A proposal for measuring the benefits of policy-oriented social science research:

This paper addresses the problem of how to measure the benefits of policy-oriented social science research. It argues that social science research promotes economic efficiency in three different ways—it fosters efficiency in the public sector both directly and through effects on the general public, and it increases the efficiency of the private sector. The paper also proposes a practical empirical methodology for measuring the benefits of policy-oriented social science research. The proposed methodology includes a three-stage analysis of a cross-section of countries. The relationship between research and policy is estimated first. Then an estimate is made of the relationship between policy and economic growth. Finally, these estimates are used to deduce the relationship between research and economic growth.Social sciences Methodology., Economic development Models., Research projects, Impact assessment,

The Service Sector in Asia: Is It an Engine of Growth?

The underdeveloped service sector in Asia has the potential to become a new engine of economic growth for developing Asia, which has traditionally relied on export-oriented manufacturing to power its growth. The central objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the prospects for the service sector as a future engine of growth. Our analysis of 12 Asian economies indicates that the service sector already contributed substantially to the region’s growth in the past. Furthermore, somewhat surprisingly in light of the difficulty of achieving productivity gains in services, we also find that services labor productivity grew at a healthy pace in much of the region. Overall our analysis provides substantial cause for optimism about the role of the service sector as an engine of growth in Asia. However, some Asian countries where the service sector is currently struggling, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, will find it more challenging to develop the sector

Addictive behavior in cinema demand: evidence from Korea

It is intuitively plausible that the demand for cinema services may be partly driven by addiction or habit. Yet there is almost no empirical literature which tests for whether cinema demand is addictive. We estimate addiction models for cinema demand using Korean time series data from 1963 to 2004. Our estimation results indicate that (i) addictive behavior characterizes the demand for cinema services, (ii) this behavior is rational, and (iii) habit is one of most important determinants of cinema demand. Our results also reveal that cinema attendance is generally insensitive to admission price and unrelated to income.Cinema demand, rational addiction, myopic addiction, two-stages least squares, time-series analysis

Asia's Sovereign Wealth Funds and Reform of the Global Reserve System

This paper explores the potential contribution of Asia’s sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) to the reform of the global foreign exchange reserve system. By diversifying the investment of Asia’s huge reserves into non-dollar denominated assets, Asian SWFs can help to dilute the dominant role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. At the same time, by exposing reserve managers to a more diverse mix of currencies and asset classes, SWFs will better prepare them for the less dollar-centric global reserve system of the future. In addition to SWFs, other innovative policy options for more active reserve management include transferring some surplus reserves into national pension funds or into exchange traded funds which are distributed among local investors. Regardless of the exact form of more profit-oriented reserve management, it will require that countries build up a critical mass of skills and expertise in wealth preservation and management.Foreign exchange reserves, global reserve system, global financial architecture, pension fund, exchange traded fund

Exports Under an Import Substitution Trade Regime: An Alternative View

Along with export promotion (EP), import substitution (IS) is one of the two main trade strategies for developing countries. We show that an IS industry may remain an infant and still be able to export. Therefore, the ability to export is not necessarily evidence of import substitution being effective in the sense of helping a protected domestic industry achieve international competitiveness over time.

ASEAN’s Free Trade Agreements with the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

Expanding trade with East Asia’s “Big Three” economic giants—the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea—offers a new potential source of growth for ASEAN in the post-global-crisis period. In fact, ASEAN has been actively pursuing trade liberalization with the Big Three. The central objective of this paper is to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the different permutations of ASEAN’s free trade agreements (FTAs) with the Big Three (e.g., ASEAN–PRC, ASEAN–Japan, ASEAN–Republic of Korea, and ASEAN+3). Our qualitative analysis is based on the theory of economic integration, and our quantitative analysis is based on a CGE model. The two types of analyses both suggest that an ASEAN+3 FTA would deliver the largest benefits for the region.ASEAN; People’s Republic of China (PRC); Japan; Republic of Korea; trade; free trade agreement; free trade area; CGE model

The PRC’s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan, and the Republic of Korea: A Comparative Analysis

The role of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in East Asia’s recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlighted the PRC’s growing role as an engine of growth for the region. From the viewpoint of the PRC, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of the PRC’s FTAs with the region’s major economies: PRC–ASEAN, PRC–Japan, PRC–Republic of Korea, and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of the FTAs on the PRC’s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that the PRC would gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from a larger region-wide FTA such as ASEAN+3.ASEAN; PRC; Japan; Republic of Korea; trade; free trade agreement; free trade area; CGE model

Invisible Trade Barriers: Trade Effects of US Antidumping Actions Against the People’s Republic of China

We conduct an empirical analysis on the impact of the United States (US) antidumping actions against the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the bilateral trade and US imports from other trade partners. Using the data set based on the Harmonized System (HS) tariff code, we examine the trade patterns of the PRC and other countries, and find evidence for the trade restriction effect and the trade diversion effect. Further, we examine the intensity and duration of both restriction and diversion effects. The antidumping measures have effectively raised the prices of imports from the PRC and reduced US imports from the PRC only in the short term. Nevertheless, due to the coexistence of trade diversion effects, the overall remedy effect of antidumping actions on domestic industries is considerably limited. In addition, we investigate other factors that influence the efficiency of antidumping measures, such as the antidumping duty amount, the PRC’s market position in the US, and the US market share in the PRC