Prognostic significance of non-HPV16 genotypes in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Recent studies have found that cases with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) positive for HPV16 genotype have better overall survival compared with cases positive for other HPV genotypes. We sought to further replicate these studies and determine if this relationship is modified by expression of p16 tumor suppressor protein

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Recruitment of underserved, high-risk participants to a head and neck cancer screening program.

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: Early detection is essential in head and neck cancer treatment as prognosis varies greatly with stage at diagnosis. Underserved populations often present with advanced disease, and individuals with tobacco and heavy alcohol use demonstrate a higher head and neck cancer incidence. This study aims to evaluate whether various promotional methods differentially recruited behavioral risk factor positive and/or underserved populations to our screening event. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cross-sectional study. METHODS: A hospital-based, medical student-run, free head and neck cancer screening event for 187 participants was held in April 2015. Medical campus-based, community-based, and media-based promotions were implemented to recruit participants. Event participants filled out questionnaires to determine how they were recruited, their risk-factor history, and their socioeconomic status. Prevalence of the higher-risk population across the various promotional methods was analyzed. RESULTS: Community-based promotions were significantly associated with the recruitment of participants in the underserved subgroups, namely uninsured (P = .019), unemployed (P = .006), and those with an annual household income CONCLUSIONS: Community-based promotions most efficiently recruit underserved guests to participate in a hospital-based head and neck cancer screening event as compared to media and campus-based promotions. Institutions interested in recruiting higher proportions of underserved guests to these screening events should consider focusing attention and allocation of resources to community-based promotions. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 4 Laryngoscope, 126:2699-2704, 2016

Educational Value of a Medical Student-Led Head and Neck Cancer Screening Event.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate improvement of medical student knowledge of head and neck cancer (HNC) through participation in HNC screening fairs run by medical students. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of surveys assessing medical students\u27 knowledge of HNC before and after volunteering at screening fairs. SETTING: Four screening fairs held at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine during Oral, Head and Neck Cancer Awareness Week. SUBJECTS: Medical student screening fair volunteers. METHODS: Four HNC screening fairs were organized by medical student volunteers. All students completed a preevent survey assessing baseline knowledge and participated in an otolaryngologist-led training session about HNC and the screening examination. During the screening events, students educated guests about HNC and performed physician-guided history and physical examinations. Finally, students completed identical surveys 1 week and 3 months after the event. RESULTS: Thirty-four (n = 34) students completed the preevent surveys. At baseline, 59%, 44%, and 24% named tobacco, alcohol, and human papilloma virus as risk factors, compared with 84%, 81%, and 69% on 3 month follow-up, respectively. Out of 6 analyzed questions, the median total number of correctly answered questions improved from 2 on pretest to 5 at 3 months (P \u3c .0001). CONCLUSION: Volunteer participation in a HNC screening program improves medical students\u27 knowledge of HNC risk factors and symptoms. This innovative approach to students\u27 education via participation and organization of screening events is a useful method of improving their HNC knowledge

Prognostic significance of non-HPV16 genotypes in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVES: Recent studies have found that cases with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) positive for HPV16 genotype have better overall survival compared with cases positive for other HPV genotypes. We sought to further replicate these studies and determine if this relationship is modified by expression of p16 tumor suppressor protein. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We identified 238 OPSCC cases from the Carolina Head and Neck Cancer Study (CHANCE) study, a population based case-control study. Tumors that tested positive solely for HPV16 genotype and no other genotypes with PCR were classified as HPV16-positive. Tumors positive for any other high-risk HPV genotype were classified as non-HPV16-positive. Expression of p16 in the tumor was determined with immunohistochemistry. Follow-up time was calculated from the date of diagnosis to date of death or December 31, 2013. Overall survival was compared with the Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test. Hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for smoking, alcohol use, sex, race, and age was calculated with the Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: Cases with HPV16-positive OPSCC had better overall survival than cases with non-HPV16-positive OPSCC (log-rank p-value: 0.010). When restricted to OPSCC cases positive for p16 expression, the same trend continued (log-rank p-value: 0.002). In the adjusted model, cases with non-HPV16-positive OPSCC had greater risk of death compared to cases with HPV16-positive tumors (HR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.03, 3.60). CONCLUSIONS: This finding indicates that HPV genotyping carries valuable prognostic significance in addition to p16 status and future survival studies of OPSCC should take into account differing HPV genotypes

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers