Simulation-Based Inference for Global Health Decisions

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning, specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria (https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators

New limit for the half-life of double beta decay of 94^{94}Zr to the first excited state of 94^{94}Mo

Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay is a phenomenon of fundamental interest in particle physics. The decay rates of double beta decay transitions to the excited states can provide input for Nuclear Transition Matrix Element calculations for the relevant two neutrino double beta decay process. It can be useful as supplementary information for the calculation of Nuclear Transition Matrix Element for the neutrinoless double beta decay process. In the present work, double beta decay of $^{94}$Zr to the $2^{+}_{1}$ excited state of $^{94}$Mo at 871.1 keV is studied using a low background $\sim$ 230 cm$^3$ HPGe detector. No evidence of this decay was found with a 232 g.y exposure of natural Zirconium. The lower half-life limit obtained for the double beta decay of $\rm^{94}Zr$ to the $2^{+}_{1}$ excited state of $\rm^{94}Mo$ is $T_{1/2} (0\nu + 2\nu)> 3.4 \times 10^{19}$ y at 90% C.L., an improvement by a factor of $\sim$ 4 over the existing experimental limit at 90\% C.L. The sensitivity is estimated to be $T_{1/2} (0\nu + 2\nu) > 2.0\times10^{19}$ y at 90% C.L. using the Feldman-Cousins method.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, Accepted in Eur. Phys. J.