ERKEN UYARI SISTEMLERÝ YOLUYLA TURKIYE’DEKI EKONOMIK KRIZLERIN ANALIZI

It is observed that the interest rate-exchange rate nexus in the Turkish economy appeared in the process of financial liberalization has formed a fragile structure and that this situation has triggered the economic crises along with the rising of the country’s risk premium. In this context, the attentions have been drawn up on the crises which were led by the artificial welfare increases created by the gap between interest rate and exchange rate, and up on the unsustainability of artificially appreciated national currency with high interest rates in the economy.Economic crises, Currency-balance of payment crises, Financial-banking crises, Early warning systems, exchange rate pressure index, Turkish economy, Logit model, Probit model