Aggregate Earnings and Expected Stock Returns in Emerging Markets

This paper examines the time-series predictability of aggregate stock returns in twenty emerging markets. In contrast to the aggregate-level findings in the United States, earnings yield forecasts the time series of aggregate stock returns in emerging markets. We consider aggregate earnings not as normalizing variables for stock price but as predictive variables in their own right. Aggregate earnings covary with the market returns; hence, it is not just the mean reversion of stock prices that is responsible for the forecasting power of earnings yield. These results are robust across different estimation methods and after controlling for small-sample bias and macroeconomic variables.business cycle, earnings, emerging markets, market returns, predictability,

Aggregate earnings and expected stock returns in emerging markets

This paper examines the time-series predictability of aggregate stock returns in twenty emerging markets. In contrast to the aggregate-level findings in the United States, earnings yield forecasts the time series of aggregate stock returns in emerging markets. We consider aggregate earnings not as normalizing variables for stock price but as predictive variables in their own right. Aggregate earnings covary with the market returns; hence, it is not just the mean reversion of stock prices that is responsible for the forecasting power of earnings yield. These results are robust across different estimation methods and after controlling for small-sample bias and macroeconomic variables

Product Recalls and Security Prices: New Evidence from the US Market

We examine 1460 product recalls that were announced by U.S Official Agencies between January 1990 and December 2014. Consistent with previous research, we report statistically significant negative abnormal returns during the announcement dates. Moreover, our results suggest two main objectives. First, we find that the effect of product recalls vary for industries in terms of operation and competition. Second, we show that recall announcements cause spillover effect at industry where rival firms receive short term positive abnormal returns during announcement dates. Over post-announcement periods, cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) lose significance and results are robust for both selected market index and estimation method

Corporate Lobbying and Labor Relations: Evidence from Employee-Level Litigations

In this study, we analyze employee litigation and other work-related complaints to examine if the judicial process favors firms that engage in lobbying. We gather data for 27,794 employee lawsuits (after their initial court hearings) filed between 2000 and 2014 and test the relationship between employee allegations and firms\u27 lobbying strategies. We find that employee litigation increases the number of labor-related bills in our sample. We document that an increase in employee lawsuits may drive firms into lobbying to change policy proposals. We also find robust evidence that case outcomes are different for lobbying firms compared to non-lobbying rivals, which may protect shareholder wealth in the long run. Our results suggest lobbying activities may make a significant difference in the effects of employee lawsuits. Our findings highlight the benefit of building political capital to obtain biased outcomes in favor of politically connected firms

Corporate Lobbying, CEO Political Ideology and Firm Performance

In this paper, we investigate the influence of CEO political orientation on corporate lobbying efforts. Specifically, we study whether CEO political ideology, in terms of manager-level campaign donations, determines the choice and amount of firm lobbying involvement and the impact of lobbying on firm value. We find a generous engagement in lobbying efforts by firms with Republican leaning-managers, which lobby a larger number of bills and have higher lobbying expenditures. However, the cost of lobbying offsets the benefit for firms with Republican CEOs. We report higher agency costs of free cash flow, lower Tobin\u27s Q, and smaller increases in buy and hold abnormal returns following lobbying activities for firms with Republican managers, compared to Democratic and Apolitical rivals. Overall, our results suggest that the effects of lobbying on firm performance vary across firms with different managerial political orientations