A trajectory modeling investigation of the biomass burning-tropical ozone relationship

The hypothesis that tropical total O3 maxima seen by the TOMS satellite derive from African biomass burning has been tested using isentropic trajectory analyses with global meteorological data fields. Two case studies from the 1989 biomass burning season demonstrate that a large fraction of the air arriving at the location of TOMS O3 maxima passed over regions of intense burning. Other trajectories initiated at a series of points over Africa and the Atlantic suggest flight strategies for field studies to be conducted in September 1992

Setting research priorities to improve global newborn health and prevent stillbirths by 2025.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. METHODS: We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assessed and scored by 91 experts. RESULTS: Nine out of top ten identified priorities were in the domain of research on improving delivery of known interventions, with simplified neonatal resuscitation program and clinical algorithms and improved skills of community health workers leading the list. The top 10 priorities in the domain of development were led by ideas on improved Kangaroo Mother Care at community level, how to improve the accuracy of diagnosis by community health workers, and perinatal audits. The 10 leading priorities for discovery research focused on stable surfactant with novel modes of administration for preterm babies, ability to diagnose fetal distress and novel tocolytic agents to delay or stop preterm labour. CONCLUSION: These findings will assist both donors and researchers in supporting and conducting research to close the knowledge gaps for reducing neonatal mortality, morbidity and long term impairment. WHO, SNL and other partners will work to generate interest among key national stakeholders, governments, NGOs, and research institutes in these priorities, while encouraging research funders to support them. We will track research funding, relevant requests for proposals and trial registers to monitor if the priorities identified by this exercise are being addressed

Setting research priorities to improve global newborn health and prevent stillbirths by 2025

Background In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. Methods We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assessed and scored by 91 experts. Results Nine out of top ten identified priorities were in the domain of research on improving delivery of known interventions, with simplified neonatal resuscitation program and clinical algorithms and improved skills of community health workers leading the list. The top 10 priorities in the domain of development were led by ideas on improved Kangaroo Mother Care at community level, how to improve the accuracy of diagnosis by community health workers, and perinatal audits. The 10 leading priorities for discovery research focused on stable surfactant with novel modes of administration for preterm babies, ability to diagnose fetal distress and novel tocolytic agents to delay or stop preterm labour. Conclusion These findings will assist both donors and researchers in supporting and conducting research to close the knowledge gaps for reducing neonatal mortality, morbidity and long term impairment. WHO, SNL and other partners will work to generate interest among key national stakeholders, governments, NGOs, and research institutes in these priorities, while encouraging research funders to support them. We will track research funding, relevant requests for proposals and trial registers to monitor if the priorities identified by this exercise are being addressed

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β=0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β=0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

A Many-analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N = 10, 535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β = 0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β = 0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

Maintained nodal-distance effects in equivalence classes

Twelve subjects were trained to select one of two stimuli from a pair (the B pair) when presented with one of two stimuli from another pair (the A pair), thus establishing two AB relations, A1-B1 and A2-B2. In a similar fashion, additional stimuli were used to establish BC, CD, and DE relations. Trials used to train all relations occurred in each session. Once performances were established, probe trials were introduced that tested for the emergence of untrained relations (e.g., B1-D1 or A1-E1). These emergent relations were categorized according to nodal distance (i.e., the number of stimuli across which transitivity would have to hold in order for the relation to emerge). For example, a test for A2-C2 crosses one node (B2), whereas a test for A1-E1 crosses three nodes (B1, C1, and D1). Only 2 of the subjects formed equivalence classes. The evocation of class-appropriate responding by each emergent-relation probe was an inverse function of nodal distance for all 12 subjects. In addition, performance on the originally trained relations was disrupted by the introduction of probes. The 2 subjects who exhibited equivalence classes were then trained to make different numbers of key presses in the presence of each of the four A and E stimuli. In a response-transfer test, the B, C, and D stimuli evoked the responses trained to the A and E stimuli in the same equivalence class. Likelihood of class-appropriate responses was an inverse function of nodal distance, and this pattern persisted across testing. Reaction times in the transfer test were an inverted U-shaped function of nodal distance. Because training of the baseline relations occurred concurrently and the B, C, and D stimuli were presented an equal number of times before the transfer test, the test performances illustrate effects of nodal distance that were not confounded by order or amount of experience with the stimuli. The results imply that ordered, sequential exposure to individual stimulus relations may facilitate the development of equivalence classes and that the relatedness of stimuli within an equivalence class is a relatively permanent inverse function of nodal distance

