Regional integration and industrial growth among developing countries - the case of three ASEAN members

Has the revival of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the early 1990s affected the industrial growth of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines? The author uses two mechanisms to capture this potential impact: scale effects, and intermediate imports variety. She performs the analysis on twenty two industries (at the three-digit level of the International Standard Industrial Classification) over the period 1971-95. The results show significant heterogeneity in industry-level returns to scale. Moreover, the three ASEAN members have very small, mostly negative cross-industry scale effects. As a result, they may not achieve large, or across-the-board gains from their regional arrangement through scale effects. The author finds unexpected results with respect to the role of intermediate imports variety in industrial growth. She finds no support for the hypothesis that non-regional (rest of the world) suppliers, and goods variety have a positive effect on ASEAN industries through the channel of imported intermediate inputs. The regional variety measure, however, seems to have a positive effect on the output growth of a handful of industries. This result seems due to the fact that these countries have long had a strong intra-regional, and intra-industry trade, whose history predates, and outweighs the ASEAN revival.Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Water and Industry,Public Health Promotion,Environmental Economics&Policies,Water and Industry,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT

Potential benefits and risks of increased aid flows to Burundi

Burundi has experienced a significant increase in aid flows in recent years. Currently, about half of the budget is funded by aid, mostly grants. The high external assistance has, however, not yet translated into high and sustainable growth rates. This paper analyzes (i) the policy response of the government to the aid surge and its impact on macroeconomic variables; and (ii) the allocation of external assistance and its implications for growth. Since not all aid affects economic development in the same way, aid disbursements are disaggregated by sector as well as by their lag in impacting growth. The analysis shows that Burundi has mostly spent and absorbed increased aid flows, but has until now not suffered significantly from the possible negative effects of an appreciating exchange rate and the related loss of competitiveness, but the possibility of a Dutch disease effect remains a risk. The country’s low growth performance, despite high aid inflows, is not necessarily a sign that aid is ineffective or exceeding Burundi’s absorptive capacity. It reflects that a large share of aid has been allocated to either humanitarian and emergency aid or long-run growth enhancing sectors. Therefore, the lagged impact of aid on economic growth is not yet visible. Furthermore, the composition of the domestically financed budget is biased toward recurrent spending, and therefore not directly growth enhancing. In addition, low and often unpredictable aid disbursement ratios aggravate the bias away from investment and toward government consumption. To boost short-term growth, the share of aid allocated to productive sectors, such as agriculture and the supporting infrastructure, needs to be increased. Firm commitments and timely disbursements of aid by donors are essential and the Government of Burundi needs to strengthen its capacity and mechanisms for donor coordination.Debt Markets,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Public Sector Expenditure Policy,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Theory&Research

Politically optimal tariffs : an application to Egypt

Egyptian economic history has been influenced by the import-substitution industrialization approach to development, dating back to Gamal Abdel Nasser's Pan-Arabic and socialist movement in the 1950s. Two major waves of liberalization have marked the government's efforts to rationalize and modernize the economy-the Infitah (opening) promoted by Anwar Sadat in the 1980s, and further trade and privatization efforts by Hosni Mubarak in the 1990s. Nonetheless, the extent of trade liberalization does not compare well with similar countries. Despite a decade of liberalization, the trade regime is characterized by deliberate and gradual reforms. By 1999 these reforms had led to average tariffs close to 30 percent, with high dispersion and escalation, well above those in comparable countries. provide a political economy analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt in general, and in its specific industries. They present the theoretical and empirical models and discuss the results. The authors also explore the potential effects of the Euro-Med agreement for Egypt The authors provide a political economy analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt in general, and in its specific industries. They present the theoretical and empirical models and discuss the results. The authors also explore the potential effects of the Euro-Med agreement for Egypt. The political economy analysis of the Egyptian tariff structure identifies two sets of highly protected sectors. Overprotected industries are defined as those with actual tariffs at least 25 percent higher than what is predicted by the political economy variables. The political determinants can be divided into two groups: the lobbying and counter-lobbying forces. First, the lobbying strength of specific capital in each sector is proxied by the degree of industry concentration, the labor-capital ratio, and the import penetration ratio. Second, counter-lobbying in factor or input markets is proxied by wage level, degree of processing in the industry, and degree of intra-industry trade. Using this methodology, the authors identify two sets of products: six products where tariff cuts will not be politically costly, and six where it will be politically costly, In both cases, lowering tariffs will improve resource allocation and efficiency in the industries involved. The prospects of a free trade area with Europe should also help reduce tariffs in sectors where a high share of production is exported or imported from Europe. If products are exported to Europe, the potential free access to the European market should more than compensate for any tariff reductions in the local market. On the other hand, if products are heavily imported from Europe, the preferential access for European exporters will tend to significantly increase their presence in the Egyptian market. This in turn will reduce the"protective"aspect of external tariffs in sectors with large import penetration as competition will be coming from Europe. The EU-Egypt agreement includes a lengthy (19 years) structure of tariff reduction. This structure will lead to increased effective rates of protection for the first eight years of its implementation, added economic distortions, and inefficient use of resources. The Egyptian authorities may want to consider speeding up the Euro-Med schedule of liberalization to mitigate an increase in effective rates of protection. Furthermore, special effort should be made to reduce external tariffs on semi-processed and processed goods to attenuate the expected negative effects of the rise in effective rates of protection. More generally, to prevent the high potential for trade diversion associated with Egypt's high tariffs, a simultaneous reduction in Egypt's external tariffs should accompany the EU-Egypt agreement.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade Policy,Export Competitiveness,Water and Industry,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Export Competitiveness,Trade Policy

