Reducing Attrition Bias using Targeted Refreshment Sampling and Matching

This paper examines the possibility of reducing attrition bias in panel data using targeted refreshment sampling and matched imputation. The targeted refreshment sampling approach consists of collecting new data from the original sampling population from individuals who would never usually respond to surveys. Using propensity score matching and imputation in conjunction with refreshment sampling it is suggested that the dropouts from a panel can effectively be 'replaced'. The procedure allows us to identify underlying joint distributions in the data. The method is illustrated using data from the Youth Cohort Surveys in the UK which suffer 45% attrition in the second wave. A comparison of the results of this method with other techniques for attrition modeling suggest that the technique could be an effective way to overcome a substantial part of the bias associated with attrition.attrition, refreshment sampling

Recruiting High Quality Teachers

Bildungspolitik, Qualifikation, Lehrkräfte, Hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte, Pädagogik, Erwerbsstatus, Gehalt, Educational policy, Occupational qualification, Teaching personnel, Highly skilled labour, Education sciences, Occupational status, Salary

Using wage council data to identify the effect of recessions on the impact of the minimum wage

Up until now the National Minimum Wage (NMW) introduced in April 1999 appears to have been a policy success. So far there has been little evidence of a negative effect on employment. However, to date, the NMW has largely been operating in a period of prolonged economic expansion. Since the spring of 2008 the UK economy has experienced a downturn of significant proportions. In this report we examine the impact of the UK minimum wages in force during the 1980s and 1990s recessions when a system of Wages Councils was in operation. Wages Councils set (different) minimum rates of pay in a range of low-paying industries. However there were still a large number of low-wage industries not covered by the legislation. This project analyses the impact of the two previous recessions on employment and wages in Wages Council sectors relative to other similar but uncovered low-wage industries using data from the New Earnings Survey and Workforce in Employment Survey form the panel. The findings are informative about the likely consequences of the NMW in the current recession. We can find no significant detrimental impact on employment from the Wages Councils. We do find some evidence of negative hours effects from the Wages Councils, although we cannot find any further detrimental impacts through the recessions of the 1980s or 1990s. In addition, our individual level results are consistent with higher turnover in the Wages Councils sectors. We do find some evidence of a slowdown in turnover through the recessions, and some evidence that hiring increased in the 1990s recession in these low wage sectors. None of the results here indicate that the National Minimum Wage will have any more detrimental impacts on employment through the recent Credit Crunch recession. However, one must be mindful of the fact that recessions can be very different. Our individual results suggest this. So the recent recession that the UK has experienced may play out differently across different sectors than have recessions of the past

The Riddle of the Sands? Incentives and Labour Contracts on Archaeological digs in Northern Syria in the 1930s

This paper analyses data on the daily work decisions of archaeological workers on a Syrian archaeological dig in 1938. The remuneration contract that these workers faced involved a fixed component and a stochastic component termed “bakshish” which were daily payments for small finds that the worker made on the dig. The value of these finds we argue represent transitory movements in the worker’s wage which can be used to examine intertemporal labour supply behaviour

The Impact of the Public Sector Pay Review Bodies in the UK

This paper examines the impact of the Pay Review Bodies (PRBs) on the public sector pay of their remit groups. We compare the real weekly earnings of groups of workers in occupations covered by PRBs, in the remainder of the public sector and in the private sector using LFS data from 1993 to 2006 for 10 occupational sub-groups. We describe how the pattern of relative occupational pay varies over time and by gender and can be interpreted as compensating pay differentials. In several public sector occupations, men incur a much larger earnings penalty than women. Our difference- in-difference impact estimation method relies on comparison of the difference between any specific PRB group and other (non-PRB) public sector workers over time. For the most part we find that the PRBs have had little or no practical impact on earnings over and above that of comparable public sector workers not covered by the PRBs.Public Sector Pay Review Bodies

The effect of local labour market conditions on the decision to migrate among UK graduates

