On the regional variability of dB/dt and its significance to GIC

Faraday's law of induction is responsible for setting up a geoelectric field due to the variations in the geomagnetic field caused by ionospheric currents. This drives geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which flow in large ground‐based technological infrastructure such as high‐voltage power lines. The geoelectric field is often a localized phenomenon exhibiting significant variations over spatial scales of only hundreds of kilometers. This is due to the complex spatiotemporal behavior of electrical currents flowing in the ionosphere and/or large gradients in the ground conductivity due to highly structured local geological properties. Over some regions, and during large storms, both of these effects become significant. In this study, we quantify the regional variability of dB/dt using closely placed IMAGE stations in northern Fennoscandia. The dependency between regional variability, solar wind conditions, and geomagnetic indices are also investigated. Finally, we assess the significance of spatial geomagnetic variations to modeling GICs across a transmission line. Key results from this study are as follows: (1) Regional geomagnetic disturbances are important in modeling GIC during strong storms; (2) dB/dt can vary by several times up to a factor of three compared to the spatial average; (3) dB/dt and its regional variation is coupled to the energy deposited into the magnetosphere; and (4) regional variability can be more accurately captured and predicted from a local index as opposed to a global one. These results demonstrate the need for denser magnetometer networks at high latitudes where transmission lines extending hundreds of kilometers are present

System identification of local time electron fluencies at geostationary orbit

The electron fluxes at geostationary orbit measured by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 13, 14, and 15 spacecraft are modeled using system identification techniques. System identification, similar to machine learning, uses input‐output data to train a model, which can then be used to provide forecasts. This study employs the nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous technique to deduce the electron flux models. The electron fluxes at geostationary orbit are known to vary in space and time, making it a spatiotemporal system, which complicates the modeling using system identification/machine learning approach. Therefore, the electron flux data are binned into 24 magnetic local time (MLT), and a separate model is developed for each of the 24 MLT bins. MLT models are developed for six of the GOES 13, 14, and 15 electron flux energy channels (75 keV, 150 keV, 275 keV, 475 keV, >800 keV, and >2 MeV). The models are assessed on separate test data by prediction efficiency (PE) and correlation coefficient (CC) and found these to vary by MLT and electron energy. The lowest energy of 75 keV at the midnight sector had a PE of 36.0 and CC of 59.3, which increased on the dayside to a PE of 66.9 and CC of 81.6. These metrics increased to the >2 MeV model, which had a low PE and CC of 63.0 and 81.8 on the nightside to a high of 80.3 and 90.8 on the dayside

Modeling the geomagnetic response to the September 2017 space weather event over Fennoscandia using the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Studying the impacts of spatial resolution

We must be able to predict and mitigate against GIC effects to minimize socio‐economic impacts. This study employs the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the 7‐8 September 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional‐scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: 1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, 2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and 3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global MHD modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large‐amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model‐data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field

Direct evidence of nonstationary collisionless shocks in space plasmas

Collisionless shocks are ubiquitous throughout the universe: around stars, supernova remnants, active galactic nuclei, binary systems, comets, and planets. Key information is carried by electromagnetic emissions from particles accelerated by high Mach number collisionless shocks. These shocks are intrinsically nonstationary, and the characteristic physical scales responsible for particle acceleration remain unknown. Quantifying these scales is crucial, as it affects the fundamental process of redistributing upstream plasma kinetic energy into other degrees of freedom—particularly electron thermalization. Direct in situ measurements of nonstationary shock dynamics have not been reported. Thus, the model that best describes this process has remained unknown. Here, we present direct evidence demonstrating that the transition to nonstationarity is associated with electron-scale field structures inside the shock ramp

Properties of Magnetic Reconnection and FTEs on the Dayside Magnetopause With and Without Positive IMF B-x Component During Southward IMF

This paper describes properties and behavior of magnetic reconnection and flux transfer events (FTEs) on the dayside magnetopause using the global hybrid-Vlasov code Vlasiator. We investigate two simulation runs with and without a sunward (positive)B-x component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) when the IMF is southward. The runs are two-dimensional in real space in the noon-midnight meridional (polar) plane and three-dimensional in velocity space. Solar wind input parameters are identical in the two simulations with the exception that the IMF is purely southward in one but tilted 45 degrees toward the Sun in the other. In the purely southward case (i.e., without B-x) the magnitude of the magnetos heath magnetic field component tangential to the magnetopause is larger than in the run with a sunward tilt. This is because the shock normal is perpendicular to the IMF at the equatorial plane, whereas in the other run the shock configuration is oblique and a smaller fraction of the total IMF strength is compressed at the shock crossing. Hence, the measured average and maximum reconnection rate are larger in the purely southward run. The run with tilted IMF also exhibits a north-south asymmetry in the tangential magnetic field caused by the different angle between the IMF and the bow shock normal north and south of the equator. Greater north-south asymmetries are seen in the FTE occurrence rate, size, and velocity as well; FTEs moving toward the Southern Hemisphere are larger in size and observed less frequently than FTEs in the Northern Hemisphere.Peer reviewe

BepiColombo’s Cruise Phase: Unique Opportunity for Synergistic Observations

The investigation of multi-spacecraft coordinated observations during the cruise phase of BepiColombo (ESA/JAXA) are reported, with a particular emphasis on the recently launched missions, Solar Orbiter (ESA/NASA) and Parker Solar Probe (NASA). Despite some payload constraints, many instruments onboard BepiColombo are operating during its cruise phase simultaneously covering a wide range of heliocentric distances (0.28 AU–0.5 AU). Hence, the various spacecraft configurations and the combined in-situ and remote sensing measurements from the different spacecraft, offer unique opportunities for BepiColombo to be part of these unprecedented multipoint synergistic observations and for potential scientific studies in the inner heliosphere, even before its orbit insertion around Mercury in December 2025. The main goal of this report is to present the coordinated observation opportunities during the cruise phase of BepiColombo (excluding the planetary flybys). We summarize the identified science topics, the operational instruments, the method we have used to identify the windows of opportunity and discuss the planning of joint observations in the future.</p

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.Peer reviewe

Universal properties of mirror mode turbulence in the Earth's magnetosheath

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A statistical study of the dawn-dusk asymmetry of ion temperature anisotropy and mirror mode occurrence in the terrestrial dayside magnetosheath using THEMIS data

Peer reviewe