Should governments in Europe be more aggressive in pushing for gender equality to raise fertility? The first "NO"

This paper takes the "no" side in the debate on the question posed in the title. The paper assumes that the dual-earner/dual-carer household model is the most likely aim of policies that push aggressively for gender equality in order to raise fertility. Five objections are discussed: the model does not necessarily lead to a fertility increase; aggressiveness will lead to an imbalance of labor supply and demand, and is likely to confront slowly changing cultural norms; similar policies will also confront the issue of innate gender differences; and country idiosyncrasies prevent the application of a unified policy approach. The paper briefly concludes that compatible gender-neutral family policies and fertility-neutral gender policies are likely to lead to an increase in fertility.

Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe

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Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility

This chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable decline in fertility. Before the fall of communism, fertility trends in Bulgaria were stable and characterized by a nearly universal entry into parenthood, dominance of a two-child family model, an early start and early end of childbearing, stable mean ages at entry into childbearing and marriage, and low percentages of non-marital births. During the 1990s and in the first years of the new century, we observe a marked, rapid change in fertility behaviour. Together with the severe decline in overall fertility rates, demographic data reveal a significant postponement of entry into motherhood and marriage, a decline of the two-child family model, and an emergence of new family forms. Most research attributes these changes to the particular political and social situation in Bulgaria since 1989.Bulgaria, childbearing, Europe, fertility

Religion and fertility ideals, intentions and behaviour: a comparative study of European countries

European demographers rarely study religion as a determinant of contemporary demographic behaviour. One reason could be the secularisation observed in European countries, implying that the effect of religiosity has been diminishing. This paper aims to show that religion can have an important impact on ideals, intentions and behaviour related to fertility. First we discuss recent trends in religiosity. We base our ensuing hypotheses on three deliberations why religion may have a bearing on fertility: importance of religious teaching, effect of social capital and function of religion to decrease uncertainty. Using FFS data we examine the influence of several measures of religiosity on the ideal number of children and intentions to have a second and third child, as well as on the expected and actual number of children. We find that all measures of religiosity are in general related to a higher ideal number of children, higher odds to intend another child and higher expected and actual number of children. Participation in religious services turns out to be slightly more salient than affiliation and self-assessed religiosity. We also discover that the effect of religion on ideals is more pronounced than its effect on intentions. Ideals stay further away from behaviour than intentions do and hence the influence of religion is intermediated by other social systems.

Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends

The paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate a large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables describing various life course events: leaving home and separation from the parental family, entry into union, first and second childbirth, divorce. Life tables are constructed for real cohorts as well as for synthetic cohorts. We study four real cohorts, born in 1940-44, 1950-54, 1960-64 and 1970-74. Synthetic-cohort life tables are constructed for three periods of time, referring to the pre-transitional demographic situation (1985-1989), the beginning of the transition (1990-1994) and recent demographic developments (1999-2003). We study also Roma and Turkish ethnic groups in Bulgaria. The life tables deliver detailed information that is otherwise unavailable. Our tentative findings indicate that societal transformation had a stronger impact on family-related behavior in the Bulgarian population than in the population of Russia. There is evidence that in some aspects Bulgaria is lagging behind other former socialist and Western European countries where the second demographic transition is more advanced. Evidence also suggests that Russia is lagging behind Bulgaria. However, certain specific features distinctive to Russia, such as the low level of childlessness, a drastic drop in second and subsequent births, and very high divorce rates even compared to Western European countries (it is a long-standing, not just recent trend), lead us to think that Russia may have a model of change particular to the country.Bulgaria, fertility, life tables, Russia, union formation

Life-table representations of family dynamics in Sweden and Hungary: initiation of a project of descriptions of demographic behavior

In this paper, we present a system of descriptions of family-demographic behavior in developed countries. We use life-table techniques in order to describe the experiences of men, women, and children in processes related to family formation and family dissolution. We develop a large number of descriptive measures and apply them to survey data from Sweden and Hungary. The paper demonstrates the potential of our descriptive system for further cross-country comparisons of the demographic behavior in European countries. (AUTHORS)Hungary, Sweden

Life-table representations of family dynamics in Sweden, Hungary, and 14 other FFS countries

