A Derivative Based Estimator for Semiparametric Index Models

This paper proposes a semiparametric estimator for single- and multiple index models.It provides an extension of the average derivative estimator to the multiple index model setting.The estimator uses the average of the outer product of derivatives and is shown to be root-N consistent and asymptotically normal. Unlike the average derivative estimator, our estimator still works in the single-index setting when the expected derivative is zero (symmetry).Compared to other estimators for multiple index models, the proposed estimator has the advantage of ease of computation.While many econometric models can be regarded as multiple index models with known number of indices, our estimator in addition provides for a natural framework within which to test for the number of indices required.econometric models;kernel estimator;ranking;semiparametric estimation

Testing predictive performance of binary choice models

Binary choice models occur frequently in economic modeling. A measure of the predictive performance of binary choice models that is often reported is the hit rate of a model. This paper develops a test for the outperformance of a predictor for binary outcomes over a naive prediction method, which predicts the outcome that is most often observed. This is done for a general class of prediction models, including the well known Probit and Logit models. In many cases the test is easy to compute. The test is then applied and compared to a general test of Pesaran and Timmermann (1992) for dependence between predictors and realizations.Marketing;Predictive performance;Binary choice;Testing

Customs-Related Transaction Costs, Firm Size and International Trade Intensity

The costs of paperwork and delays needed to clear international customs are generally perceived as a time-consuming impediment to international trade. However, few studies have empirically examined the determinants and the impact of this type of government-imposed transaction costs. This paper analyses the role of firm size as a determinant of customs-related transaction costs, as well as the effect of firm size on the relationship between these costs and the international trade intensity of firms. We submit that economies of scale should be related to the size of the activities the firm is specialised in, and not directly linked to the size of a firm per se.The results of this study indicate that customs-related transaction costs repress international trade activities of firms, even at low levels of these costs. The paper identifies transaction-related economies of scale, simplified customs procedures and advanced information and communication technology as main determinants of customs-related transaction costs. When these factors are taken into account, firm size has no effect on customs-related transaction costs. Policy implications are considered for firm strategy and public policy.firm size;international business strategy;international trade intensity;trade barriers

Firm Size and Export Intensity

This paper presents a unifying theory, explaining the different relationships between firm size and export intensity that have been found in previous studies. We propose that transaction costs economies and different types of resources induce a moderating effect on the firm size and export intensity relationship. Data on international businesses in the Netherlands are used to test the theoretical framework empirically, and support is found for different industries.International business strategy;export intensity;firms size;transaction costs

How Certain are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis

The growing literature on precautionary saving clearly indicates the need for measurement of income uncertainty. In this paper we empirically analyze subjective income uncertainty in the Netherlands. Data come from the Dutch VSB panel. We measure income uncertainty directly by asking questions on expected household income in the next twelve months. First, we describe our data and compare a measure of income uncertainty with corresponding studies conducted in the US and Italy. Second, we investigate the relationship between the measure of income uncertainty and some household characteristics. Controlling for information on expected changes, we find strong relationships between labor-market characteristics and the subjective income uncertainty as reported by the heads of households.subjective information;income expectations;income uncertainty

Predicting Customer Potential Value: an application in the insurance industry

For effective Customer Relationship Management (CRM), it is essential to have information on the potential value of customers. Based on the interplay between potential value and realized value, managers can devise customer specific strategies. In this article we introduce a model for predicting the potential value of a current customer. Furthermore, we discuss and apply different modeling strategies for predicting this potential value.marketing models;customer potential;customer relationship management;insurance industry

Extending the CAPM model

This paper extends the well known Capital Asset Pricing Model by Sharpe and Lintner to a multi-period context with possibly price dependent preferences. The model is built from individual forward looking agents adopting a portfolio selection scheme similar to the portfolio selection theory devised by Markowitz. We allow agents to use past and present price information to forecast both the expected return and the variance of asset returns, but with possibly different econometric forecasting techniques. Since the effects of price dependent preferences of agents are complicated, we use Microscopic Simulations to investigate the effects on equilibrium asset prices and on returns over an extended time period in a temporary equilibrium context. We also test whether the assumption of rational expectations makes sensemultiperiod CAPM, heterogeneous agents, price dependent preferences, microscopic simulations

The Econometric Analysis of Microscopic Simulation Models

This paper studies how to compare different microscopic simulation (MS) models and how to compare a MS model with real world. The parameters of interest are classified and characterized, various econometric methods are applied for the comparison. We illustrate the methodolgy on testing of the equality of parameters, such as mean, autocorrelation coefficient, for both the case of comparing two different MS models and of comparing a MS model with real worldMS models, econometrics