Output growth differentials across the euro area countries - some stylised facts

The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which the dispersion of real GDP growth rates has changed over the past few years and whether the synchronisation of business cycles has increased among the euro area countries. The study is divided into two main parts. The f irst focuses on the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries, while the second studies the synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area. The study shows first that dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries in both unweighted and weighted terms has no apparent upward or downward trend during the period 1970-2004 as a whole. Second, since the beginning of the 1990s, the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries has largely reflected lasting trend growth differences, and less so cyclical differences, with some countries persistently exhibiting output growth either above or below the euro area average. Among other things, this might be due to different trends in demographics, as well as to differences in structural reforms undertaken in the past. Thirdly, the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across the euro area countries seems to have increased since the beginning of the 1990s. This f inding holds for various measures of synchronisation applied to overall activity and to the cyclical component, for annual and quarterly data, as well as for various country groupings. In particular, the degree of correlation currently appears to be at a historical high. In addition to these main findings, certain other stylised facts on dispersion and synchronisation are presented. JEL Classification: C10; E32; O40.Dispersion of GDP growth across the euro area countries; trend and cycle; synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area.

To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting

In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro area countries. The direct approach provides clearly better results than the indirect approach for 12 and 18 steps ahead for the overall HICP, while for shorter horizons the results are mixed. For the euro area HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy(HICPX), the indirect forecast outperforms the direct whereas the differences are only marginal for the countries. The aggregation of country forecasts does not seem to improve upon the forecast of the euro area HICP and HICPX. This result has however to be taken with caution as differences appear to be rather small and due to the limited country coverage. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C53, E31, E37Bayesian VARs, Forecasting short-term inflation, HICP sub-components/aggregation, Model Selection

Impact of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors on clinical outcomes and ventricular remodelling after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: rationale and design of the RASTAVI randomised multicentre study.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) as a treatment in severe aortic stenosis (AS) is an excellent alternative to conventional surgical replacement. However, long-term outcomes are not benign. Renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockade has shown benefit in terms of adverse remodelling in severe AS and after surgical replacement. The RAS blockade after TAVI (RASTAVI) trial aims to detect if there is a benefit in clinical outcomes and ventricular remodelling with this therapeutic strategy following the TAVI procedure. The study has been designed as a randomised 1:1 open-label study that will be undertaken in 8 centres including 336 TAVI recipients. All patients will receive the standard treatment. The active treatment group will receive ramipril as well. Randomisation will be done before discharge, after signing informed consent. All patients will be followed up for 3 years. A cardiac magnetic resonance will be performed initially and at 1 year to assess ventricular remodelling, defined as ventricular dimensions, ejection fraction, ventricular mass and fibrosis. Recorded events will include cardiac death, admission due to heart failure and stroke. The RASTAVI Study will improve the management of patients after TAVI and may help to increase their quality of life, reduce readmissions and improve long-term survival in this scenario. All authors and local ethics committees have approved the study design. All patients will provide informed consent. Results will be published irrespective of whether the findings are positive or negative. NCT03201185

Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibition Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

Several studies have demonstrated the benefits of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in patients with aortic stenosis, but the presence of persistent fibrosis and myocardial hypertrophy has been related to worse prognosis. The aim of this study was to explore the potential benefits of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors on left ventricular remodeling and major clinical outcomes following successful transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Patients from 10 institutions with severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR between August 2007 and August 2017 were included. All baseline data were prospectively recorded, and pre-specified follow-up was performed. Doses and types of RAS inhibitors at discharge were recorded, and matched comparison according to their prescription at discharge was performed. A total of 2,785 patients were included. Patients treated with RAS inhibitors (n = 1,622) presented similar surgical risk scores but a higher rate of all cardiovascular risk factors, coronary disease, and myocardial infarction. After adjustment for these baseline differences, reduction of left ventricular volumes and hypertrophy was greater and cardiovascular mortality at 3-year follow-up was lower (odds ratio: 0.59; 95% confidence interval: 0.41 to 0.87; p = 0.007) in patients treated with RAS inhibitors. Moreover, RAS inhibitors demonstrated a global cardiovascular protective effect with significantly lower rates of new-onset atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular events, and readmissions. Post-TAVR RAS inhibitors are associated with lower cardiac mortality at 3-year follow-up and offer a global cardiovascular protective effect that might be partially explained by a positive left ventricular remodeling. An ongoing randomized trial will help confirm these hypothesis-generating findings. (Renin-Angiotensin System Blockade Benefits in Clinical Evolution and Ventricular Remodeling After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation [RASTAVI]; NCT03201185)