Human well-being and in-work benefits : a randomized controlled trial

Many politicians believe they can intervene in the economy to improve people’s lives. But can they? In a social experiment carried out in the United Kingdom, extensive in-work support was randomly assigned among 16,000 disadvantaged people. We follow a sub-sample of 3,500 single parents for 5 ensuing years. The results reveal a remarkable, and troubling, finding. Long after eligibility had ceased, the treated individuals had substantially lower psychological well- being, worried more about money, and were increasingly prone to debt. Thus helping people apparently hurt them. We discuss a behavioral framework consistent with our findings and reflect on implications for policy

A review of the matching process for the impact analysis of the HMP Peterborough Social Impact Bond

In 2010, the world’s first Social Impact Bond (SIB) was launched at Peterborough Prison. It was used to fund an intervention – ‘The One Service’ – aimed at reducing the reoffending among prisoners discharged after serving a sentence of less than 12 months. Under the terms of the SIB, investors are paid according to how successful the One Service is in reducing reconvictions. If a minimum threshold of a 7.5% reduction in reconviction events is reached across the pilot, payment is triggered. Additionally, there is an option to trigger an early payment if a 10% reduction is noted in the number of reconviction events in individual cohorts. A propensity score matching (PSM) approach was used to estimate the impact. For cohort 1, the impact was estimated, by a previous team of independent assessors, to be a reduction in reconviction events of 8.4% (Jolliffe and Hedderman, 2014). This report reviews the PSM approach, prompted in part by the desire to understand the reasons behind the differences in reconviction rates between prisoners discharged from HMP Peterborough and prisoners discharged from other prisons. Its primary aim is to identify whether there is a need to revise the approach taken before it is applied to cohort 2 (and the final cohort - the weighted mean of cohort 1 and cohort 2). To do this, various amendments to the methodology were explored. It was not possible to replicate the results of Jolliffe and Hedderman (2014). This should perhaps be no surprise given the difficulties often encountered with replication attempts. However, the difference between the replication result and the Jolliffe and Hedderman (2014) result was not statistically significant. Since this review did not identify any clear improvement in the matching process, the conclusion is that the cohort 1 approach be maintained. We also recommend an adjustment to the sample selection in cohort 2. It is important to note that this recommendation is based on the analysis of cohort 1 data and is not informed by cohort 2 reoffending data

What young English people do once they reach school-leaving age: A cross-cohort comparison for the last 30 years

This paper examines how young people’s early transitions into the labour market have changed between cohorts born in 1958, 1970, 1980, and 1990. We use sequence analysis to characterise transition patterns and identify three distinct pathways in all cohorts. An ‘Entering the Labour Market’ group has declined significantly in size (from 91% in the earliest cohort, to 37% in the most recent), an ‘Accumulating Human Capital’ group has grown in its place (from 4% to 51%), but also a ‘Potentially Difficult Transition’ group has grown alongside this, reaching 12% in the most recent cohort. These trends appear to reflect behavioural rather than compositional changes. Females and those who are from a non-white ethnic background have gone from being more likely to be in the ‘Potentially Difficult Transition’ group, to being less likely. Coming from a low socio-economic status background has remained a strong predictor of having a transition of this type across all four cohorts. These early transitions are important, not least since we show they are highly predictive of longer-term outcomes

Peterborough social impact bond: final report on cohort 2 analysis

In 2010, the world’s first Social Impact Bond (SIB) was launched at Peterborough Prison. It was used to fund an intervention – ‘The One Service’ – aimed at reducing the reoffending among prisoners discharged after serving a sentence of less than 12 months. Under the terms of the SIB, investors are paid according to how successful the One Service is in reducing reconvictions. If a minimum threshold of a 7.5% reduction in reconviction events is reached across the pilot, payment is triggered. Additionally, there is an option to trigger an early payment if a 10% reduction is noted in the number of reconviction events in individual cohorts. A propensity score matching (PSM) approach was used to estimate impact. For cohort 1, the impact was estimated, by a previous team of independent assessors, to be a reduction in reconviction events of 8.4% (Jolliffe and Hedderman, 2014). Anders and Dorsett (2017) reviewed the PSM approach, prompted in part by the desire to understand the reasons behind the differences in reconviction rates between prisoners discharged from HMP Peterborough and prisoners discharged from other prisons. Following their review, Anders and Dorsett (2017) recommended that the cohort 1 approach be maintained for cohort 2. They also recommended an adjustment to the sample selection in Cohort 2. It is important to note that this recommendation was based on the analysis of cohort 1 data and was not informed by cohort 2 reoffending data. Matching was performed for cohort 2 using a dataset that excluded reoffending data. We estimate that the One Service reduced the number of reconviction events among those discharged from HMP Peterborough by 9.7% for cohort 2. The reduction across both cohorts is estimated to be 9.0%, which reached the minimum threshold of 7.5% across all cohorts. This reduction is sufficient to trigger an outcome payment

Adapted Grasses for Texas Pastures.

2 p

Forage Species for Texas.

4 p

Human Well-being and In-Work Benefits: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Many politicians believe they can intervene in the economy to improve people's lives. But can they? In a social experiment carried out in the United Kingdom, extensive in-work support was randomly assigned among 16,000 disadvantaged people. We follow a sub-sample of 3,500 single parents for 5 ensuing years. The results reveal a remarkable, and troubling, finding. Long after eligibility had ceased, the treated individuals had substantially lower psychological well-being, worried more about money, and were increasingly prone to debt. Thus helping people apparently hurt them. We discuss a behavioral framework consistent with our findings and reflect on implications for policy

Forage Legumes for Texas.

2 p