Using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) "first destinations " data we model two key aspects of individual?s higher education experience. First, we explore where UK university entrants choose to study and what factors influence the decision to migrate to another region to study. We are particularly interested in looking at how socio-economic background influences institutional choice for North East residents. The HESA data includes postcode information for the individual?s residence immediately prior to entering HE. Having full postcodes enables us to "super-profile" the individuals, which allows us to make inferences about their backgrounds, including the conditions in their local labour market. Second, we explore the subsequent post-graduation transition into work, looking at how regional mobility influences occupational outcomes. In particular, we are interested in determining the extent to which the "best" graduates are geographically mobile. The inclusion of full postcode data in the HESA data also allows us to look at the exogonous effects of local unemployment rates in the location where the individual studied and also in the location where the individual resides, to determine how this effects the migration decision. Econometric modelling in this context uses the "Mover-Stayer" model with our exogonous data aiding formal identification via exclusion restrictions. After modelling the migration decision, we estimate the economic returns to migration. Using longitundinal data on a sample of approximately 15,000 UK graduates from 1985 and 1990, we estimate earnings equations with the inclusion of a range of mobility questions included as regressors. In particular, we are interested in determining the importance of an early move on one?s future earnings. These are particularly important questions for the UK, where graduate opportunities differ considerably from region to region. One of the principal benefits of increased participation in higher education is a more skilled labour market. However, the distribution of these skills is not equal across regions and one of the principal reasons for this is a lack of opportunity to put these skills to use. Furthermore, our results will have increasing relevance to the higher education system as a whole since it is anticipated that changes in the fees system will cause a large increase in the propensity to go to one?s local university.

Executive Pay in the Public Sector: The Case of CEOs in UK Universities

We analyse top management public sector pay using a panel data of university Vice Chancellors (VC) in UK. We assess how institutional performance, hierarchical effects, and personal characteristics determine VC pay. VC personal data covers personal details, qualifications and career history, which let us distinguish between internal promotions and hires from outside academia. We use the results of three Research Assessment Exercises as academic performance indicators, and university financial positions as measures of sound executive management. We analysed the importance of university salary structure and how they affect VC pay. Fixed and random institutional effects are also identified and analysed.pay, public sector, CEO, universities

The Long-Run Effects of Unemployment Monitoring and Work-Search Programs: Some Experimental Evidence from the U.K.

In this paper we examine the long-term effects of the Restart unemployment program introduced in the U.K. in 1987. The program was aimed at the long-term unemployed and involved a combination of tighter monitoring of benefit eligibility rules and increased job search assistance. We compare employment behaviour over a five-year period for members of a treatment group who participated in the scheme with those of a randomly chosen control group for whom participation was delayed. We find that those who participated in Restart had significantly shorter unemployment durations than those excluded from the program. However, our results also show that the long-run effect of postponing participation in the scheme differs by gender. While there is little evidence of a long-term benefit for women in our sample, the unemployment rate among males in the treatment group was six percentage points lower than that for males in the control group five years after the initial experiment.unemployment

From Grants to Loans and Fees: The Demand for Post-Compulsory Education in England and Wales from 1955 to 2008

The UK has progressively moved from a Higher Education (HE) system which is funded at the tax payers' expense to one which is funded by individual participants (and their parents) by scrapping student grants, introducing student loans and charging tuition fees. The purpose of this paper is to identify the impact of these changes on the demand for HE using time-series data for England and Wales over the period 1955 to 2008. We use a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions model of three indicators of demand for post-compulsory education allowing for structural breaks. Tests show that most of the breaks occurred in line with several important policy changes. We find that less generous student financial support arrangements have had a significant negative impact on university enrolment. We simulate the impact of raising tuition fees to £9,000 pa and find that this will reduce demand for HE from boys by 7.51 percentage points and from girls by 4.92 percentage points.post compulsory education, student finance, structural change