Estimating moose population parameters from aerial surveys

Successful moose management depends on knowledge of population dynamics. The principal parameters required are size, rate of change, recruitment, sex composition, and mortality. Moose management in Alaska has been severely hampered by the lack of good estimates of these parameters, and unfortunately, this lack contributed to the decline of many Alaskan moose populations during the 1970s (e.g., Gasaway et al. 1983). The problems were: (1) population size not adequately estimated, (2) rapid rates of decline not acknowledged until populations were low, (3) meaningful recruitment rates were not available in the absence of good population estimates, and (4) calf and adult mortality rates were grossly underestimated. Frustration of moose managers working with inadequate data led to development of aerial survey procedures that yield minimally biased, sufficiently precise estimates of population parameters for most Alaskan moose management and research. This manual describes these procedures. Development of these procedures would have been impossible without the inspiration, support, advice, and criticism of many colleagues. We thank these colleagues for their contributions. Dale Haggstrom and Dave Kelleyhouse helped develop flight patterns, tested and improved early sampling designs, and as moose managers, put these procedures into routine use. Pilots Bill Lentsch and Pete Haggland were instrumental in developing and testing aerial surveying techniques. Their interest and dedication to improving moose management made them valuable allies. Statisticians Dana Thomas of the University of Alaska and W. Scott Overton of Oregon State University provided advice on variance approximations for the population estimator. Warren Ballard, Sterling Miller, SuzAnne Miller, Doug Larsen, and Wayne Kale tested procedures and provided valuable criticisms and suggestions. Jim Raymond initially programmed a portable calculator to make lengthy calculation simple, fast, and error-free. Angie Babcock, Lisa Ingalls, Vicky Leffingwell, and Laura McManus patiently typed several versions of this manual. John Coady and Oliver Burris provided continuous moral and financial support for a 3-year project that lasted 6 years. Joan Barnett, Rodney Boetje, Steven Peterson, and Wayne Regelin of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game provided helpful editorial suggestions in previous drafts. Finally, we thank referees David Anderson of the Utah Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Vincent Schultz of Washington State University, and James Peek, E. "Oz" Garton, and Mike Samuel of the University of Idaho whose comments and suggestions improved this manual. This project was funded by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game through Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration Projects W-17-9 through W-22-1

New variables, the gravitational action, and boosted quasilocal stress-energy-momentum

This paper presents a complete set of quasilocal densities which describe the stress-energy-momentum content of the gravitational field and which are built with Ashtekar variables. The densities are defined on a two-surface $B$ which bounds a generic spacelike hypersurface $\Sigma$ of spacetime. The method used to derive the set of quasilocal densities is a Hamilton-Jacobi analysis of a suitable covariant action principle for the Ashtekar variables. As such, the theory presented here is an Ashtekar-variable reformulation of the metric theory of quasilocal stress-energy-momentum originally due to Brown and York. This work also investigates how the quasilocal densities behave under generalized boosts, i. e. switches of the $\Sigma$ slice spanning $B$. It is shown that under such boosts the densities behave in a manner which is similar to the simple boost law for energy-momentum four-vectors in special relativity. The developed formalism is used to obtain a collection of two-surface or boost invariants. With these invariants, one may ``build" several different mass definitions in general relativity, such as the Hawking expression. Also discussed in detail in this paper is the canonical action principle as applied to bounded spacetime regions with ``sharp corners."Comment: Revtex, 41 Pages, 4 figures added. Final version has been revised and improved quite a bit. To appear in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Detection of circulating tumour DNA is associated with inferior outcomes in Ewing sarcoma and osteosarcoma: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

BackgroundNew prognostic markers are needed to identify patients with Ewing sarcoma (EWS) and osteosarcoma unlikely to benefit from standard therapy. We describe the incidence and association with outcome of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) using next-generation sequencing (NGS) assays.MethodsA NGS hybrid capture assay and an ultra-low-pass whole-genome sequencing assay were used to detect ctDNA in banked plasma from patients with EWS and osteosarcoma, respectively. Patients were coded as positive or negative for ctDNA and tested for association with clinical features and outcome.ResultsThe analytic cohort included 94 patients with EWS (82% from initial diagnosis) and 72 patients with primary localised osteosarcoma (100% from initial diagnosis). ctDNA was detectable in 53% and 57% of newly diagnosed patients with EWS and osteosarcoma, respectively. Among patients with newly diagnosed localised EWS, detectable ctDNA was associated with inferior 3-year event-free survival (48.6% vs. 82.1%; p = 0.006) and overall survival (79.8% vs. 92.6%; p = 0.01). In both EWS and osteosarcoma, risk of event and death increased with ctDNA levels.ConclusionsNGS assays agnostic of primary tumour sequencing results detect ctDNA in half of the plasma samples from patients with newly diagnosed EWS and osteosarcoma. Detectable ctDNA is associated with inferior outcomes

BROWSE REMOVAL, PLANT CONDITION, AND TWINNING RATES BEFORE AND AFTER SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN MOOSE DENSITY