South-South regional integration and industrial growth : the case of the Andean Pact

Has the revival of the Andean Pact affected the industrial growth of Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador? Has this regional agreement had greater effects tha unilateral liberalization? The author explores two potential channels for industrial growth: scale effects and variety of imported intermediate inputs. She analyzes data from 2 countries (classified at the three-digit level of ISIC) across three countries. The results show that: 10 The variety of intermediate inputs originating from nonregional partners has a significant positive impact on growth in a handful of industries. 2) The effect of regional variety is at best mixed. This lends preliminary support to the argument that unilateral liberalization will have a positive impact on output growth through the channel of imported intermediate inputs. There is significant homogeneity in industry-level returns to scale. Moreover, in the three Andean countries studied, cross-country scale effects were small and negative. Therefore, the three countries should not expect large or across-the-board gains through scale effects from their regional arrangement.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Public Health Promotion,Water and Industry,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Water and Industry

The impact of export tax incentives on export performance : evidence from the automotive sector in South Africa

The original goal of the Motor Industry Development Program was to help the automotive industry in South Africa adjust to trade liberalization and become internationally competitive. In simple terms, it consists of an import/export complementation arrangement, whereby the local value-added of components or built-up vehicles exported earns credits that can be used to rebate import duties on components and vehicles. This study provides a first attempt at a quantitative analysis of the Motor Industry Development Program using the difference-in-difference methodology, in order to assess to what extent the program was effective in improving South Africa's automotive export performance during 1996-2006. The authors take a two-tier approach. First, they perform a comparative study using different manufacturing sectors within South Africa; second, they apply this methodology to analyze South Africa and a number of comparator countries that are automotive producers and exporters. The analysis finds that the impact of the program on automotive exports in South Africa is positive and significant. In particular, (i) the largest response to the program in terms of improved manufacturing exports occurs with a delay after the adoption of the law, suggesting that exports need time to fully react to the incentives; and (ii) in turn, the effectiveness of the tax incentives fades in time, reaffirming the common belief that tax incentives may affect some business decisions particularly in the short run, but they are not a primary consideration for investors in the long run.Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Free Trade,Debt Markets,Tax Law

Testing Endogenous Growth in South Korea and Taiwan

We evaluate the endogenous growth hypothesis using sectoral data for South Korea and Taiwan. Our empirical work relies on a direct measure of the variety of products from each sector which can serve as intermediate inputs or as final goods. We test whether changes in the variety of these inputs, for Taiwan relative to Korea, are correlated with the growth in total factor productivity (TFP) in each sector, again measured in Taiwan relative to Korea. We find that changes in relative product variety (entered as either a lag or a lead) have a positive and significant effect on TFP in eight of the sixteen sectors. Seven out of these eight sectors are what we classify as secondary industries, in that they rely on differentiated manufactured inputs, and therefore seem to fit the idea of endogenous growth. Among the primary industries that rely more heavily on natural resources, we find more mixed evidence.