift: how does the number and location of glycosylation sites affect HA evolution in man? We analyzed the glycosylation status of all full-length H1 subtype HA sequences available in the NCBI influenza database. We devised the “flow index” (FI), a simple algorithm that calculates the tendency for viruses to gain or lose consensus glycosylation sites. The FI predicts the predominance of glycosylation states among existing strains. Our analyses show that while the number of glycosylation sites in the HA globular domain does not influence the overall magnitude of variation in defined antigenic regions, variation focuses on those regions unshielded by glycosylation. This supports the conclusion that glycosylation generally shields HA from antibody-mediated neutralization, and implies that fitness costs in accommodating oligosaccharides limit virus escape via HA hyperglycosylation

Structure of the pre-60S ribosomal subunit with nuclear export factor Arx1 bound at the exit tunnel

Pre-ribosomal particles evolve in the nucleus through transient interaction with biogenesis factors, before export to the cytoplasm. Here, we report the architecture of the late pre-60S particle purified from Saccharomyces cerevisiae through Arx1, a nuclear export factor with structural homology to methionine aminopeptidases, or its binding partner Alb1. Cryo-electron microscopy reconstruction of the Arx1-particle at 11.9 Å resolution reveals regions of extra densities on the pre-60S particle attributed to associated biogenesis factors, confirming the immature state of the nascent subunit. One of these densities could be unambiguously assigned to Arx1. Immuno-electron microscopy and UV cross-linking localize Arx1 close to the ribosomal exit tunnel in direct contact with ES27, a highly dynamic eukaryotic rRNA expansion segment. The binding of Arx1 at the exit tunnel may position this export factor to prevent premature recruitment of ribosome-associated factors active during translation

Study protocol: a multi-centre randomised study of induction chemotherapy followed by capecitabine +/- nelfinavir with high- or standard-dose radiotherapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (SCALOP-2)

Background Induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiation is a treatment option for patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). However, overall survival is comparable to chemotherapy alone and local progression occurs in nearly half of all patients, suggesting chemoradiation strategies should be optimised. SCALOP-2 is a randomised phase II trial testing the role of radiotherapy dose escalation and/or the addition of the radiosensitiser nelfinavir, following induction chemotherapy of gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel (GEMABX). A safety run-in phase (stage 1) established the nelfinavir dose to administer with chemoradiation in the randomised phase (stage 2). Methods Patients with locally advanced, inoperable, non-metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma receive three cycles of induction GEMABX chemotherapy prior to radiological assessment. Those with stable/responding disease are eligible for further trial treatment. In Stage 1, participants received one further cycle of GEMABX followed by capecitabine-chemoradiation with escalating doses of nelfinavir in a rolling-six design. Stage 2 aims to register 262 and randomise 170 patients with responding/stable disease to one of five arms: capecitabine with high- (arms C + D) or standard-dose (arms A + B) radiotherapy with (arms A + C) or without (arms B + D) nelfinavir, or three more cycles of GEMABX (arm E). Participants allocated to the chemoradiation arms receive another cycle of GEMABX before chemoradiation begins. Co-primary outcomes are 12-month overall survival (radiotherapy dose-escalation question) and progression-free survival (nelfinavir question). Secondary outcomes include toxicity, quality of life, disease response rate, resection rate, treatment compliance, and CA19–9 response. SCALOP-2 incorporates a detailed radiotherapy quality assurance programme. Discussion SCALOP-2 aims to optimise chemoradiation in LAPC and incorporates a modern induction regimen

Cohesin Proteins Promote Ribosomal RNA Production and Protein Translation in Yeast and Human Cells

