UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURE'S TRANSITION INTO THE 21ST CENTURY: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, CONSEQUENCES AND ALTERNATIVES

Advances in production, communication and transportation technologies as well as expectations of consumers, taxpayers, business people and rural residents continue to cause changes in agriculture and rural areas. These changes pose challenges, such as increased competition, as well as offer opportunities to produce specialized products and reach new markets. The opportunities for production agriculture appear to be 1) low-cost, large-scale commodity production, 2) medium- or small-scale commodity production combined with non-farm sources of income, or 3) production and marketing of specialized products. Emerging opportunities for rural businesses appear to be in serving production agriculture and agribusinesses by meeting their unique needs. These firms also can use advancing communication technologies to reach distant markets. Many business managers are adopting strategies that will shift their firm away from perfect competition. Opportunities for rural communities lie in using technology to efficiently provide services to rural residents. The size and composition of rural communities also will be redefined by advances in communication and transportation technologies. The decision of how to pursue these opportunities require a thorough understanding of what is occurring and thoughtful deliberations.Agribusiness, Production Economics,

DOES FCS ASSOCIATION SIZE AFFECT CREDIT AVAILABILITY?

An analysis of the characteristics of farm businesses by size of FCS direct lending association suggests that further consolidation of FCS lending should have limited negative impacts on credit availability. Commercial-sized farm businesses with FCS real estate debt appeared similar to those who obtained credit from competing lenders, but smaller associations and those with fewer stockholders per branch appeared to serve larger and more wealthy commercial-sized farms.credit availability, direct lending association, Agricultural Finance,

RURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR COMMERCIAL BANKERS

The report discusses commercial banks' role in supporting economic development in rural America. It details demographic and economic trends in rural America. It discusses a number of economic development programs available to commercial bankers and to private sector/public sector partnerships. Finally, the report proposes a set of new tools for commercial bankers to further strengthen their participation in rural community economic development. Note: Figures are not included in the machine readable copy--contact the authors for more information.demographic trends, economic trends, rural America, role of commercial banks, economic development programs, new tools for bankers, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Financial Economics,

ANALYSIS OF FARM FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR U.S. FARMERS

Significant changes under the 1996 FAIR Act and trade agreements are occurring in the U.S. farm sector. The changes will affect both the source and the magnitude of the business and financial risks that farmers will be required to manage. The objectives of this study were to investigate farmer plans regarding business expansion, timing of expansion, and expected financing of that business expansion and to analyze their financial services and risk management strategies. The study was based on data from a nationwide survey of subscribers to Top Operator farm magazine. The data were categorized into six groups for analysis: demographics, intergenerational transfer, debt characteristics, lender relationships, business expansion, and farmer expectations of their lenders. Statistical techniques were used to evaluate differences among farmers across regions of the country, types of farm businesses, and sizes of farm businesses.Farm credit, expansion plans, debt-to-asset ratio, farm demographics, financial tools, credit sources, financial services, non-traditional lending, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty,

1998 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS 1997-2007

Net farm income for all representative farms except small size and low profit farms in 2007 will be higher than in 1998. Net farm income for small and low profit farms will remain the same and decrease, respectively, for the forecasting period. Cropland prices are projected to fall in all regions of North Dakota after having peaked in 1997. Cash rental rates are projected to follow cropland prices. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms fall across the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low profit and small size farms are higher than those for large and high profit farms.Net farm income, debt-to-asset ratios, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, Production Economics,

IMPACTS OF THE FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL IMPROVEMENT AND REFORM ACT OF 1996 (FAIR ACT) ON THE NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR Act) decouples government farm subsidy payments from both price and production and provides farmers with nearly complete planting flexibility. Government spending under this act will be limited to $35.63 billion for 1996-2002 period. The net farm income for all six representative farms under the 1996 FAIR Act is projected to be higher than under the 1990 farm act early in the forecast period and lower after 1999 under the 1996 FAIR Act. Cropland prices are projected to fall 19.8% between 1996 and 2002 under the 1996 FAIR Act, while cropland prices are projected to fall 18.5% under the 1990 farm act. Cash rental rates are projected to follow cropland prices. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms, although rising across the forecast period, do not reach levels that imperil credit- worthiness, but in the case of the low profit farm and small size farm the debt-to-asset ratios rise to a level that may imperil credit-worthiness on new borrowing. Note: Figures are not included in the machine readable file--contact the authors for copies.FAIR Act, net farm income, debt-to-asset ratio, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, Agricultural and Food Policy,

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF THE CATTLE FEEDING INDUSTRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN LAKES STATES - SUMMARY

The five-state study area of the Northern Plains and Western Lakes States, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, has adequate feed supplies and feeder cattle to markedly increase cattle feeding. Feed costs in these states have historically been lower than in the Southern Plains States. However, higher transportation costs appear to offset that advantage. Close access to slaughter plants in these states could offset that transportation disadvantage. Backgrounding of cattle appears to be quite profitable and cattle feeding, especially in larger sized feedlots, can be profitable. However, the cattle feeding industry has an increasing level of excess capacity. To be successful, new feedlots in the Northern Plains and Western Lakes States would need cost efficiencies to offset higher production costs, compared to Nebraska and Kansas, or would need to produce for a niche market unaffected by the lower operating costs of already established feedlots in the Central and Southern Plains States. Finally, a range of strategies are available in developing value-added cattle production in the Northern Plains and Western Lakes States. These strategies embody differing levels of capital investment, and involve different levels of risk and profitability.cattle feeding, Northern Plains, economies of scale, cooperative ownership, entrance strategies, Production Economics,