Probabilistic analysis of corroded pipeline under localized corrosion defects based on the intelligent inspection tool

A methodology is developed in this paper to estimate the time-dependent reliability of a pipeline in Algeria, which is in exploitation from 1981 and with internal and external localized corrosion defects detected in 2009. A probabilistic approach was applied to a pipeline made of API 5L X60 steel for the long-distance transportation of natural gas (55 km), which crossing several geo-graphical reliefs in different country areas. The analysis was carried out by taking into con-sideration the potential stochastic variables altering drastically the reliability of the pipeline, i.e., dimensions of the localized corrosion defects, their locations, and distribution, and the corrosion rate. The correlations between the pipeline spatial corrosion defects distribution and their di-mensions, obtained by using an intelligent inspection tool are used to analyze the actual in-service corrosion attack rate and for enhancement of the accuracy of the reliability assessment. The failure scenario was considered as the moment when the pipeline operating pressure exceeds the failure pressure defined analytically in accordance with different commonly used standards. The assessment of the reliability index of the corroded pipeline subjected to internal pressure and the failure probability was done. The detailed reliability analysis is carried out by using the second order reliability method (SORM) for the basic random variables with different prob-abilistic density within a nonlinear limit state function. The latter is based on the limit analysis of the failure pressure model for different standards and the numerical analysis using the finite element method and ANSYS software

Probabilistic analysis of corroded pipeline under localized corrosion defects based on the intelligent inspection tool

A methodology is developed in this paper to estimate the time-dependent reliability of a pipeline in Algeria, which is in exploitation from 1981 and with internal and external localized corrosion defects detected in 2009. A probabilistic approach was applied to a pipeline made of API 5L X60 steel for the long-distance transportation of natural gas (55 km), which crossing several geo-graphical reliefs in different country areas. The analysis was carried out by taking into con-sideration the potential stochastic variables altering drastically the reliability of the pipeline, i.e., dimensions of the localized corrosion defects, their locations, and distribution, and the corrosion rate. The correlations between the pipeline spatial corrosion defects distribution and their di-mensions, obtained by using an intelligent inspection tool are used to analyze the actual in-service corrosion attack rate and for enhancement of the accuracy of the reliability assessment. The failure scenario was considered as the moment when the pipeline operating pressure exceeds the failure pressure defined analytically in accordance with different commonly used standards. The assessment of the reliability index of the corroded pipeline subjected to internal pressure and the failure probability was done. The detailed reliability analysis is carried out by using the second order reliability method (SORM) for the basic random variables with different prob-abilistic density within a nonlinear limit state function. The latter is based on the limit analysis of the failure pressure model for different standards and the numerical analysis using the finite element method and ANSYS software

A probabilistic approach to estimate the remaining life and reliability of corroded pipelines

Considering corrosion rate during the remaining life assessment of aging pipelines is fundamental to calculate the interval between two consecutive inspections. A total of 798 internal and external corrosion defects have been detected, using the Magnetic Flux Leakage intelligent inspection tool, over 48 km of a pipeline length located in the west region of Algeria. The statistical analysis has shown that there is a strong correlation between the corrosion defect length and the corrosion defect circumferential width, with a significant correlation coefficient equal to 82.87%. A probabilistic methodology is presented for the assessment of the remaining life of a corroded pipeline transporting gas, and a finite element method (FEM) was used to assess the pipeline failure pressure. The numerical FEM modeling results were compared with the commonly used codes-models for calculating limit pressure to establish a more realistic and accurate engineering model. The reliability analysis of an API 5L X60 steel made Algerian natural gas pipeline, in service for thirty years, and exposed to active corrosion attack, is presented. The sensitivity analysis of the basic random variables within the nonlinear limit state function was carried out to bring out the relative contribution of each variable affecting the remaining life of corroded pipelines. The reliability analysis is carried out by using Breitung's formula, based on the second-order reliability method (SORM). The reliability assessment of the corroded pipeline is based on the usage of the notched failure assessment diagram (NFAD), different codes for the calculation of the failure pressure, and the numerical results using the finite element analyses (FEA) software ANSYS