Interrelationship between cloud cover and sensible heat flux over land during MONTBLEX-1990

Micro-meteorological tower observations of MONTBLEX (Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment)- 1990, combined with routine surface observations at Jodhpur in the dry convective sector of Indian summer monsoon trough are used to examine the interrelationship between total cloud cover (TCC) and surface sensible heat flux (SHF) during the summer monsoon of 1990. A significant inverse relationship between TCC and SHF is found during various Intensive Observation Periods of the experiment. This relationship holds for the various methods of estimation of SHF. © Printed in India

Evolutionary features of marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the Arabian Sea and the onset of monsoon over Kerala during ARMEX-2003

In this study an attempt has been made to examine the evolutionary features of the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the marine atmosphere over the South-East Arabian Sea near 9.22°N, 74.51°E just two to three days prior to the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during 2003 and seek the linkages with the large-scale flow in the lower and middle troposphere at that time over the region. The marine meteorological data collected onboard ORV Sagarkanya as part of the experiment ARMEX-2003 for 4–8 June, 2003 are used. The monsoon onset over Kerala occurred on 8 June, 2003. The observed changes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) characteristics just two days prior to the onset are discussed. It is observed that the MABL increased in height up to 4 km on 6 June from an initial height 2.8 km on 5 June. The top of the MABL dried up (Relative Humidity RH ∼ 30–40%) with weak and variable winds throughout the day on 6 June while the air at 850 hPa is relatively humid (RH ∼ 50–80%) but not saturated. A sequential increase in RH is associated with a change in the winds from southwesterly to westerly from 6 June onwards until the onset date. The changes in the lower and middle troposphere flow patterns over the Arabian Sea and Indian region are highlighte

Evaluation of cloud properties in the NCEP CFSv2 model and its linkage with Indian summer monsoon

Cloud fraction, which varies greatly among general circulation models, plays a crucial role in simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model is evaluated in terms of its simulation of cloud fraction, cloud condensate, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and tropospheric temperature (TT). Biases in these simulated quantities are computed using observations from CALIPSO and reanalysis data from MERRA. It is shown that CFSv2 underestimates (overestimates) high- (mid-) level clouds. The cloud condensate is also examined to see its impact on different types of clouds. The upper-level cloud condensate is underestimated, particularly during the summer monsoon period, which leads to a cold TT and a dry precipitation bias. The unrealistically weak TT gradient between ocean and land is responsible for the underestimation of ISMR. The model-simulated OLR is overestimated which depicts the weaker convective activity. A large underestimate of precipitable water is also seen along the cross-equatorial flow and particularly over the Indian land region collocated with a dry precipitation bias. The linkages among cloud microphysical, thermodynamical, and dynamical processes are identified here. Thus, this study highlights the importance of cloud properties, a major cause of uncertainty in CFSv2, and also proposes a pathway for improvements in its simulation of the Indian summer monsoon

Salient features of Andhra Pradesh cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal during September 1997

During 23-30 September 1997, a rare cyclonic storm has developed close to the Andhra coast, and it has later travelled parallel to coastline northward and finally crossed the land at Chittagong (22°N, 91°E) on 27 September. While translating along the east coast of India, it has produced heavy to very heavy rainfall on the coastal stations causing devastating floods. In this study, we made an attempt to understand the salient causes of this unique cyclone movement. We have analyzed daily fields of wind and relative humidity for 850, 700, 500 hPa and mean daily OLR data to understand the plausible reasons for its movement. The buoy data deployed by National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai, Viz. DS5 (15°N, 81°E), DS4 (19°N, 88°E) and SW7 (20°N, 86°E) were analyzed to understand the ocean-atmosphere interaction processes in the west Bay of Bengal during formation of the system. Analysis of OLR over the cyclonic storm region has revealed that the heavy rainfall areas coincide with low OLR (120-180 W m -2). The persistent southward movement of 500 hPa ridge on the eastern wedge of the system along with the steering current at 200 hPa has helped in maintaining the movement of the system parallel to the east coast of India during its life cycle

