Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: A multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence and prevalence estimation. MPES is the statistical methodology adopted by the Health Protection Agency in the UK for its annual national assessment of the HIV epidemic, and is acknowledged by the World Health Organization and UNAIDS as a valuable technique for the estimation of adult HIV prevalence from surveillance data. This paper describes the results of utilizing a Bayesian MPES approach to model HIV prevalence in the Netherlands at the end of 2007, using an array of field data from different study designs on various population risk subgroups and with a varying degree of regional coverage. Auxiliary data and expert opinion were additionally incorporated to resolve issues arising from biased, insufficient or inconsistent evidence. This case study offers a demonstration of the ability of MPES to naturally integrate and critically reconcile disparate and heterogeneous sources of evidence, while producing reliable estimates of HIV prevalence used to support public health decision-making.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS488 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for injecting drug users in the WHO European Region 2002-2004

Providing equitable access to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) to injecting drug users (IDUs) is both feasible and desirable. Given the evidence that IDUs can adhere to HAART as well as non-IDUs and the imperative to provide universal and equitable access to HlV/AlDS treatment for all who need it, here we examine whether IDUs in the 52 countries in the WHO European Region have equitable access to HAART and whether that access has changed over time between 2002 and 2004. We consider regional and Country differences in IDU HAART access; examine preliminary data regarding the injecting status of those initiating HAART and the use of opioid substitution therapy among HAART patients, and discuss how HAART might be better delivered to injecting drug users. Our data adds to the evidence that IDUs in Europe have poor and inequitable access to HAART, with only a relatively small improvement in access between 2002 and 2004. Regional and country comparisons reveal that inequities in IDU access to HAART are worst in eastern European countries. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the WHO European Region 2003-2005

Aims: To assess changes in access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) between the end of 2002 and the end of 2005, and to review the capacity for further HAART scale-up in the then 52 Member States of the WHO European Region. Methods: Analysis of data from four surveys evaluating access to HAART, supplemented by regional estimates of the number of people receiving HAART. Changes in access to HAART are evaluated in terms of changes in the number of people receiving HAART over time and changes in country-level HAART coverage. Results: During 2003-2005, the total number of individuals receiving HAART increased by an estimated 101,000, from 242,000 to 343,000 (a 42% increase); 85,000 were in the west region (a 36% increase) and 16,000 in the centre and east regions (a 229% increase). The number of countries providing "high" coverage with HAART (>75% of those in need receiving it) increased from 29 to 38, and the number of countries providing no HAART declined from eight to four. Conclusions: Despite high and increasing coverage in many European countries, access to HAART remained inequitable in terms of geographical location. By the end of 2005, all countries in the west provided "high" HAART coverage as compared with half of countries in the centre and east. Six east countries still provided poor or no HAART coverage. Countries must address how to further equitably increase the number of people receiving HAART