Is more still better? Revisiting the Sixth District Coincident Indicator

A revised version of the D6 Factor model of the southeastern economy is better than the original at describing contemporary economic activity and allows for historical comparisons across several business cycles.

When more is better: assessing the southeastern economy with lots of data

The authors estimate a model that provides a single indicator for the southeastern economy, making it easier for policymakers and analysts to assess regional economic conditions and compare them to the broader economy.Federal Reserve District, 6th ; Econometric models

Bayesian estimation of NOEM models: identification and inference in small samples

This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these relationships in the context of a fully specified structural model using Bayesian estimation techniques. We trace the problems to sample size, rather than misspecification bias. We conclude that standard macroeconomic time series with a coverage of less than forty years are subject to potentially serious identification issues, and also to model selection errors. We recommend estimation with simulated data prior to bringing the model to the actual data as a way of detecting parameters that are susceptible to weak identification in short samples.Macroeconomics - Econometric models

Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: an empirical assessment

In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks into an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses several of the existing puzzles in the literature. In particular, we obtain a negative correlation of relative consumption and the terms of trade (Backus-Smith puzzle), as well as a more volatile real exchange rate, and cross-country output correlations that are higher than consumption correlations (price and quantity puzzles). Then we use data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the relative price of investment to build and estimate these IST processes across the United States and a "rest of the world" aggregate, showing that they are cointegrated and well represented by a vector error–correction model. Finally, we demonstrate that, when we fit such estimated IST processes into the model, the shocks are actually powerless to explain any of the existing puzzles.

A Service of zbw Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Remittances and the Dutch disease FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA Remittances and the Dutch Disease The authors thank Remittances and the Dutch Disease

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The authors thank Enrique Mendoza, Kolver Hernández, Peter Ireland, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, José Pineda, Rob Vigfusson, Diego Vilán, Carlos Zarazaga, and seminar participants at the Inter-American Development Bank, the Atlanta Fed, the SCIEA meetings at the Philadelphia Fed, California State University-Fullerton, LACEA-LAMES, SEA, CCMS, the University of Torcuado Di Tella, the Central Bank of Argentina, and the Central Bank of the Philippines for helpful comments. Sergio Guerra and M. Laurel Graefe provided superb research assistance. The views expressed here are the authors' and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve System, or the World Bank. Any remaining errors are the authors' responsibility. Abstract: Using data for El Salvador and Bayesian techniques, we develop and estimate a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of remittances in emerging market economies. We find that, whether altruistically motivated or otherwise, an increase in remittance flows leads to a decline in labor supply and an increase in consumption demand that is biased toward nontradables. The higher nontradable prices serve as incentive for an expansion of that sector, culminating in reallocation of labor away from the tradable sector; a phenomenon known as the Dutch disease. Quantitative results also indicate that remittances improve households' welfare as they smooth income flows and increase consumption and leisure levels. A Bayesian vector autoregression analysis provides results that are consistent with the dynamics of the model. JEL classification: F40 F41 O10 Terms of use: Documents i