Progress toward developing a practical societal response to severe convection (2005 EGU Sergei Soloviev Medal Lecture)

A review of severe convection in the context of geophysical hazards is given. Societal responses to geophysical hazards depend, in part, on the ability to forecast the events and the degree of certainty with which forecasts can be made. In particular, the spatio-temporal specificity and lead time of those forecasts are critical issues. However, societal responses to geophysical hazards are not only dependent on forecasting. Even perfect forecasts might not be sufficient for a meaningful societal response without the development of considerable infrastructure to allow a society to respond properly and in time to mitigate the hazard. Geophysical hazards of extreme magnitude are rare events, a fact that tends to make funding support for appropriate preparations difficult to obtain. Focusing on tornadoes as a prototypical hazard from severe convective storms, the infrastructure for dealing with them in the USA is reviewed. Worldwide implications of the experience with severe convective storms in the USA are discussed, with an emphasis on its relevance to the situation in Europe

Play and Developmental Outcomes in Infant Siblings of Children with Autism

We observed infant siblings of children with autism later diagnosed with ASD (ASD siblings; n = 17), infant siblings of children with autism with and without other delays (Other Delays and No Delays siblings; n = 12 and n = 19, respectively) and typically developing controls (TD controls; n = 19) during a free-play task at 18 months of age. Functional, symbolic, and repeated play actions were coded. ASD siblings showed fewer functional and more non-functional repeated play behaviors than TD controls. Other Delays and No Delays siblings showed more non-functional repeated play than TD controls. Group differences disappeared with the inclusion of verbal mental age. Play as an early indicator of autism and its relationship to the broader autism phenotype is discussed

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Short- duration (1-3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short- duration and long- duration (\textgreater1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K-1), while in some regions, increases in short- duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large- scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short- duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks

Evaluation of WRF Forecasts of Tornadic and Nontornadic Outbreaks when Initialized with Synoptic-Scale Input

Uncertainty exists concerning the links between synoptic-scale processes and tornado outbreaks. With continuously improving computer technology, a large number of high-resolution model simulations can be conducted to study these outbreaks to the storm scale, to determine the degree to which synoptic-scale processes appear to influence the occurrence of tornado outbreaks, and to determine how far in advance these processes are important. To this end, 50 tornado outbreak simulations are compared with 50 primarily nontornadic outbreak simulations initialized with synoptic-scale input using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model to determine if the model is able to distinguish the outbreak type 1, 2, and 3 days in advance of the event. The model simulations cannot resolve tornadoes explicitly; thus, the use of meteorological covariates (in the form of numerous severe-weather parameters) is necessary to determine whether or not the model is predicting a tornado outbreak. Results indicate that, using the covariates, the WRF model can discriminate outbreak type consistently at least up to 3 days in advance. The severe-weather parameters that are most helpful in discriminating between outbreak types include low-level and deep-layer shear variables and the lifting condensation level. An analysis of the spatial structures and temporal evolution, as well as the magnitudes, of the severe-weather parameters is critical to diagnose the outbreak type correctly. Thermodynamic instability parameters are not helpful in distinguishing the outbreak type, primarily because of a strong seasonal dependence and convective modification in the simulations