Rating Inflation versus Deflation: On Procyclical Credit Ratings

Credit rating agencies play a crucial role in financial markets. There are two competing views regarding their behavior: some argue that they engage in rating inflation, while others suggest that they deflate ratings. This article offers a rationale that reconciles the two opposite arguments. We find that both rating inflation and rating deflation can occur in equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that credit rating is procyclical: rating inflation is more likely to happen in a boom while rating deflation is more likely to happen in a recession

Rating Inflation versus Deflation: On Procyclical Credit Ratings

Credit rating agencies play a crucial role in financial markets. There are two competing views regarding their behavior: some argue that they engage in rating inflation, while others suggest that they deflate ratings. This article offers a rationale that reconciles the two opposite arguments. We find that both rating inflation and rating deflation can occur in equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that credit rating is procyclical: rating inflation is more likely to happen in a boom while rating deflation is more likely to happen in a recession

The ratio of CRP to prealbumin levels predict mortality in patients with hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Animal and human studies suggest that inflammation and malnutrition are common in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients. However, only a few studies reported CRP, a marker of inflammation, albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol, markers of nutritional status were associated with the prognosis of AKI patients. No study examined whether the combination of inflammatory and nutritional markers could predict the mortality of AKI patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>155 patients with hospital-acquired AKI were recruited to this prospective cohort study according to RIFLE (Risk, Injury, Failure, Lost or End Stage Kidney) criteria. C-reactive protein (CRP), and the nutritional markers (albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol) measured at nephrology consultation were analyzed in relation to all cause mortality of these patients. In addition, CRP and prealbumin were also measured in healthy controls (n = 45), maintenance hemodialysis (n = 70) and peritoneal dialysis patients (n = 50) and then compared with AKI patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared with healthy controls and end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis, patients with AKI had significantly higher levels of CRP/prealbumin (<it>p </it>< 0.001). Higher level of serum CRP and lower levels of albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol were found to be significant in the patients with AKI who died within 28 days than those who survived >28 days. Similarly, the combined factors including the ratio of CRP to albumin (CRP/albumin), CRP/prealbumin and CRP/cholesterol were also significantly higher in the former group (<it>p </it>< 0.001 for all). Multivariate analysis (Cox regression) revealed that CRP/prealbumin was independently associated with mortality after adjustment for age, gender, sepsis and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA, <it>p </it>= 0.027) while the others (CRP, albumin, prealbumin, cholesterol, CRP/albumin and CRP/cholesterol) became non-significantly associated. The hazard ratio was 1.00 (reference), 1.85, 2.25 and 3.89 for CRP/prealbumin increasing according to quartiles (<it>p </it>= 0.01 for the trend).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Inflammation and malnutrition were common in patients with AKI. Higher level of the ratio of CRP to prealbumin was associated with mortality of AKI patients independent of the severity of illness and it may be a valuable addition to SOFA score to independent of the severity of illness and it may be a valuable addition to SOFA score to predict the prognosis of AKI patients.</p

Rating Inflation versus Deflation: On Procyclical Credit Ratings

Credit rating agencies play a crucial role in financial markets. There are two competing views regarding their behavior: some argue that they engage in rating inflation, while others suggest that they deflate ratings. This article offers a rationale that reconciles the two opposite arguments. We find that both rating inflation and rating deflation can occur in equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that credit rating is procyclical: rating inflation is more likely to happen in a boom while rating deflation is more likely to happen in a recession

The Effects of Venture Capital Investment on P2P Lending: Evidence from Users™ Responses in Social Media

Using panel-structured data from a leading P2P lending portal in China, we investigate the effects of VC investment on the performance of Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. We find that VCs prefer to the platforms having larger transaction vol

Strategic Insider Trading: Disguising Order Flows to Escape Trading Competition

Short sellers actively exploit trading opportunities from insider sales. We argue that, in response to concern about potential order flow information leakage, insiders strategically disguise their order flows to escape trading competition. Our model predicts that, when short sellers are sensitive to order flow information, insiders are more likely to adopt a cautious trading strategy, i.e., splitting their trades over time. Empirically, we identify cautious trading by tracking consecutive transactions at the insider-strategy level. We find that, when anticipating intensive short selling potential, (1) insiders tend to trade cautiously; and (2) cautious insiders tend to reduce their initial trades. Overall, we highlight the strategic interaction between insiders and short sellers on the diffusion of order flow information

