Breeding transients in capture-recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

Standard procedures for capture&ndash;mark&ndash;recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N&thinsp;=&thinsp;115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988&ndash;2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture&ndash;recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species. </div

Termites Create Spatial Structure And Govern Ecosystem Function By Affecting N-2 Fixation In An East African Savanna

The mechanisms by which even the clearest of keystone or dominant species exert community-wide effects are only partially understood in most ecosystems. This is especially true when a species or guild influences community-wide interactions via changes in the abiotic landscape. Using stable isotope analyses, we show that subterranean termites in an East African savanna strongly influence a key ecosystem process: atmospheric nitrogen fixation by a monodominant tree species and its bacterial symbionts. Specifically, we applied the N-15 natural abundance method in combination with other biogeochemical analyses to assess levels of nitrogen fixation by Acacia drepanolobium and its effects on co-occurring grasses and forbs in areas near and far from mounds and where ungulates were or were not excluded. We find that termites exert far stronger effects than do herbivores on nitrogen fixation. The percentage of nitrogen derived from fixation in Acacia drepanolobium trees is higher (55-80%) away from mounds vs. near mounds (40-50%). Mound soils have higher levels of plant available nitrogen, and Acacia drepanolobium may preferentially utilize soil-based nitrogen sources in lieu of fixed nitrogen when these sources are readily available near termite mounds. At the scale of the landscape, our models predict that termite/soil derived nitrogen sources influence \u3e50% of the Acacia drepanolobium trees in our system. Further, the spatial extent of these effects combine with the spacing of termite mounds to create highly regular patterning in nitrogen fixation rates, resulting in marked habitat heterogeneity in an otherwise uniform landscape. In summary, we show that termite-associated effects on nitrogen processes are not only stronger than those of more apparent large herbivores in the same system, but also occur in a highly regular spatial pattern, potentially adding to their importance as drivers of community and ecosystem structure

Climatic stress mediates the impacts of herbivory on plant population structure and components of individual fitness

Summary 1. Past studies have shown that the strength of top-down herbivore control on plant physiological performance, abundance and distribution patterns can shift with abiotic stress, but it is still unclear whether herbivores generally exert stronger effects on plants in stressful or in nonstressful environments. 2. One hypothesis suggests that herbivores&apos; effects on plant biomass and fitness should be strongest in stressful areas, because stressed plants are less able to compensate for herbivore damage. Alternatively, herbivores may reduce plant biomass and fitness more substantially in nonstressful areas, either because plant growth rates in the absence of herbivory are higher and/or because herbivores are more abundant and diverse in nonstressful areas. 3. We test these predictions of where herbivores should exert stronger effects by measuring individual performance, population size structure and densities of a common subshrub, Hibiscus meyeri, in a large-scale herbivore exclosure experiment arrayed across an aridity gradient in East Africa. 4. We find support for both predictions, with herbivores exerting stronger effects on individual-level performance in arid (stressful) areas, but exerting stronger effects on population size structure and abundance in mesic (nonstressful) areas. We suggest that this discrepancy arises from higher potential growth rates in mesic areas, where alleviation of herbivory leads to substantially more growth and thus large changes in population size structure. Differences in herbivore abundance do not appear to contribute to our results. 5. Synthesis. Our work suggests that understanding the multiple facets of plant response to herbivores (e.g. both individual performance and abundance) may be necessary to predict how plant species&apos; abundance and distribution patterns will shift in response to changing climate and herbivore numbers

Mechanisms of plant -plant interactions: concealment from herbivores is more important than abiotic-stress mediation in an African savannah

Recent work on facilitative plant-plant interactions has emphasized the importance of neighbours&apos; amelioration of abiotic stress, but the facilitative effects of neighbours in reducing plant apparency to herbivores have received less attention. Whereas theory on stress reduction predicts that competition should be more important in less stressful conditions, with facilitation becoming more important in harsh environments, apparency theory suggests that facilitation should be greater in the presence of herbivores, where it is disadvantageous to be conspicuous regardless of abiotic stress level. We tested the relative strength of neighbours&apos; stress reduction versus apparency reduction on survival, growth, reproduction and lifetime fitness of Hibiscus meyeri, a common forb in central Kenya, using neighbour removals conducted inside and outside large-herbivore exclosures replicated in arid and mesic sites. In the absence of herbivores, neighbours competed with H. meyeri in mesic areas and facilitated H. meyeri in arid areas, as predicted by stress-reduction mechanisms. By contrast, neighbours facilitated H. meyeri in the presence of herbivory, regardless of aridity level, consistent with plant apparency. Our results show that the facilitative effects arising from plant apparency are stronger than the effects arising from abiotic stress reduction in this system, suggesting that plant-apparency effects may be particularly important in systems with extant large-herbivore communities

