Is It 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System

This paper examines the durability of what we have elsewhere called the Revived Bretton Woods system. We show that the recent behavior of long-term interest rates is consistent with market expectations that the system will last for a considerable period. We also show that emerging economies with chronic current account surpluses have not experienced the financial crises that many have predicted will trigger the system’s breakdown. Unusually long episodes of current account surpluses and reserve accumulations have been followed by real depreciation and capital gains on reserves, with little or no disruption of economic activity. We argue that, under the original Bretton Woods system, the definition of the balance of payments considered relevant was based on the assumption that collateral, not trust, supports international capital flows. We view the current system as likewise supported by collateral, in the form of goods already produced and delivered to the United States.macroeconomics, 1958, 1968, Longevity, Revived Bretton Woods System

An HDTV encoder for PALplus transmissions, supplemented with a digital residual signal

This paper discusses the design of a video encoder which will enable PALplus compatible HDTV transmission, by embedding a digital residual component within the standard analogue PALplus television signal. The design strategy includes a 2-D diagonal prefilter, together with a QMF band-splitting filter pair, from which the residual is initially derived. The performance of these filters is reviewed, especially in respect of the errors introduced by aliasing and crosstalk distortion. A number of different digital modulation techniques are then examined for the transmission of the residual signal and a qualitative appraisal of their effectiveness presente

Preparing for Tomorrow by Looking at Yesterday

Why do we learn? Why do we study history? Why do we research the work of others? The answer is that there is value today in what was already learned and experienced, successes and failures. Mr. Dooley, a 25-year security professional and 20-year hospitality executive, will share his experiences and how our history in security will help us in thinking about our future

The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries

In this paper we explore some implications of the revived' Bretton Woods system for exchange market intervention and reserve management in periphery countries. Financial policies in these countries are seen as a component of a more general portfolio management policy in which the formation of an efficient domestic capital stock is a key objective. Because intervention in financial markets is an important part of their development strategy, intervention in exchange and financial markets has, and we argue will continue to be, large and persistent enough to generate predictable deviations of exchange rates and relative yields in industrial country financial markets from normal cyclical patterns. We argue that management of the currency composition of international reserves by emerging market governments and central banks is unlikely to alter these conclusions.

Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment

In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge slowly toward normal levels. During this adjustment interval, the US absorbs a disproportionate share of world savings. After a substantial initial appreciation of floating currencies relative to the dollar, the dollar and other floating currencies remain constant relative to each other. An improvement in the investment climate in Europe during the adjustment period would generate an immediate depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. In real terms, the dollar and the floating currencies will eventually have to depreciate relative to the managed currencies. But most of the adjustment in the US trade account will come as US absorption responds to increases in real interest rates.

Enhanced tidal stripping of satellites in the galactic halo from dark matter self-interactions

We investigate the effects of self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) on the tidal stripping and evaporation of satellite galaxies in a Milky Way-like host. We use a suite of five zoom-in, dark-matter-only simulations, two with velocity-independent SIDM cross sections, two with velocity-dependent SIDM cross sections, and one cold dark matter simulation for comparison. After carefully assigning stellar mass to satellites at infall, we find that stars are stripped at a higher rate in SIDM than in CDM. In contrast, the total bound dark matter mass loss rate is minimally affected, with subhalo evaporation having negligible effects on satellites for viable SIDM models. Centrally located stars in SIDM haloes disperse out to larger radii as cores grow. Consequently, the half-light radius of satellites increases, stars become more vulnerable to tidal stripping, and the stellar mass function is suppressed. We find that the ratio of core radius to tidal radius accurately predicts the relative strength of enhanced SIDM stellar stripping. Velocity-independent SIDM models show a modest increase in the stellar stripping effect with satellite mass, whereas velocity-dependent SIDM models show a large increase in this effect towards lower masses, making observations of ultra-faint dwarfs prime targets for distinguishing between and constraining SIDM models. Due to small cores in the largest satellites of velocity-dependent SIDM, no identifiable imprint is left on the all-sky properties of the stellar halo. While our results focus on SIDM, the main physical mechanism of enhanced tidal stripping of stars apply similarly to satellites with cores formed via other means.Comment: 19 pages, 18 figures, Accepted by MNRA