A decision-analytic approach to define poor prognosis patients: a case study for non-seminomatous germ cell cancer patients

Abstract Background Classification systems may be useful to direct more aggressive treatment to cancer patients with a relatively poor prognosis. The definition of 'poor prognosis' often lacks a formal basis. We propose a decision analytic approach to weigh benefits and harms explicitly to define the treatment threshold for more aggressive treatment. This approach is illustrated by a case study in advanced testicular cancer, where patients with a high risk of mortality under standard treatment may be eligible for high-dose chemotherapy with stem cell support, which is currently defined by the IGCC classification. Methods We used published literature to estimate the benefit and harm of high-dose chemotherapy (HD-CT) versus standard-dose chemotherapy (SD-CT) for patients with advanced non-seminomatous germ cell cancer. Benefit and harm were defined as the reduction and increase in absolute risk of mortality due to HD-CT respectively. Harm included early and late treatment related death, and treatment related morbidity (weighted by 'utility'). Results We considered a conservative and an optimistic benefit of 30 and 40% risk reduction respectively. We estimated the excess treatment related mortality at 2%. When treatment related morbidity was taken into account, the harm of HD-CT increased to 5%. With a relative benefit of 30% and harm of 2 or 5%, HD-CT might be beneficial for patients with over 7 or 17% risk of cancer specific mortality with SD chemotherapy, while with a relative benefit of 40% HD-CT was beneficial over 5 and 12.5% risk respectively. Compared to the IGCC classification 14% of the patients would receive more aggressive treatment, and 2% less intensive treatment. Conclusion Benefit and harm can be used to define 'poor prognosis' explicitly for non-seminomatous germ cell cancer patients who are considered for high-dose chemotherapy. This approach can readily be adapted to new results and extended to other cancers to define candidates for more aggressive treatments.</p

A decision-analytic approach to define poor prognosis patients: A case study for non-seminomatous germ cell cancer patients

Background. Classification systems may be useful to direct more aggressive treatment to cancer patients with a relatively poor prognosis. The definition of 'poor prognosis' often lacks a formal basis. We propose a decision analytic approach to weigh benefits and harms explicitly to define the treatment threshold for more aggressive treatment. This approach is illustrated by a case study in advanced testicular cancer, where patients with a high risk of mortality under standard treatment may be eligible for high-dose chemotherapy with stem cell support, which is currently defined by the IGCC classification. Methods. We use

The management of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN): Extensiveness and costs in The Netherlands

In order to provide greater insight into both the extensiveness and the medical costs of the diagnosis and treatment of screen-detected cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) in general medical practice in The Netherlands, data from national registries and gynaecology departments were retrieved, and experts were interviewed. Of the 5060 women diagnosed with CIN in 1988, more than 50% were treated in hospital with conisation or hysterectomy, which on average took 5.5 days stay per admission. The assessed average duration of the total pre- and post-treatment period is 4.6 years. The average total medical costs in women with detected CIN III are Dfl 3700 per woman. The diagnosis of CIN I and II involves more medical procedures and time than CIN III, but fewer women have conisation or hysterectomy, resulting in lower total medical costs (Dfl 2572). The overall extent and costs of the management of CIN should be accounted for when balancing the benefits, unfavourable effects and costs of cervical cancer screening

Blood transfusions for severe malaria-related anemia in Africa: a decision analysis

Severe childhood malarial anemia is commonly treated using blood transfusion. Although transfusion may decrease short-term mortality, the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission is considerable in Africa. We constructed a decision tree to weigh the short-term mortality benefit of transfusion against HIV infection risk. Probability estimates were derived from published studies. The base-case was a two-year-old child with a 13.5% mortality risk to be transfused with screened or unscreened blood (1% or 13% HIV contamination risk, respectively), with reduction of mortality to 5.5% by transfusion (odds ratio=2.7), and a 2.4% risk of fatal transfusion complications. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of variation in these estimates. If a child developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, survival was weighed as one-tenth of normal survival. For the base-case, we found that transfusion with screened blood provided a survival benefit of 5%. In contrast, transfusion with unscreened blood decreased survival by 2%. Patients with a mortality risk < 5% derived no benefit from a transfusion with screened blood. Other important factors for the benefit of transfusion were the effectiv