Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management

Renkums Beekdal geopend : effecten sanering en herinrichting voormalig bedrijventerrein

Door het project herinrichting Renkums Beekdal zijn de bedrijven van het bedrijventerrein Beukenlaan verplaatst naar andere bedrijfslocaties. Het vertrek van Vredestein was cruciaal voor het opheffen van het hele terrein. Op de Beukenlaan kon zo ruimte worden gemaakt voor natuurherstel en de realisatie van de Ecologische Hoofdstructuur. De uitvoering van dit project heeft een groot aantal effecten voor Renkum en omgeving. In dit rapport wordt een overzicht gegeven van de effecten

Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse

In this study observed precipitation, temperature, and discharge records from the Meuse basin for the period 1911-2003 are analysed. The primary aim is to establish which meteorological conditions generate (critical) low-flows of the Meuse. This is achieved by examining the relationships between observed seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies, and low-flow indices. Secondly, the possible impact of climate change on the (joint) occurrence of these low-flow generating meteorological conditions is addressed. This is based on the outcomes of recently reported RCM climate simulations for Europe given a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. The observed record (1911-2003) hints at the importance of multi-seasonal droughts in the generation of critical low-flows of the river Meuse. The RCM simulations point to a future with wetter winters and drier summers in Northwest Europe. No increase in the likelihood of multi-seasonal droughts is simulated. However, the RCM scenario runs produce multi-seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies that are out of the range of the observed record for the period 1911-2003. The impact of climate change on low-flows has also been simulated with a hydrological model. This simulation indicates that climate change will lead to a decrease in the average discharge of the Meuse during the low-flow season. However, the model has difficulties to simulate critical low-flow conditions of the Meuse

Development of flood management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in the context of integrated river management

Water management of the rivers Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best water management strategy? This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. Within the framework of IRMA-SPONGE a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling was combined with socio-cultural theory. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view on the future, together with the according water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, both where these match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies.Irma-Spong

Monitoring trends in urban growth and surveying city quarters in the city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso using SPOT-XS

City planning agencies in developing countries lack important information on the generally rapid urban development which is taking place. Remote Sensing is a promising technique which provides that much needed information. A time series of four SPOT-XS images of Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso is analyzed to assess the usefulness of SPOT imagery for urban planning, and to determine the growth of Ouagadougou between 1986 and 1997. Another research objective is to examine the possibilities which SPOT images offer for the socio-economic classification of city sections. Both traditional image classification methods and a new contextual approach are applied. The latter approach aims at identifying structural patterns within the city boundaries which can be used as indicators for district function and status. Aerial photos and field surveys are utilized as ground reference data. The conclusions are that SPOT images are useful in surveying urban expansion over time but that it is difficult to identify the socio-economic function of city districts. The 20 x 20 m spatial resolution is not sufficient to bring out some of the subtle pattern differences between the city quarters. The contextual approach yielded some promising results by separating squatter areas from others but it was not capable of differentiating pre-colonial parts and old periphery sections. High resolution images of the recently launched Ikonos satellite with a pixel size of 4 x 4 m may provide a better spatial resolution for the contextual approach

A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what-if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water and the social system. Moreover, the two systems interact: society responds to events and the state of the water system changes in response to management. In this paper we discuss a transdisciplinary approach. Key elements in the concept are (1) the model of pressure, state, impact and response, (2) the Perspectives method to consider uncertainties of social and natural systems and (3) the evaluation of the system using transient scenarios in which we consider time series of trends, events and interaction between the water system and society. The effect analysis is executed with an integrated assessment meta-model based on simple cause–effect relations and response curve

Linking external components to a spatio-temporal modelling framework: Coupling MODFLOW and PCRaster

An important step in the procedure of building an environmental model is the transformation of a conceptual model into a numerical simulation. To simplify model construction a framework is required that relieves the model developer from software engineering concerns. In addition, as the demand for a holistic understanding of environmental systems increases, access to external model components is necessary in order to construct integrated models. We present a modelling framework that provides two- and three-dimensional building blocks for construction of spatio-temporal models. Two different modelling languages available in the framework, the first tailored and the second an enhanced Python scripting language, allow the development and modification of models. We explain for both languages the interfaces allowing to link specialised model components and thus extending the functionality of the framework. We demonstrate the coupling of external components in order to create multicomponent models by the development of the link to the groundwater model MODFLOW and provide results of an integrated catchment model. The approach described is appropriate for constructing integrated models that include a coupling of a small number of components