Living on the Edge: Assessing the Extinction Risk of Critically Endangered Bonelli’s Eagle in Italy

Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity), and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population’s fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli’s eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate l.1). In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. Conclusions/Significance: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species in Italy, measures are urgently needed to decrease both adult mortality due to poaching and juvenile mortality due to nest plundering, the top ranking mortality causes.PLL is supported by a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral grant of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (reference JCI-2011–09588)

Long-term effects after conversion of biarticular to monoarticular muscles compared with musculotendinous lengthening in children with spastic diplegia

Adverse effects such as increased anterior pelvic tilt (APT) are reported after muscle-tendon lengthening (MTL) for the correction of flexed knee gait in cerebral palsy. The conversion of biarticular muscles (CBM) to monoarticular muscles represents an alternative treatment, but only few short-term results have been published, without comparison with MTL. The long-term outcome of 21 diplegic patients treated with CBM in a prospective study was compared with the results in MTL patients in a matched-pair analysis. Standardized clinical examination and three-dimensional gait analysis were done before surgery, 1 year thereafter, and at long-term follow-up a mean of 9.2 years postoperatively. Mean APT increased one year after surgery in both groups. This increase was higher in MTL patients and statistically significant only for this group. Knee flexion at initial contact and minimum knee flexion in stance were significantly decreased in both groups, while in swing the CBM group tended to show more of a decrease in knee flexion but at the cost of reduced peak flexion. Both groups showed deterioration of kinematic knee parameters through to long-term follow-up; the favourable effects of CBM disappeared, and the two groups displayed comparable average pelvic and knee kinematics. Considering individual patterns the prevalence of increased APT was lower in the CBM group 1 year after surgery, indicating that sparing the semitendinosus may have a positive effect on pelvic stability. However, after 9 years 30% of the patients in both groups showed increased APT indicative of persistent hamstring insufficiency. These results demonstrate that CBM, a significantly more extensive procedure, has no long-term advantage over MTL