Taking stock after a decade: Does the ‘thresholds of potential concern’ concept need a socio-ecological revamp?

The concept of thresholds of potential concern (TPCs) as implemented for the last decade in strategic adaptive management in South African National Parks (SANParks), has proved workable in practice in a number of instances, but in others appears beset by conceptual and practical limitations or barriers. Three common challenges relate to (1) situations where there is uncertainty about whether and where real thresholds exist, (2) whether and how preferences and other social constructs, as opposed to what were seen as objective biophysical variables only, can be used for TPCs and (3) whether it is admissible to adjust TPCs to allow for variations in societal behaviour, in particular rate of management response. All three challenges arise in the face of TPC objectivity implied by the original definition, and in the light of the original view that TPCs be set some distance prior to a presumed ecological threshold. This paper suggests that the three challenges can be partly or largely dealt with by the use of a wider socio-ecological view, rather than seeing TPCs in isolation or as being only biophysical. Also, while detection of abrupt changes is helpful, it makes little practical difference if some TPCs happen to describe linear processes. The very decision to intervene can induce an abrupt change. Once a wider socio-ecological approach is employed, it becomes necessary for the user to specify the particular usage envisaged for the TPC, for instance, whether it is considered a preference and whether that preference is believed in any way to be related to an ecological threshold. In all cases, it is recommended that some form of explicit representation of the socio- ecological view is constructed – we suggest a cause-and-effect diagram (and give an example generated through a thought experiment) which describes presumed relationships in the subsystem of interest. This provides a broader systemic context and a shared understanding, and has implications for considering scenarios and management alternatives. For practical reasons, from the several states and processes in such a subsystem, only a few links can be chosen on which to base particular TPCs. If we have understood the subsystem well enough, these few links, at each of which a TPC is developed, will act as diagnostic points at which we can monitor the performance of the subsystem adequately. A broadened definition of a TPC is presented, supporting this approach. Conservation implications: The concept of thresholds (initially ecological thresholds) has started influencing conservation management practice, a commonly-used formulation for management decision-making being the threshold of potential concern (TPC). Practical TPC usage can often be improved by moving away from its initially pure ecological outlook, rather framing understanding through an interlinked socio-ecological view

From numbers to ecosystems and biodiversity: A mechanistic approach to monitoring

Diverse political, cultural and biological needs epitomise the contrasting demands impacting on the mandate of the South African National Parks (SANParks) to maintain biological diversity. Systems-based approaches and strategic adaptive management (learn by doing) enable SANParks to accommodate these demands. However, such a management strategy creates new information needs, which require an appropriate analytical approach. We use conceptual links between objectives, indicators, mechanisms and modulators to identify key concerns in the context of and related to management objectives. Although our suggested monitoring designs are based mostly on defined or predicted underlying mechanisms of a concern, SANParks requires inventory monitoring to evaluate its key mandate. We therefore propose a predictive inventory approach based on species assemblages related to habitat preferences. Inventories alone may not always adequately serve unpacking of mechanisms: in some cases population size needs to be estimated to meet the information needs of management strategies, but actual population sizes may indirectly affect how the species impact on other values. In addition, ecosystem objectives require multivariate assessments of key communities, which can be used in trend analysis. SANParks therefore needs to know how to detect and define trends efficiently, which, in turn, requires precision of measures of variables. Conservation implications: Current research needs with regard to monitoring should focus on defining designs to yield optimal precision whilst taking methodology, survey trade-offs and analytical approaches into account. Use of these directives and research will guide monitoring during evaluation of SANParks objectives at various scales

Stem growth of woody species at the Nkuhlu exclosures, Kruger National Park: 2006–2010

An important aspect of managing African conservation areas involves understanding how large herbivores affect woody plant growth. Yet, data on growth rates of woody species in savannas are scarce, despite its critical importance for developing models to guide ecosystem management. What effect do browsing and season have on woody stem growth? Assuming no growth happens in the dry season, browsing should reduce stem growth in the wet season only. Secondly, do functional species groups differ in stem growth? For example, assuming fine-leaved, spiny species’ growth is not compromised by carbon-based chemical defences, they should grow faster than broad-leaved, chemically defended species. Dendrometers were fixed at 20 cm in height on the main stems of 244 random plants of six woody species in three plots (all large herbivores excluded, partial exclusion, and control) and observed from late 2006 to early 2010. Average monthly increment (AMI) per dendrometer and season (dry, wet) was calculated and the interaction between plot and season tested per species, controlling for initial stem girth. AMIs of Combretum apiculatum, Dichrostachys cinerea and Grewia flavescens were zero in the dry season, whilst those of Acacia exuvialis, Acacia grandicornuta and Euclea divinorum were either positive or negative in the dry season. Wet-season AMI of D. cinerea and dry-season AMI of G. flavescens tended to be reduced by browser exclusion. Net AMI (sum of the seasonal AMIs) was tested per species, but results suggested that only D. cinerea tended to be affected by browser exclusion. The results also suggested that stem radial growth of some fast-growing species is more prone to reduction by browser exclusion than the growth of other species, potentially reducing their competitiveness and increasing their risk of extirpation. Finally, the usefulness of grouping woody species into simple functional groups (e.g. fine-leaved vs. broad-leaved) for ecosystem management purposes in savannas requires further consideration. Conservation implications: Growth rates of woody plants are important parameters in savanna models, but data are scarce. Monitoring dendrometers in manipulative situations over several years can help fill that gap. Results of such studies can be used to identify species prone to high risk of extirpation

Evaluating herbivore management outcomes and associated vegetation impacts

African savannas are characterised by temporal and spatial fluxes that are linked to fluxes in herbivore populations and vegetation structure and composition. We need to be concerned about these fluxes only when management actions cause the system to shift towards a less desired state. Large herbivores are a key attribute of African savannas and are important for tourism and biodiversity. Large protected areas such as the Kruger National Park (KNP) manage for high biodiversity as the desired state, whilst private protected areas, such as those adjacent to the KNP, generally manage for high income. Biodiversity, sustainability and economic indicators are thus required to flag thresholds of potential concern (TPCs) that may result in a particular set of objectives not being achieved. In large conservation areas such as the KNP, vegetation changes that result from herbivore impact, or lack thereof, affect biodiversity and TPCs are used to indicate unacceptable change leading to a possible loss of biodiversity; in private protected areas the loss of large herbivores is seen as an important indicator of economic loss. Therefore, the first-level indicators aim to evaluate the forage available to sustain grazers without deleteriously affecting the vegetation composition, structure and basal cover. Various approaches to monitoring for these indicators were considered and the importance of the selection of sites that are representative of the intensity of herbivore use is emphasised. The most crucial step in the adaptive management process is the feedback of information to inform management decisions and enable learning. Feedback loops tend to be more efficient where the organisation’s vision is focused on, for example, economic gain, than in larger protected areas, such as the KNP, where the vision to conserve biodiversity is broader and more complex. Conservation implications: In rangeland, optimising herbivore numbers to achieve the management objectives without causing unacceptable or irreversible change in the vegetation is challenging. This manuscript explores different avenues to evaluate herbivore impact and the outcomes of management approaches that may affect vegetation