Newman and conversion

Ker, Ian T. Newman and conversion. Edinburgh: T & T Clark; Notre Dame, Ind: Univ of Notre Dame Pr, 1997

The church for others: Protestant theology in communist East Germany

Reviewed Book: Baum, Gregory. The church for others: Protestant theology in communist East Germany. Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 1996

From Planning to Implementation? The Role of Climate Change Adaptation Plans to Tackle Heat Stress: A Case Study of Berlin, Germany

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.Global climate change increases the necessity for mid-latitude cities to tackle urban heat. Climate change adaptation plans are common policy mechanisms to approach the issue. This paper studies the city climate development plan (StEP Klima) of Berlin, Germany, by using Constellation Analysis. We analyzed to what extent StEP Klima might trigger planning and governance processes for the implementation of heat stress measures. Berlin’s plan brought attention to the local risks of urban heat and possible strategies. To translate its aims into decision makers’ everyday governance and planning practice, institutionalized guidance and an activation of policy instruments is needed.DFG, 197674476, FOR 1736: Stadtklima und Hitzestress in Städten der Mittelbreiten in Anbetracht des Klimawandels (UCaHS

Canada Country Study

human development, climate change

Cumulus convection and the terrestrial water-vapor distribution

Cumulus convection plays a significant role in determining the structure of the terrestrial water vapor field. Cumulus convection acts directly on the moisture field by condensing and precipitating water vapor and by redistributing water vapor through cumulus induced eddy circulations. The mechanisms by which cumulus convection influences the terrestrial water vapor distribution is outlined. Calculations using a theory due to Kuo is used to illustrate the mechanisms by which cumulus convection works. Understanding of these processes greatly aids the ability of researchers to interpret the seasonal and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor by providing information on the nature of sources and sinks and the global circulation

Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series

© 2015 American Physical Society.Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal preselection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used suboptimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Niño Southern Oscillation