Analytic solution of field distribution and demagnetization function of ideal hollow cylindrical field source

The Halbach type hollow cylindrical permanent magnet array (HCPMA) is a volume compact and energy conserved field source, which have attracted intense interests in many practical applications. Here, using the complex variable integration method based on the Biot-Savart Law (including current distributions inside the body and on the surfaces of magnet), we derive analytical field solutions to an ideal multipole HCPMA in entire space including the interior of magnet. The analytic field expression inside the array material is used to construct an analytic demagnetization function, with which we can explain the origin of demagnetization phenomena in HCPMA by taking into account an ideal magnetic hysteresis loop with finite coercivity. These analytical field expressions and demagnetization functions provide deeper insight into the nature of such permanent magnet array systems and offer guidance in designing optimized array system

PCA3 rs544190G>A and prostate cancer risk in an eastern Chinese population

ABSTRACT Background: The association of prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) polymorphism (SNP, rs544190G>A) with metastatic prostate cancer in European descent has been reported. Our aim of the current study was to re-validate the effect of PCA3 polymorphism on prostate cancer risk in an Eastern Chinese population and then estimate possible genetic discrepancies among population. Materials and Methods: Taqman assay was employed to determine genotype of SNP rs544190 in 1015 ethnic Han Chinese patients with prostate cancer and 1032 cancer-free controls. Simultaneously, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for risk relationship were calculated by logistic regression models. Results: The statistically significant relationship between PCA3 rs544190G>A and higher prostate cancer risk was not found. Stratification analysis revealed that there was no remarkable association of rs544190 variant AG/AA genotype with prostate cancer risk in every subgroup, except for patients with Gleason score ≤7(3+4). Conclusion: Although the results demonstrated that SNP rs544190 was not involved in prostate cancer risk in Eastern Chinese descent, unlike in European population, these might have clinical implications on prostate cancer heterogeneity around the World. To validate these findings, well-designed studies with different ethnic populations are warranted

Prognostic significance of the dynamic changes of systemic inflammatory response in metastatic renal cell carcinoma

ABSTRACT Purpose: To elucidate the prognostic value of systemic inflammatory response in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) who are treated with sunitinib, we evaluated the prognostic role of C-reactive protein (CRP) kinetics. This study also compared prognostic models containing CRP kinetics and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) kinetics. Materials and Methods: A consecutive cohort of 94 patients with mRCC who were treated with sunitinib was retrospectively included from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center. According to dynamic changes in CRP and the NLR, patients were divided into three groups for analysis of CRP and NLR kinetics. The associations between survival and potential prognostic factors were assessed. The incremental value of prognostication was evaluated. Results: A significant difference (P<0.001) in overall survival (OS) was observed among the three groups of CRP kinetics. The median OS of the non-elevated group was nearly 1.3-fold longer than that of the normalized group (33.0 vs. 26.3 months), and two times longer than that of the non-normalized group (33.0 vs. 14.0 months). Multivariate analysis showed that CRP and NLR kinetics were independent prognostic indicators. The model containing CRP kinetics had a better predictive accuracy than that with NLR kinetics, which was supported by the C-index (0.731 vs. 0.684) and the likelihood ratio χ2 test (79.9% vs. 44.9%). Conclusion: Our study suggests that dynamic changes in CRP can better predict survival in patients with mRCC who are treated with sunitinib. Routine assessment of CRP before and after targeted therapy would help identify patients at risk of a poor outcome

Strategic insider trading: Disguising order flows to escape trading competition

Short sellers actively exploit trading opportunities from insider sales. We argue that, in response to concern about potential order flow information leakage, insiders strategically disguise their order flows to escape trading competition. Our model predicts that, when short sellers are sensitive to order flow information, insiders are more likely to adopt a cautious trading strategy, i.e., splitting their trades over time. Empirically, we identify cautious trading by tracking consecutive transactions at the insider-strategy level. We find that, when anticipating intensive short selling potential, (1) insiders tend to trade cautiously; and (2) cautious insiders tend to reduce their initial trades. Overall, we highlight the strategic interaction between insiders and short sellers on the diffusion of order flow information