Indian summer monsoon simulations with CFSv2: a microphysics perspective

The present study explores the impact of two different microphysical parameterization schemes (i.e. Zhao and Carr, Mon Wea Rev 125:1931-1953, 1997:called as ZC; Ferrier, Amer Meteor Soc 280-283, 2002: called as BF) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) on Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Critical relative humidity (RHcrit) plays a crucial role for the realistic cloud formation in a general circulation model (GCM). Hence, impact of RHcrit along with microphysical scheme on ISM is evaluated in the study. Model performance is evaluated in terms of simulation of rainfall, lower and upper tropospheric circulations, cloud fraction, cloud condensate and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Climatological mean features of rainfall are better represented by all the sensitivity experiments. Overall, ZC schemes show relatively better rainfall patterns as compared to BF schemes. BF schemes along with 95 % RHcrit (called as BF95) show excess precipitable water over Indian Ocean basin region, which seems to be unrealistic. Lower and upper tropospheric features are well simulated in all the sensitivity experiments; however, upper tropospheric wind patterns are underestimated as compared to observation. Spatial pattern and vertical profile of cloud condensate is relatively better represented by ZC schemes as compared to BF schemes. Relatively more (less) cloud condensate at upper level has lead to relatively better (low) high cloud fraction in ZC (BF) simulation. It is seen that OLR in ZC simulation have great proximity with observation. ZC (BF) simulations depict low (high) OLR which indicates stronger (weaker) convection during ISM period. It implies strong (weak) convection having stronger (weaker) updrafts in ZC (BF). Relatively more (less) cloud condensate at upper level of ZC (BF) may produce strong (weak) latent heating which may lead to relatively strong (weak) convection during ISM. The interaction among microphysics, thermodynamics, and dynamics works in tandem through a closed feedback loop

Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable?

Future projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its large-scale thermodynamic driver are studied by using CMIP5 model outputs. While all models project an increasing precipitation in the future warming scenario, most of them project a weakening large-scale thermodynamic driver arising from a weakening of the upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) gradient over south Asian summer monsoon region. The weakening of the UTT gradient under global warming scenarios is related to the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) leading to a stronger increase of UTT over the EIO region relative to the northern Indian region, a hypothesis supported by a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments forced by projected SSTs. To diagnose the inconsistency between the model projections of precipitation and the large-scale thermodynamic driver, we have examined the rate of total precipitation explained by convective and stratiform precipitations in observations and in CMIP5 models. It is found that most models produce too much (little) convective (stratiform) precipitation compared to observations. In addition, we also find stronger precipitable water-precipitation relationship in most CMIP5 models as compared to observations. Hence, the atmospheric moisture content produced by the model immediately gets converted to precipitation even though the large-scale thermodynamics in models weaken. Therefore, under global warming scenarios, due to increased temperature and resultant increased atmospheric moisture supply, these models tend to produce unrealistic local convective precipitation often not in tune with other large-scale variables. Our results questions the reliability of the ISMR projections in CMIP5 models and highlight the need to improve the convective parameterization schemes in coupled models for the reliable projections of the ISMR. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Cloud aerosol interactions and its influence on cloud microphysical parameters during dry and wet spells of Indian summer monsoon using CAIPEEX data

The variations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), aerosol and cloud particle concentration (PCASP), cloud droplet effective radius (CDPRe), and Liquid water content (LWC) have been measured using instrumented aircraft over Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Bareilly in India during Cloud Aerosol Interactions and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX-2009). Three intensive observation periods (IOPs) i.e. 17-22 June and 13 July representing the dry spells, and the IOP during 16-25 August, representing wet spells of Indian summer monsoon were analyzed. Cloud droplet size is highly sensitive to liquid water content and temperature in the cloud environment. The CDPRe and LWC show strong linear correlation during both dry spells and wet spells of ISMR. The mid level clouds CM ~ 2000 meters are more favorable for coalescence of cloud droplets leading to growth of CDPRe > 14 µm required for warm rain formation

Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere–ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further explains the possible reasons behind the realistic simulation of northward propagating BSISO in CFS T382, even though the model shows substantial biases in simulating mean state and other BSISO modes

Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs

The seasonal prediction skill [defined as the linear correlation (cc) between the observed and forecasted rainfall] of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is evaluated in the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model, at different lead times on the basis of its representation of large scale tropical teleconnection. Surprisingly, the model exhibits reasonable skill at a longer lead time (e.g. forecasts initialized with February initial conditions, Feb IC run, cc > 0.5) that is reasonably better when compared with that with forecast initialized at shorter lead time [April/May IC (Apr/May IC) runs, cc < 0.5]. Although the prediction skill of ISMR improves as lead time increases, the ENSO forecast skill improves as lead time decreases. Probable reasons for these counter-intuitive findings are investigated in this study

Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system(CFSv2)

This study explores the role played by ocean processes in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and compares the observed findings with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-coupled model Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The excess and deficit ISMR clearly brings out the distinct signatures in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, thermocline and mixed layer depth over north Indian Ocean. CFSv2 is successful in simulating SSH anomalies, especially over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal region. CFSv2 captures observed findings of SSH anomalies during flood and drought (e.g., Rossby wave propagation which reaches western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during flood years, Rossby wave propagation which did not reach western BoB during drought). It highlights the ability of CFSv2 to simulate the basic ocean processes which governs the SSH variability. These differences are basically generated by upwelling and downwelling caused by the equatorial and coastal Kelvin and Rossby waves, thereby causing difference in SSH anomaly and thermocline, and subsequently modifying the convection centers, which dictates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent region. Since the observed SSH anomaly and thermal structure show distinct characteristic features with respect to strong and weak ISMR variability, the assimilation of real ocean data in terms of satellite products (like SSHA from AVISO/SARAL) bestow great promise for the future improvement