We monitored forage-based indices of intraspecific  competition at changing moose (Alces alces) densities to  gauge short-term, density-dependent environmental feedback and to ultimately improve management of moose for elevated sustained yield. In 4 areas of interior Alaska where moose density recently changed, we evaluated the magnitude of change among 4 browse indices: proportional offtake of current annual growth biomass (OFTK), proportion of current twigs that were browsed (PTB), mean twig diameter at point of browsing (DPB), and proportion of plants with broomed architecture. In 1 area where moose density increased 100% in 6 years following effective predation control, browse removal increased 138% for OFTK, 20% for PTB, and 16–42% for DPB of primary browse species, with a 44% increase in brooming. We also studied 3 areas where moose density declined 31–41% following elevated antlerless harvests of 2–4 years duration. In these areas (with intervals of 3–12 years between browse surveys) we found declines of 30–40% in OFTK, 26–68% in PTB, and 11–37% in DPB, but changes in plant architecture were inconsistent. The proportion of parturient cows with neonate twins did not change between browse surveys, presumably because of a substantial lag time influenced by life history of the dominant reproductive cohorts and little change in browse nutrient content and digestibility. Of the 4 browse indices studied, proportional OFTK most consistently reflected the direction and magnitude of short-term changes in moose density. Area-specific measures of habitat and animal conditions at high moose density provided an objective means for gauging the capacity of the respective ecosystems to support moose and maintain forage plants. We used these measures of winter forage and moose condition to justify implementing harvest strategies and to ultimately reduce high moose densities below levels of strong negative feedback

The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background This study aimed to assess the relationship between cold temperature and daily mortality in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI), and to explore any differences in the population responses between the two jurisdictions. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to examine this relationship in two adult national populations, between 1984 and 2007. Daily mortality risk was examined in association with exposure to daily maximum temperatures on the same day and up to 6 weeks preceding death, during the winter (December-February) and cold period (October-March), using distributed lag models. Model stratification by age and gender assessed for modification of the cold weather-mortality relationship. Results In the ROI, the impact of cold weather in winter persisted up to 35 days, with a cumulative mortality increase for all-causes of 6.4% (95%CI=4.8%-7.9%) in relation to every 1oC drop in daily maximum temperature, similar increases for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke, and twice as much for respiratory causes. In NI, these associations were less pronounced for CVD causes, and overall extended up to 28 days. Effects of cold weather on mortality increased with age in both jurisdictions, and some suggestive gender differences were observed. Conclusions The study findings indicated strong cold weather-mortality associations in the island of Ireland; these effects were less persistent, and for CVD mortality, smaller in NI than in the ROI. Together with suggestive differences in associations by age and gender between the two Irish jurisdictions, the findings suggest potential contribution of underlying societal differences, and require further exploration. The evidence provided here will hope to contribute to the current efforts to modify fuel policy and reduce winter mortality in Ireland

Comparison of Pittsburgh compound B and florbetapir in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies.

IntroductionQuantitative in vivo measurement of brain amyloid burden is important for both research and clinical purposes. However, the existence of multiple imaging tracers presents challenges to the interpretation of such measurements. This study presents a direct comparison of Pittsburgh compound B-based and florbetapir-based amyloid imaging in the same participants from two independent cohorts using a crossover design.MethodsPittsburgh compound B and florbetapir amyloid PET imaging data from three different cohorts were analyzed using previously established pipelines to obtain global amyloid burden measurements. These measurements were converted to the Centiloid scale to allow fair comparison between the two tracers. The mean and inter-individual variability of the two tracers were compared using multivariate linear models both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.ResultsGlobal amyloid burden measured using the two tracers were strongly correlated in both cohorts. However, higher variability was observed when florbetapir was used as the imaging tracer. The variability may be partially caused by white matter signal as partial volume correction reduces the variability and improves the correlations between the two tracers. Amyloid burden measured using both tracers was found to be in association with clinical and psychometric measurements. Longitudinal comparison of the two tracers was also performed in similar but separate cohorts whose baseline amyloid load was considered elevated (i.e., amyloid positive). No significant difference was detected in the average annualized rate of change measurements made with these two tracers.DiscussionAlthough the amyloid burden measurements were quite similar using these two tracers as expected, difference was observable even after conversion into the Centiloid scale. Further investigation is warranted to identify optimal strategies to harmonize amyloid imaging data acquired using different tracers

Dietary Supplementation with Soluble Plantain Non-Starch Polysaccharides Inhibits Intestinal Invasion of Salmonella Typhimurium in the Chicken

Soluble fibres (non-starch polysaccharides, NSP) from edible plants but particularly plantain banana (Musa spp.), have been shown in vitro and ex vivo to prevent various enteric pathogens from adhering to, or translocating across, the human intestinal epithelium, a property that we have termed contrabiotic. Here we report that dietary plantain fibre prevents invasion of the chicken intestinal mucosa by Salmonella. In vivo experiments were performed with chicks fed from hatch on a pellet diet containing soluble plantain NSP (0 to 200 mg/d) and orally infected with S.Typhimurium 4/74 at 8 d of age. Birds were sacrificed 3, 6 and 10 d post-infection. Bacteria were enumerated from liver, spleen and caecal contents. In vitro studies were performed using chicken caecal crypts and porcine intestinal epithelial cells infected with Salmonella enterica serovars following pre-treatment separately with soluble plantain NSP and acidic or neutral polysaccharide fractions of plantain NSP, each compared with saline vehicle. Bacterial adherence and invasion were assessed by gentamicin protection assay. In vivo dietary supplementation with plantain NSP 50 mg/d reduced invasion by S.Typhimurium, as reflected by viable bacterial counts from splenic tissue, by 98.9% (95% CI, 98.1–99.7; P<0.0001). In vitro studies confirmed that plantain NSP (5–10 mg/ml) inhibited adhesion of S.Typhimurium 4/74 to a porcine epithelial cell-line (73% mean inhibition (95% CI, 64–81); P<0.001) and to primary chick caecal crypts (82% mean inhibition (95% CI, 75–90); P<0.001). Adherence inhibition was shown to be mediated via an effect on the epithelial cells and Ussing chamber experiments with ex-vivo human ileal mucosa showed that this effect was associated with increased short circuit current but no change in electrical resistance. The inhibitory activity of plantain NSP lay mainly within the acidic/pectic (homogalacturonan-rich) component. Supplementation of chick feed with plantain NSP was well tolerated and shows promise as a simple approach for reducing invasive salmonellosis