EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION TARGETING IN MOROCCO AND TUNISIA

Morocco and Tunisia have started to open their markets to international trade and capital flows in order to bolster investment and growth. These liberalization programs require important adjustments in their economic policies, in particular their exchange rate regimes and monetary policies. This objective of this paper is to examine why Morocco and Tunisia should progressively opt for greater exchange rate flexibility as well as a monetary policy based on inflation targeting rather than exchange rate targeting and money-growth rules, as their markets are increasingly liberalized. First, their past economic policies are reviewed and analyzed. Second, the theoretical sources of inflation (cost push and demand pull factors as well as factors due to financial liberalization) are identified. Third, a Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities is estimated for Morocco and Tunisia to provide important information concerning the mechanisms underlying inflation regime changes. The empirical results provide evidence that high inflation regimes are more persistent in Morocco than in Tunisia, and that inflation regime switches can be explained by external shocks in the 1970s, and by the sound fiscal and monetary policies in the mid-1980s. Finally the institutional and operational conditions for the success of an inflation-targeting framework are outlined.Markov switching; Inflation; Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Central Banks; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Morocco; Tunisia

La Polynésie Française et l'Euro

The legal status of French Polynesia has important implications for the local economy, in particular for its currency, the CFP franc. A resolution passed on January 19, 2006 by the Assembly of French Polynesia shows the political will to replace this currency by the euro. This article explains the institutional procedures necessary for a possible switch to the euro in French Polynesia, and analyses its economic advantages and drawbacks.The conclusion is that entering the euro zone would be in the best interests of French Polynesia

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Do Macroeconomic Factors Help In Predicting International Equity Risk Premia?: Testing The Out-Of-Sample Accuracy Of Linear And Nonlinear Forecasts

This paper investigates whether macroeconomic variables can improve the predictability of equity risk premia. Ex ante forecasts of excess returns are generated recursively from both linear regression analysis and nonlinear neural networks. Empirical results suggest that these forecasts are superior to the random walk predicator at almost all horizons in the U.S., Japanese, British and German stock markets. However, there does not appear to be a significant difference between linear and nonlinear forecasts

Tourism, Insularity and Remoteness: a Gravity-Based Approach

International audienc

Tourism, Insularity and Remoteness: a Gravity-Based Approach

International audienc

Tourism in Pacific Islands: a comparative study based on a gravity model

International audienc

Tourism in Pacific Islands: a comparative study based on a gravity model

International audienc

Croissance économique et productivité en Polynésie française: une analyse sur longue période

International audienc

The Agricultural Origins of Thrift, Sharing, and Development

International audienc