Sampling rare fluctuations of height in the Oslo ricepile model

We have studied large deviations of the height of the pile from its mean value in the Oslo ricepile model. We sampled these very rare events with probabilities of order $10^{-100}$ by Monte Carlo simulations using importance sampling. These simulations check our qualitative arguement [Phys. Rev. E, {\bf 73}, 021303, 2006] that in steady state of the Oslo ricepile model, the probability of large negative height fluctuations $\Delta h=-\alpha L$ about the mean varies as $\exp(-\kappa {\alpha}^4 L^3)$ as $L \to \infty$ with $\alpha$ held fixed, and $\kappa > 0$.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure

Probability distribution of residence-times of grains in sandpile models

We show that the probability distribution of the residence-times of sand grains in sandpile models, in the scaling limit, can be expressed in terms of the survival probability of a single diffusing particle in a medium with absorbing boundaries and space-dependent jump rates. The scaling function for the probability distribution of residence times is non-universal, and depends on the probability distribution according to which grains are added at different sites. We determine this function exactly for the 1-dimensional sandpile when grains are added randomly only at the ends. For sandpiles with grains are added everywhere with equal probability, in any dimension and of arbitrary shape, we prove that, in the scaling limit, the probability that the residence time greater than t is exp(-t/M), where M is the average mass of the pile in the steady state. We also study finite-size corrections to this function.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, extra file delete

Precursors of catastrophe in the BTW, Manna and random fiber bundle models of failure

We have studied precursors of the global failure in some self-organised critical models of sand-pile (in BTW and Manna models) and in the random fiber bundle model (RFB). In both BTW and Manna model, as one adds a small but fixed number of sand grains (heights) to any central site of the stable pile, the local dynamics starts and continues for an average relaxation time (\tau) and an average number of topplings (\Delta) spread over a radial distance (\xi). We find that these quantities all depend on the average height (h_{av}) of the pile and they all diverge as (h_{av}) approaches the critical height (h_{c}) from below: (\Delta) (\sim (h_{c}-h_{av}))(^{-\delta}), (\tau \sim (h_{c}-h_{av})^{-\gamma}) and (\xi) (\sim) ((h_{c}-h_{av})^{-\nu}). Numerically we find (\delta \simeq 2.0), (\gamma \simeq 1.2) and (\nu \simeq 1.0) for both BTW and Manna model in two dimensions. In the strained RFB model we find that the breakdown susceptibility (\chi) (giving the differential increment of the number of broken fibers due to increase in external load) and the relaxation time (\tau), both diverge as the applied load or stress (\sigma) approaches the network failure threshold (\sigma_{c}) from below: (\chi) (\sim) ((\sigma_{c}) (-)(\sigma)^{-1/2}) and (\tau) (\sim) ((\sigma_{c}) (-)(\sigma)^{-1/2}). These self-organised dynamical models of failure therefore show some definite precursors with robust power laws long before the failure point. Such well-characterised precursors should help predicting the global failure point of the systems in advance.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures (eps

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Trends in key soil parameters under conservation agriculture-based sustainable intensification farming practices in the Eastern Ganga Alluvial Plains

Key soil parameters, organic matter, soil pH and plant nutrients determine the capacity of a soil to sustain plant and animal productivity. Conservation agriculture (CA) and crop diversification or intensification may change these soil parameters positively or negatively, which eventually affect long-term sustainability. We monitored these key soil properties (at depths of 0-15 and 15-30 cm) under CA-based sustainable intensification practices: zero-till (ZT), and crop residue retention, and crop rotations on Inceptisols and Entisols in the Eastern Ganga Alluvial Plains from 2014 to 2017. The rainfall of this sub-tropical region is 1273-3201 mm. Soil organic carbon (C) ranged within 0.46-1.13% and generally followed (positive) rainfall gradients. At all sites, the soil under ZT tended to have higher organic C than conventional tillage (CT). Soil pH ranged within 5.7-7.8 across the region. At all sites, soil pH generally decreased under ZT compared to CT. This was most marked at some acidic soil sites where pH decreased by up to 0.4 units; the lower the initial soil pH, the higher was the decrease in pH under ZT practice. In contrast, the reverse trend was observed for soil organic C. Partial nutrient balances for N, P and K in rice-wheat and rice-maize systems were positive for N and P