PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms

Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases

Radiosonde observations of vertical wave number spectra for gravity waves in the lower atmosphere over Central China

International audienceVertical wave number spectra of inertial gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over six stations at latitudes from 20° N to 40° N were statistically studied by using the data from Radiosonde observation on a twice daily basis at 08:00 and 20:00 LT. Statistically, the spectral characteristics seem to be independent of the local observation time, and show considerable conformity between the spectral of zonal and meridional kinetic energy densities. Compared with the spectra of the kinetic energy density, the spectra of the potential energy density are steeper. in addition the characteristic wave numbers of the spectra also show considerable consistency among the observations at different stations. As for the spectral slopes, they are systematically smaller (in magnitude) than the canon value of ?3, and exhibit slight height, seasonal and latitudinal variability. In addition to these universal characteristics, the spectral structures also exhibit departures and variations, and most of the departures and variations are related to the strong tropospheric jets. Generally, in the case of strong shear due to the tropospheric jet, there usually occur larger characteristic wave numbers and smaller spectral slopes. These departures seem to be persistent and climatological rather than transitory, indicating the significant impacts of the sheared background winds on the spectral structures of gravity waves

An Approach to Model Earth Conductivity Structures with Lateral Changes for Calculating Induced Currents and Geoelectric Fields during Geomagnetic Disturbances

During geomagnetic disturbances, the telluric currents which are driven by the induced electric fields will flow in conductive Earth. An approach to model the Earth conductivity structures with lateral conductivity changes for calculating geoelectric fields is presented in this paper. Numerical results, which are obtained by the Finite Element Method (FEM) with a planar grid in two-dimensional modelling and a solid grid in three-dimensional modelling, are compared, and the flow of induced telluric currents in different conductivity regions is demonstrated. Then a three-dimensional conductivity structure is modelled and the induced currents in different depths and the geoelectric field at the Earth’s surface are shown. The geovoltages by integrating the geoelectric field along specific paths can be obtained, which are very important regarding calculations of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in ground-based technical networks, such as power systems

Paclitaxel Modulates TGFβ Signaling in Scleroderma Skin Grafts in Immunodeficient Mice

BACKGROUND: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is characterized by excessive fibrosis and obliterative vascular lesions. Abnormal TGFβ activation is implicated in the pathogenesis of SSc. Aberrant TGFβ/Smad signaling can be controlled by stabilization of microtubules with paclitaxel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: SSc and healthy human skin biopsies were incubated in the presence or absence of paclitaxel followed by transplantation into severe combined immunodeficient mice. TGFβ signaling, fibrosis, and neovessel formation were evaluated by quantitative RT-PCR and immunohistochemical staining. Paclitaxel markedly suppressed Smad2 and Smad3 phosphorylation and collagen deposition in SSc grafts. As a result, the autonomous maintenance/reconstitution of the SSc phenotype was prevented. Remarkably, SSc grafts showed a 2-fold increase in neovessel formation relative to normal grafts, regardless of paclitaxel treatment. Angiogenesis in SSc grafts was associated with a substantial increase in mouse PECAM-1 expression, indicating the mouse origin of the neovascular cells. CONCLUSION: Low-dose paclitaxel can significantly suppress TGFβ/Smad activity and lessen fibrosis in SCID mice. Transplantation of SSc skin into SCID mice elicits a strong angiogenesis—an effect not affected by paclitaxel. Although prolonged chemotherapy with paclitaxel at higher doses is associated with pro-fibrotic and anti-angiogenic changes, the findings described here indicate that low-dose paclitaxel may have therapeutic benefits for SSc via modulating TGFβ signaling

Association of Carotid Plaque Morphology and Glycemic and Lipid Parameters in the Northern Manhattan Study

Low Gray-Scale Median (GSM) index is an ultrasonographic parameter of soft, lipid rich plaque morphology that has been associated with stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We sought to explore the contribution of the modifiable and not-modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (RFs) to vulnerable plaque morphology measured by the low GSM index. A total of 1,030 stroke-free community dwelling individuals with carotid plaques present (mean age, 71.8 ± 9.1; 58% women; 56% Hispanic, 20% Non-Hispanic Black, 22% Non-Hispanic White) were assessed for minimum GSM (min GSM) using high-resolution B-mode carotid ultrasound. Multiple linear regression models were used to evaluate the association between RFs and minGSM after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Within an individual, median plaque number was 2 (IQR: 1–3) and mean plaque number 2.3 (SD: 1.4). Mean minGSM was 78.4 ± 28.7 (IQR: 56–96), 76.3 ± 28.8 in men and 80 ± 28.5 in women; 78.7 ± 29.3 in Hispanics participants, 78.5 ± 27.2 in Non-Hispanic Black participants, and 78.2 ± 29 in Non-Hispanic white participants. In multivariable adjusted model, male sex (β = −5.78, p = 0.007), obesity BMI (β = −6.92, p = 0.01), and greater levels of fasting glucose (β = −8.02, p = 0.02) and LDL dyslipidemia (β = −6.64, p = 0.005) were positively associated with lower minGSM, while presence of glucose lowering medication resulted in a significant inverse association (β = 7.68, p = 0.04). Interaction (with p for interaction <0.1) and stratification analyses showed that effect of age on minGSM was stronger in men (β = −0.44, p = 0.03) than in women (β = −0.20, p = 0.18), and in individuals not taking glucose lowering medication (β = −0.33, p = 0.009). Our study has demonstrated an important contribution of glycemic and lipid metabolism to vulnerable, low density or echolucent plaque morphology, especially among men and suggested that use of glucose lowering medication was associated with more fibrose-stable plaque phenotype (greater GSM). Further research is needed to evaluate effects of medical therapies in individuals with vulnerable, low density, non-stenotic carotid plaques and how these effects translate to prevention of cerebrovascular disease

Quality and Operations Management in Food Supply Chains: A Literature Review

We present a literature review on quality and operations management problems in food supply chains. In food industry, the quality of the food products declines over time and should be addressed in the supply chain operations management. Managing food supply chains with operations management methods not only generates economic benefit, but also contributes to environmental and social benefits. The literature on this topic has been burgeoning in the past few years. Since 2005, more than 100 articles have been published on this topic in major operations research and management science journals. In this literature review, we concentrate on the quantitative models in this research field and classify the related articles into four categories, that is, storage problems, distribution problems, marketing problems, and food traceability and safety problems. We hope that this review serves as a reference for interested researchers and a starting point for those who wish to explore it further