In this study, we present a system of descriptions of family-demographic behavior in developed countries. We use life-table techniques in order to describe the experience of men, of women, and of children in processes related to family formation and family dissolution. We develop a large number of descriptive measures, and apply them to survey data from Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, the USA, Austria, Germany (East and West Germany separately), Flanders, Italy, Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, in order to describe patterns in the family-demographic behavior during the late 1980s - early 1990s. We use Sweden and Hungary as examples when presenting the outline of our system of tabulations and provide results for the whole set of countries in an Appendix to the paper.description, family dynamics, life tables

Fertility intentions and outcomes: the role of policies to close the gap

The articles in this special issue report about research carried out in a project with the same title as this introductory article (acronym FERTINT). This introduction starts with a brief description of the "fertility gap". It outlines its deficiencies when used for policy implications and the advantages of using fertility intentions. It also summarises the broad scope of issues related to intentions as presented in the articles: life-time and short-time fertility intentions and their realisation or frustration, the effect of uncertainty on intentions, the relevance of the theories of planned behaviour and fertility preferences and of social networks for studying couples' and competing intentions.Les articles de ce numéro spécial rendent compte de recherches menées dans le cadre d’un projet ayant le même intitulé que cet article introductif (avec pour acronyme FERTINT). L’introduction débute par une brève description du "décalage de fécondité". L’inadaptation de cet indicateur pour la mise en place des politiques publiques est souligné, de même que le sont les avantages liés à l’utilisation des intentions de fécondité. L’introduction résume l’étendue des problématiques présentées dans les articles: les intentions au cours de la vie ou à court terme, réalisées ou pas, l’effet de l’incertitude sur les intentions, la pertinence des théories de planification du comportement par rapport aux préférences pour la fécondité, et celle des réseaux sociaux pour l’étude des couples et des intentions concurrentes

The effect of competing intentions and behaviour on short-term childbearing intentions and subsequent childbearing

This article examines the effect that intentions to start studying and to enter into employment may have on childbearing intentions and subsequent childbearing. The analysis also includes the impact of the corresponding behaviour: currently studying or being employed. The theoretical background draws on Barber's study of competing attitudes, with an emphasis on competing intentions. Based on survey and register data for Bulgaria, the analyses reveal the effect of competing intentions. For example, the intention to start studying hampers the construction and subsequent realisation of intentions to have a child within 2 years. The actual behaviour of currently studying has the same effect; both effects are most pronounced for intentions to become a parent and for actual entry into parenthood. Inversely, an intention to enter into employment facilitates childbearing intentions and, for men, so does the behaviour of being employed. The latter result holds for women’s intention to have a second child. The findings indicate that when childbearing intentions and realisation are analysed, it is preferable to consider persons with a competing intention to start studying either as a separate group or group them with those who are currently studying, not with those who are not. Logistic regression models and interaction effects are applied for the analyses.Cet article examine l’effet que l’intention de commencer des études et l’intention d’entrer dans la vie active peuvent exercer sur les intentions de procréation et la procréation ultérieure. L’analyse tient compte également de l’impact du comportement correspondant : être en cours de scolarité, ou être en situation emploi. Le cadre théorique s’appuie sur l’étude par Barber des attitudes concurrentes, et met l’accent sur les intentions concurrentes. A partir de données d’enquêtes et d’état civil rassemblées en Bulgarie, les analyses menées révèlent l’effet des intentions concurrentes. Par exemple, l’intention de commencer des études entrave la construction et la réalisation ultérieure des intentions d’avoir un enfant dans les deux années à venir. Il en est de même pour le fait de d’être en cours de scolarité. Les deux effets sont le plus prononcés pour l’intention de devenir parent et pour l’entrée dans la parentalité. A l’opposé, l’intention d’entrer dans la vie active favorise les intentions de procréation, et, pour les hommes, il en est de même pour le fait d’être en situation d’emploi. Pour les femmes, être en situation d’emploi favorise l’intention d’avoir un second enfant. Tout ceci indique que pour analyser les intentions de procréation et la réalisation de ces intentions, il est préférable d’étudier séparément les personnes ayant exprimé l’intention concurrente de commencer des études, ou de les grouper avec celles qui sont en cours de scolarité, plutôt qu’avec celles qui ne le sont pas. Des modèles de régression logistique et des effets d’interaction ont été mis en œuvre dans les analyses

Can policies enhance fertility in Europe?

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