Cohesin is a protein complex known for its essential role in chromosome segregation. However, cohesin and associated factors have additional functions in transcription, DNA damage repair, and chromosome condensation. The human cohesinopathy diseases are thought to stem not from defects in chromosome segregation but from gene expression. The role of cohesin in gene expression is not well understood. We used budding yeast strains bearing mutations analogous to the human cohesinopathy disease alleles under control of their native promoter to study gene expression. These mutations do not significantly affect chromosome segregation. Transcriptional profiling reveals that many targets of the transcriptional activator Gcn4 are induced in the eco1-W216G mutant background. The upregulation of Gcn4 was observed in many cohesin mutants, and this observation suggested protein translation was reduced. We demonstrate that the cohesinopathy mutations eco1-W216G and smc1-Q843Δ are associated with defects in ribosome biogenesis and a reduction in the actively translating fraction of ribosomes, eiF2α-phosphorylation, and 35S-methionine incorporation, all of which indicate a deficit in protein translation. Metabolic labeling shows that the eco1-W216G and smc1-Q843Δ mutants produce less ribosomal RNA, which is expected to constrain ribosome biogenesis. Further analysis shows that the production of rRNA from an individual repeat is reduced while copy number remains unchanged. Similar defects in rRNA production and protein translation are observed in a human Roberts syndrome cell line. In addition, cohesion is defective specifically at the rDNA locus in the eco1-W216G mutant, as has been previously reported for Roberts syndrome. Collectively, our data suggest that cohesin proteins normally facilitate production of ribosomal RNA and protein translation, and this is one way they can influence gene expression. Reduced translational capacity could contribute to the human cohesinopathies

Progress toward standardized diagnosis of vascular cognitive impairment: Guidelines from the Vascular Impairment of Cognition Classification Consensus Study

INTRODUCTION: Progress in understanding and management of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) has been hampered by lack of consensus on diagnosis, reflecting the use of multiple different assessment protocols. A large multinational group of clinicians and researchers participated in a two-phase Vascular Impairment of Cognition Classification Consensus Study (VICCCS) to agree on principles (VICCCS-1) and protocols (VICCCS-2) for diagnosis of VCI. We present VICCCS-2. METHODS: We used VICCCS-1 principles and published diagnostic guidelines as points of reference for an online Delphi survey aimed at achieving consensus on clinical diagnosis of VCI. RESULTS: Six survey rounds comprising 65-79 participants agreed guidelines for diagnosis of VICCCS-revised mild and major forms of VCI and endorsed the National Institute of Neurological Disorders-Canadian Stroke Network neuropsychological assessment protocols and recommendations for imaging. DISCUSSION: The VICCCS-2 suggests standardized use of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders-Canadian Stroke Network recommendations on neuropsychological and imaging assessment for diagnosis of VCI so as to promote research collaboration

Coupled GTPase and remodelling ATPase activities form a checkpoint for ribosome export

Eukaryotic ribosomes are assembled by a complex pathway that extends from the nucleolus to the cytoplasm and is powered by many energy-consuming enzymes (1-3). Nuclear export is a key, irreversible step in pre-ribosome maturation(4-8), but mechanisms underlying the timely acquisition of export competence remain poorly understood. Here we show that a conserved GTPase Nug2/Nog2 (called NGP-1, Gnl2 or nucleostemin 2 in human(9)) plays a key role in the timing of export competence. Nug2 binds the inter-subunit face of maturing, nucleoplasmic pre-60S particles, and the location clashes with the position of Nmd3, a key pre-60S export adaptor(10). Nug2 and Nmd3 are not present on the same pre-60S particles, with Nug2 binding prior to Nmd3. Depletion of Nug2 causes premature Nmd3 binding to the pre-60S particles, whereas mutations in the G-domain of Nug2 block Nmd3 recruitment, resulting in severe 60S export defects. Two pre-60S remodeling factors, the Rea1 ATPase and its co-substrate Rsa4, are present on Nug2-associated particles, and both show synthetic lethal interactions with nug2 mutants. Release of Nug2 from pre-60S particles requires both its K(+)-dependent GTPase activity and the remodeling ATPase activity of Rea1. We conclude that Nug2 is a regulatory GTPase that monitors pre-60S maturation, with release from its placeholder site linked to recruitment of the nuclear export machinery

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research