Local or state? Evidence on bank market size using branch prices

With the elimination of state laws against branching, banks can now compete across states. They are no longer limited to competing in local markets, defined by the Federal Reserve as metropolitan statistical areas or small groups of rural counties. Accordingly, a "local or state?" debate over market size is taking place among researchers, with some arguing that banking markets are statewide and others contending that they remain local. This article contributes to the debate with a novel, arguably better, indicator of market size: bank branch prices, as opposed to bank deposit rates. The pattern of branch price data suggests that banking markets are not necessarily local. The authors find that branch prices in ten northeast states over the 1990s are more closely correlated with bank concentration at the state level than at the local level, consistent with the "state-market" argument. However, they caution that the relationship is not completely robust; it depends partly on how the data are parsed. Further study using a larger set of branch price data will help settle the debate more definitively.Banking market ; Branch banks ; Bank competition

Is bank lending special?

Bank loans ; Financial institutions ; Commercial loans

The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey

VAR analysis on a measure of bank lending standards collected by the Federal Reserve reveals that shocks to lending standards are significantly correlated with innovations in commercial loans of banks and in real output. Credit standards strongly dominate loan rates in explaining variation in business loans and output. Standards remain significant when we include various proxies for loan demand, suggesting that part of the standards fluctuations can be identified with changes in loan supply. Standards are also significant in structural equations of some categories of inventory investment, a GDP component closely associated with bank lending. The estimated impact of a moderate tightening of standards on inventory investment is of the same order of magnitude as the decline in inventory investment over the typical recession.Credit crunch; Credit rationing; Credit standards; Loan officer survey

Bad debt rising

Charge-offs on credit card loans are rising sharply. While many analysts blame this trend on an expanding supply of credit cards, a closer look reveals the importance of two demand factors--wealth and the share of the population at peak borrowing age--in explaining the increase in bad debt.Credit ; Debt ; Supply and demand

Meet the new borrowers

Credit card lenders have been writing off loans at sharply higher rates since 1995, suggesting that riskier borrowers are acquiring credit cards. What makes the new borrowers riskier--even more than their personal characteristics and attitudes toward debt--is the fact that they carry higher debt burdens and work in occupations where income may be more cyclical.Credit cards ; Risk ; Bank loans

Conference overview and summary of papers

Conference was entitled "Beyond Pillar 3 in International Banking Regulation: Disclosure and Market Discipline of Financial Firms," Proceedings of a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia Business School, October 2-3, 2003.Bank supervision ; Bank investments ; Financial institutions - Law and legislation

Foreign Bank Entry and Business Volatility: Evidence from U.S. States and Other Countries

The first-order effects of relaxed bank entry restrictions have been favorable, both within the U.S. and across countries. Internationally, the benefits of foreign entry seem to depend on the level of development, but at least for developing nations entrants are more efficient than incumbent banks and the stiffer competition seems to improve overall bank efficiency. In contrast to these first-order effects, the stability implications of increased entry are less obvious. This paper investigates whether greater integration resulting from foreign bank entry has been associated with more or less business cycle volatility. We approach the topic with mix of theory and evidence from both the U.S. states and countries. While theoretical effects are mixed, the empirical effect of relaxation of restrictions of cross-state banking has been to stabilize state-level fluctuations in the U.S. Applying a related set of tests to a panel of about 100 countries, however, we find no evidence that expansion of foreign banking has reduced business fluctuations. If anything, the evidence points tentatively in the other direction.

Credit effects in the monetary mechanism

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionCredit ; Monetary policy

Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output

Over most of the last thirty-three years, the Federal Reserve has polled a small number of bank loan officers about their moves to tighten or ease commercial credit standards. Although the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey uses a small sample and gathers only qualitative information, it proves to be a useful tool in predicting changes in commercial lending and output. The authors find a strong correlation between tighter credit standards and slower loan growth and output, even after controlling for credit demand and other predictors of lending and output. The analysis also shows that the loan officer reports can help predict narrower measures of business activity, including inventory investment and industrial production.Bank loans ; Business cycles ; Forecasting