Tinbergen Rules the Taylor Rule

This paper elaborates a simple model of growth with a Taylor-like monetary policy rule that includes inflation-targeting as a special case. When the inflation process originates in the product market, inflation-targeting locks in the unemployment rate prevailing at the time the policy matures. Although there is an apparent NAIRU and Phillips curve, this long-run position depends on initial conditions; in the presence of stochastic shocks, it would be path dependent. Even with an employment target in the Taylor Rule, the monetary authority will generally achieve a steady state that misses both its targets since there are multiple equilibria. With only one policy instrument, Tinbergen's Rule dictates that policy can only achieve one goal, which can take the form of a linear combination of the two targets. Eastern Economic Journal (2008) 34, 293–309. doi:10.1057/palgrave.eej.9050037

The NAIRU, Demand and Technology

We argue that the conventional NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model is a special case of a larger model of equilibrium unemployment, in which demand, investment, and endogenous technological progress do have lasting effects on steady-inflation unemployment. It follows that the labor market policy prescriptions (i.e. to drastically deregulate), following from the conventional NAIRU model, cannot be generalized. Empirical support for the extended model is provided by an econometric analysis for 20 OECD countries (1984–2004): demand factors are the dominant determinants of OECD unemployment. Eastern Economic Journal (2009) 35, 309–337. doi:10.1057/eej.2008.15