Convective transport of biomass burning emissions over Brazil during TRACE A

A series of large mesoscale convective systems that occurred during the Brazilian phase of GTE/TRACE A (Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator-Atlantic) provided an opportunity to observe deep convective transport of trace gases from biomass burning. This paper reports a detailed analysis of flight 6, on September 27, 1992, which sampled cloud- and biomass-burning-perturbed regions north of Brasilia. High-frequency sampling of cloud outflow at 9-12 km from the NASA DC-8 showed enhancement of CO mixing ratios typically a factor of 3 above background (200-300 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) versus 90 ppbv) and significant increases in NOx and hydrocarbons. Clear signals of lightning-generated NO were detected; we estimate that at least 40% of NOx at the 9.5-km level and 32% at 11.3 km originated from lightning. Four types of model studies have been performed to analyze the dynamical and photochemical characteristics of the series of convective events. (1) Regional simulations for the period have been performed with the NCAR/Penn State mesoscale model (MM5), including tracer transport of carbon monoxide, initialized with observations. Middle-upper tropospheric enhancements of a factor of 3 above background are reproduced. (2) A cloud-resolving model (the Goddard cumulus ensemble (GCE) model) has been run for one representative convective cell during the September 26-27 episode. (3) Photochemical calculations (the Goddard tropospheric chemical model), initialized with trace gas observations (e.g., CO, NOx, hydrocarbons, O3) observed in cloud outflow, show appreciable O3 formation postconvection, initially up to 7-8 ppbv O3/d. (4) Forward trajectories from cloud outflow levels (postconvective conditions) put the ozone-producing air masses in eastern Brazil and the tropical Atlantic within 2-4 days and over the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean in 6-8 days. Indeed, 3-4 days after the convective episode (September 30, 1992), upper tropospheric levels in the Natal ozone sounding show an average increase of ∼30 ppbv (3 Dobson units (DU) integrated) compared to the September 28 sounding. Our simulated net O3 production rates in cloud outflow are a factor of 3 or more greater than those in air undisturbed by the storms. Integrated over the 8- to 16-km cloud outflow layer, the postconvection net O3 production (∼5-6 DU over 8 days) accounts for ∼25% of the excess O3 (15-25 DU) over the South Atlantic. Comparison of TRACE A Brazilian ozonesondes and the frequency of deep convection with climatology [Kirchhoff et al., this issue] suggests that the late September 1992 conditions represented an unusually active period for both convection and upper tropospheric ozone formation

Differential impact of cognitive computing augmented by real world evidence on novice and expert oncologists

Abstract Introduction Cognitive computing point‐of‐care decision support tools which ingest patient attributes from electronic health records and display treatment options based on expert training and medical literature, supplemented by real world evidence (RWE), might prove useful to expert and novice oncologists. The concordance of augmented intelligence systems with best medical practices and potential influences on physician behavior remain unknown. Methods Electronic health records from 88 breast cancer patients evaluated at a USA tertiary care center were presented to subspecialist experts and oncologists focusing on other disease states with and without reviewing the IBM Watson for Oncology with Cota RWE platform. Results The cognitive computing “recommended” option was concordant with selection by breast cancer experts in 78.5% and “for consideration” option was selected in 9.4%, yielding agreements in 87.9%. Fifty‐nine percent of non‐concordant responses were generated from 8% of cases. In the Cota observational database 69.3% of matched controls were treated with “recommended,” 11.4% “for consideration”, and 19.3% “not recommended.” Without guidance from Watson for Oncology (WfO)/Cota RWE, novice oncologists chose 75.5% recommended/for consideration treatments which improved to 95.3% with WfO/Cota RWE. The novices were more likely than experts to choose a non‐recommended option (P < .01) without WfO/Cota RWE and changed decisions in 39% cases. Conclusions Watson for Oncology with Cota RWE options were largely concordant with disease expert judged best oncology practices, and was able to improve treatment decisions among breast cancer novices. The observation that nearly a fifth of patients with similar disease characteristics received non‐recommended options in a real world database highlights a need for decision support