Energy and the State of Nations

The mathematical conditions for the existence of macroeconomic production functions that are state functions of the economic system are pointed out. The output elasticities and the elasticities of substitution of energy-dependent Cobb-Douglas, CES and LinEx production functions are calculated. The output elasticities, which measure the productive powers of production factors and whose numerical values have been obtained for Germany, Japan, and the USA, are for energy much larger and for labor much smaller than the cost shares of these factors. Energy and its conversion into physical work accounts for most of the growth that mainstream economics attributes to “technological progress” and related concepts. It decisively determines the economic state of nations. Consequences for automation and globalization and perspectives on growth are discussed.energy; economic growth; macroeconomic production functions; output elasticities

Measuring the Economic and Ecological Performance of OECD Countries

The economic and ecological performance of OECD countries over two decades is measured by employing a Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index. The index credits the expansion of goods (value added) and the contraction of bads (emissions), at given inputs. We consider the inputs of capital, labor, and energy, and the emissions of CO2, So2, and NOx. The calculated indices are decomposed into measures of efficiency change (?catching up?) and technical change (innovation). We analyse the variation of the results depending on the assumed returns to scale and dimensionality. Our findings suggest to employ aggregate analyses of productivity to identify crucial dimensions, which may then be analysed on a more disaggregated basis

On Growth and the Direction of Technological Change

Recent econometric analyses of growth in industrialized countries reveal that energy?s elasticity of production systematically exceeds its factor cost share, whereas for labor the opposite holds. The paper reviews these analyses that reflect the observed direction of technological change towards increasing automation

Service production functions

The paper derives production functions designed to model the evolution of service industries. The derivation is based on specifying the output elasticities of the factors according to differential equations and asymptotic technological boundary conditions in factor space. The derived functional forms incorporate labor, capital, energy, and technological parameters, whose time changes model innovation and structural change. The model is applied to the evolution of the German market-determined services 1960-1989

A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation: results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed-in

In this paper, we develop a methodology for deriving a consistent measure for supply adequacy in the power generation sector. We especially consider the secured generation capacity of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind. Availability of conventional power plants is estimated through stochastic convolution of unscheduled non-usabilities. We employ our methodology to measure supply security in Germany until 2030. A detailed market analysis of power plants that are currently being built or planned provides support to our analysis for the short term. For the long term, we rely on a large-scale dispatch and investment model of the European power sector to account for the embedding of the German electricity sector in the European market. We analyze two scenarios: one with prolongation of nuclear power plants and one with a nuclear phase-out. Our results show that, even though intermittent renewables only provide very limited secured generation capacity, security of electricity supply in Germany can be assured until 2015. In the long term, the need for backup capacity for renewable energy sources increases as well as the need for electricity imports.Supply adequacy; integration of renewable energy sources; power generation; German power sector; secured generation capacity

The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctuating renewables - a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe

Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for different shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and different correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of fluctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation.Stochastic programming; electricity; renewable energy

Promotion of electricity from renewable energy in Europe post 2020: The economic benefits of cooperation

In Europe, the availability of renewable energies, especially from sun and wind, differs significantly across regions. Consequently, cooperation in the deployment of renewable energy among European countries potentially yields substantial efficiency gains. However, in order to achieve the 2020 renewable energy targets for electricity, Member States of the European Union almost purely rely on domestic production. For the period after 2020, a European renewable energy target has not yet been defined, but decarbonization pathways outlined in the Roadmap of the European Commission include renewable energy shares of electricity generation to be 50-60% by 2030. Therefore, we analyze the benefits of cooperation compared to continuing with national renewable energy support after 2020. We use a large-scale dynamic investment and dispatch model of the European electricity system and find that compared to a 2030 CO2 -only target (-40% compared to 1990 emission levels), electricity system costs increase by 5 to 7% when a European-wide renewable energy target for electricity generation (of around 55%) is additionally implemented. However, these additional costs are lower by 41 to 45% compared to the additional electricity system costs which would arise if the renewable energy target was reached through national support systems (without cooperation). Furthermore, we find that the cooperation gains (i.e., the cost reduction achieved by cooperation) are quite robust: They decrease only slightly when interconnectors are not further extended (compared to today) and depend only slightly on assumptions about investment cost developments of renewable energy technologies. With regard to the practical implementation of cooperation, however, unclear administrative issues and questions concerning the fair sharing of costs and benefits between the Member States represent major obstacles that need to be tackled in order to reach renewable energy targets at the lowest costs possible

The Sledge on the Slope or: Energy in the Economy, and the Paradox of Theory and Policy

Energy conversion in the production of goods and services, and the resulting emissions associated with entropy production, have not yet been taken into account by the mainstream theory of economic growth. Novel econometric analyses, however, have revealed energy as a production factor whose output elasticity, which measures its productive power, is much higher than its share in total factor cost. This, although being at variance with the notion of orthodox economics, is supported by the standard maximization of profit or time-integrated utility, if one takes technological constraints on capital, labor, and energy into account. The present paper offers an explanation of these findings in the picture of a sledge, which represents the economy, on the slope of a niveous mountain, which represents cost. Historical economic trajectories indicate that the representative entrepreneur at the controls of the sledge steers his vehicle with due regard of the barriers from the technological constraints, observing “soft” constraints, like the legal framework of the market, in addition. We believe that this perspective contributes to resolving the paradox that energy hardly matters in mainstream growth theory, whereas it is an issue of growing importance in international policy

The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctuating renewables - a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe

Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for different shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and different correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of fluctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation

The economic inefficiency of grid parity: The case of German photovoltaics

Since PV grid paraity has already been achieved in Germany, households are given an indirect financial incentive to invest in PV and battery storage capacities. This paper analyzes the economic consequences of the household's optimization behavior induced by the indirect financial incentive for in-house PV electricity consumption by combining a household optimization model with an electricity system optimization model. Up to 2050, we find that households save 10% - 18% of their accumulated electricity costs by covering 38 - 57% of their annual electricity demand with self-produced PV electricity. Overall, cost savings on the household level amount to more than 47 bn 2011 up to 2050. However, while the consumption of self-produced electricity is beneficial from the single household's perspective, it is inefficient from the total system perspective. The single household optimization behavior is found to cause excess costs of 116 bn 2011 accumulated until 2050. Moreover, it leads to significant redistributional effects by raising the financial burden for (residual) electricity consumers by more than 35 bn 2011 up to 2050. In addition, it yields massive revenue losses on the side of the public sector and network operators of more than 77 and 69 bn 2011 by 2050 respectively. In order to enhance the overall economic efficiency, we argue that the financial incentive for in-house PV electricity consumption should be abolished and that energy-related network tariffs should be replaced by tariffs which reflect the costs of grid connection