Reform of the Malawian Public Sector: Incentives, Governance and Accountability

Accountability , Civil service reform, Good governance, Malawi , Public sector reform

Reform of the Malawian public sector: Incentives, governance and accountability

Since the early 1990s, Malawi has tried to undertake economic reforms, including the restructuring of the public sector, even as it embraced democratic reforms. Paucity of human and financial resources has made the process difficult and drawn out. However, towards the end of the 1990s, the reforms began to bear fruit. Notably, the efficiency of the civil service improved, while the government continued to emphasise the importance of accountability and established an agency to fight corruption. This chapter analyses the factors, which have influenced public sector reforms in Malawi, with emphasis on the nature of reforms implemented by the government and the incentive structure in the civil service. Not unlike many other African countries, top political support has been important for the successful implementation of public sector reform in Malawi. However, sustainability will only be ensured when support for the programmes is spread among broad sections of the population

Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts

The purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will decrease substantially though inflation inertia may prevent a rapid stabilization of food prices. One of the main driving forces behind domestic inflation is agricultural output growth. While exchange rate and monetary policies can make a significant difference, it is crucial to take into consideration the development of the domestic cereal market. If international prices would start increasing again, they would to have a strong impact on Ethiopia, and the model predictions will not be valid.Inflation; Forecast; Ethiopia

Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production, which is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.Markets and Market Access,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Theory&Research,Food&Beverage Industry,Emerging Markets

Intimate partner violence and HIV in ten sub-Saharan African countries: what do the Demographic and Health Surveys tell us?

Background Many studies have identifi ed a signifi cant positive relation between intimate partner violence and HIV in women, but adjusted analyses have produced inconsistent results. We systematically assessed the association, and under what condition it holds, using nationally representative data from ten sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on physical, sexual, and emotional violence, and on the role of male controlling behaviour. Methods We assessed cross-sectional data from 12 Demographic and Health Surveys from ten countries in sub- Saharan Africa. The data are nationally representative for women aged 15–49 years. We estimated odds ratios using logistic regression with and without controls for demographic and socioeconomic factors and survey–region fi xed eff ects. Exposure was measured using physical, sexual, emotional violence, and male controlling behaviour, and combinations of these. The samples used were ever-married women, married women, and women in their fi rst union. Depending on specifi cation, the sample size varied between 11 231 and 45 550 women. Findings There were consistent and strong associations between HIV infection in women and physical violence, emotional violence, and male controlling behaviour (adjusted odds ratios ranged from 1·2 to 1·7; p values ranged from <0·0001 to 0·0058). The evidence for an association between sexual violence and HIV was weaker and only signifi cant in the sample with women in their fi rst union. The associations were dependent on the presence of controlling behaviour and a high regional HIV prevalence rate; when women were exposed to only physical, sexual, or emotional violence, and no controlling behaviour, or when HIV prevalence rates are lower than 5%, the adjusted odds ratios were, in general, close to 1 and insignifi cant. Interpretation The fi ndings indicate that male controlling behaviour in its own right, or as an indicator of ongoing or severe violence, puts women at risk of HIV infection. HIV prevention interventions should focus on high-prevalence areas and men with controlling behaviour, in addition to violence. Funding Swedish National Science Foundation and Gothenburg Centre of Globalization and Development, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices and non-food prices. Our main finding is that, in the long run, domestic food and non-food prices are determined by the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short to medium run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth affects food price inflation in the short run, though excess money supply does not seem to drive inflation in the long run. Our results suggest a challenging time ahead for Ethiopia, with the need for a multipronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account the cereal sector, as food staple growth is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.Agriculture; Cointegration analysis; Ethiopia; Exchange rate; Money demand; Food prices; Forecast; Inertia; Inflation

Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts

The purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will decrease substantially though inflation inertia may prevent a rapid stabilization of food prices. One of the main driving forces behind domestic inflation is agricultural output growth. While exchange rate and monetary policies can make a significant difference, it is crucial to take into consideration the development of the domestic cereal market. If international prices would start increasing again, they would to have a strong impact on Ethiopia, and the model predictions will not be valid

Associated risk factors of STIs and multiple sexual relationships among youths in Malawi

Having unprotected sex with multiple sexual partners (MSP) is the greatest risk factor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among youths. Young people with MSPs are less likely to use a condom and the greater the risk for STIs. This study examines the associated risk factors of STIs and multiple sexual partnerships among youths aged 15–24 years. The Malawi Demographic Health Survey 2010 data was used. Out of a sample of 2,987 males and 9,559 females aged 15–24 years, 2,026 males and 6,470 females were considered in the study. Chi square test and logistic regression techniques were performed. Analysis was performed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 22.Article writing fellowships were received from the Research Development Office, University of the Western Cape, 7535 Bellville, Cape Town, South Africa.Web of Scienc

Globalization, Peace & Stability, Governance, and Knowledge Economy

A previous analysis of the impact of formal institutions on the knowledge economy of 22 Middle-Eastern and Sub-Sahara African countries during the 1996-2010 time period concluded that formal institutions were necessary, but inadequate, determinants of the knowledge economy. To extend that study, this paper claims that globalization induces peace and stability, which affects governance and through governance the knowledge economy. The claim addresses one weakness of previous research that did not consider the effects on the knowledge economy of globalization. We model the proposition as a three-stage process in four hypotheses, and estimate each hypothesis using robust estimators that are capable of dealing with the usual statistical problems without sacrificing economic relevance and significance. The results indicate that globalization has varying effects on peace and stability, and peace and stability affect governance differently depending on what kind of globalization induces it. For instance, the effects on governance induced by globalization defined as trade are stronger than those resulting from globalization taken to be foreign direct investment. Hence, we conclude that foreign direct investment is not a powerful mechanism for stimulating and sustaining the knowledge economy in our sample of countries. However, since globalization-induced peace and stability have both positive and negative effects on governance simultaneously, we also conclude that while the prospect for knowledge economy in African countries is dim, it is still realistic and attainable as long as these countries continue to engage in the kind of globalization that does indeed induce peace and stability. We further conclude that there is a need for a sharper focus on economic and institutional governance than on general governance as one possible extension of this paper