Real-Time Estimation of R0 for COVID-19 Spread

We propose a real-time approximation of R0 in an SIR-type model that applies to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. A very useful direct formula expressing R0 is found. Then, various type of models are considered, namely, finite differences, cubic splines, Piecewise Cubic Hermite interpolation and linear least squares approximation. Preserving the monotonicity of the formula under consideration proves to be of crucial importance. This latter property is preferred over accuracy, since it maintains positive R0. Only the Linear Least Squares technique guarantees this, and is finally proposed here. Tests on real COVID-19 data confirm the usefulness of our approach

Numerical Method for Solving of the Anomalous Diffusion Equation Based on a Local Estimate of the Monte Carlo Method

This paper considers a method of stochastic solution to the anomalous diffusion equation with a fractional derivative with respect to both time and coordinates. To this end, the process of a random walk of a particle is considered, and a master equation describing the distribution of particles is obtained. It has been shown that in the asymptotics of large times, this process is described by the equation of anomalous diffusion, with a fractional derivative in both time and coordinates. The method has been proposed for local estimation of the solution to the anomalous diffusion equation based on the simulation of random walk trajectories of a particle. The advantage of the proposed method is the opportunity to estimate the solution directly at a given point. This excludes the systematic component of the error from the calculation results and allows constructing the solution as a smooth function of the coordinate

Runge–Kutta–Nyström Pairs of Orders 8(6) for Use in Quadruple Precision Computations

The second-order system of non-stiff Initial Value Problems (IVP) is considered and, in particular, the case where the first derivatives are absent. This kind of problem is interesting since since it arises in many significant problems, e.g., in Celestial mechanics. Runge–Kutta–Nyström (RKN) pairs are perhaps the most successful approaches for solving such type of IVPs. To achieve a pair attaining orders eight and six, we have to solve a well-defined set of equations with respect to the coefficients. Here, we provide a simplified form of these equations in a robust algorithm. When creating such pairings for use in double precision arithmetic, numerous conditions are often satisfied. First and foremost, we strive to keep the coefficients’ magnitudes small to prevent accuracy loss. We may, however, allow greater coefficients when working with quadruple precision. Then, we may build pairs of orders eight and six with significantly smaller truncation errors. In this paper, a novel pair is generated that, as predicted, outperforms state-of-the-art pairs of the same orders in a collection of important problems

On a New Family of Runge–Kutta–Nyström Pairs of Orders 6(4)

In this study, Runge–Kutta–Nyström pairs of orders 6(4) using six stages per step are considered. The main contribution of the present work is that we introduce a new family of pairs (i.e., new methodology of solution for order conditions) that possesses seven free parameters instead of four, as used by similar pairs until now. Using these extra coefficients efficiently we may construct methods with better properties. Here, we exploit the free parameters in order to derive a pair with extended imaginary stability interval. This type of method may furnish better results on problems with periodic solutions. Extended numerical tests justify our effort

On a New Family of Runge–Kutta–Nyström Pairs of Orders 6(4)

In this study, Runge–Kutta–Nyström pairs of orders 6(4) using six stages per step are considered. The main contribution of the present work is that we introduce a new family of pairs (i.e., new methodology of solution for order conditions) that possesses seven free parameters instead of four, as used by similar pairs until now. Using these extra coefficients efficiently we may construct methods with better properties. Here, we exploit the free parameters in order to derive a pair with extended imaginary stability interval. This type of method may furnish better results on problems with periodic solutions. Extended numerical tests justify our effort