Filling Key Gaps in Population and Community Ecology

We propose research to fill key gaps in the areas of population and community ecology, based on a National Science Foundation workshop identifying funding priorities for the next 5–10 years. Our vision for the near future of ecology focuses on three core areas: predicting the strength and context-dependence of species interactions across multiple scales; identifying the importance of feedbacks from individual interactions to ecosystem dynamics; and linking pattern with process to understand species coexistence. We outline a combination of theory development and explicit, realistic tests of hypotheses needed to advance population and community ecology

A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis

Structured demographic models are among the most common and useful tools in population biology. However, the introduction of integral projection models (IPMs) has caused a profound shift in the way many demographic models are conceptualized. Some researchers have argued that IPMs, by explicitly representing demographic processes as continuous functions of state variables such as size, are more statistically efficient, biologically realistic, and accurate than classic matrix projection models, calling into question the usefulness of the many studies based on matrix models. Here, we evaluate how IPMs and matrix models differ, as well as the extent to which these differences matter for estimation of key model outputs, including population growth rates, sensitivity patterns, and life spans. First, we detail the steps in constructing and using each type of model. Second, we present a review of published demographic models, concentrating on size-based studies, which shows significant overlap in the way IPMs and matrix models are constructed and analyzed. Third, to assess the impact of various modeling decisions on demographic predictions, we ran a series of simulations based on size-based demographic data sets for five biologically diverse species. We found little evidence that discrete vital rate estimation is less accurate than continuous functions across a wide range of sample sizes or size classes (equivalently bin numbers or mesh points). Most model outputs quickly converged with modest class numbers (≥10), regardless of most other modeling decisions. Another surprising result was that the most commonly used method to discretize growth rates for IPM analyses can introduce substantial error into model outputs. Finally, we show that empirical sample sizes generally matter more than modeling approach for the accuracy of demographic outputs. Based on these results, we provide specific recommendations to those constructing and evaluating structured population models. Both our literature review and simulations question the treatment of IPMs as a clearly distinct modeling approach or one that is inherently more accurate than classic matrix models. Importantly, this suggests that matrix models, representing the vast majority of past demographic analyses available for comparative and conservation work, continue to be useful and important sources of demographic information.Support for this work was provided by NSF awards 1146489, 1242558, 1242355, 1353781, 1340024, 1753980, and 1753954, 1144807, 0841423, and 1144083. Support also came from USDA NIFA Postdoctoral Fellowship (award no. 2019-67012-29726/project accession no. 1019364) for R. K. Shriver; the Swiss Polar Institute of Food and Agriculture for N. I. Chardon; the ICREA under the ICREA Academia Programme for C. Linares; and SERDP contract RC-2512 and USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project 1016746 for A .M. Louthan. This is Contribution no. 21-177-J from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station

Evaluating the Potential Effectiveness of Compensatory Mitigation Strategies for Marine Bycatch

Conservationists are continually seeking new strategies to reverse population declines and safeguard against species extinctions. Here we evaluate the potential efficacy of a recently proposed approach to offset a major anthropogenic threat to many marine vertebrates: incidental bycatch in commercial fisheries operations. This new approach, compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch (CMMB), is conceived as a way to replace or reduce mandated restrictions on fishing activities with compensatory activities (e.g., removal of introduced predators from islands) funded by levies placed on fishers. While efforts are underway to bring CMMB into policy discussions, to date there has not been a detailed evaluation of CMMB's potential as a conservation tool, and in particular, a list of necessary and sufficient criteria that CMMB must meet to be an effective conservation strategy. Here we present a list of criteria to assess CMMB that are tied to critical ecological aspects of the species targeted for conservation, the range of possible mitigation activities, and the multi-species impact of fisheries bycatch. We conclude that, overall, CMMB has little potential for benefit and a substantial potential for harm if implemented to solve most fisheries bycatch problems. In particular, CMMB is likely to be effective only when applied to short-lived and highly-fecund species (not the characteristics of most bycatch-impacted species) and to fisheries that take few non-target species, and especially few non-seabird species (not the characteristics of most fisheries). Thus, CMMB appears to have limited application and should only be implemented after rigorous appraisal on a case-specific basis; otherwise it has the potential to accelerate declines of marine species currently threatened by fisheries bycatch

A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis: Reply

We thank Ellner et al. (2022; henceforth E22) for taking an interest in our recent paper on demographic modeling methods (Doak et al., 2021, henceforth referred to as D21). While the tone of E22's comment might imply otherwise, most of their comment emphasizes points with which we agree and made ourselves in D21, and, as we repeatedly acknowledged in D21, are similar to past advice and critiques of demographic modeling by these authors and by others. There are, however, some areas of disagreement or differences in emphasis, and we welcome this opportunity to engage in a constructive dialogue on these points. Overall, however, E22 and D21 offer differing advice on fairly few substantial points about how to build demographic models. This is good news for ecologists and conservation managers who wish to use these tools to model population processes, estimate the vulnerability of target species, and provide effective management guidelines. Below, we outline our thoughts on E22's main points.Peer reviewe

Buying Years to Extinction: Is Compensatory Mitigation for Marine Bycatch a Sufficient Conservation Measure for Long-Lived Seabirds?

Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries