Labor Market Developments in China: A Neoclassical View

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China.labor markets, rural-urban migration, wage growth, schooling returns, Lewis turning point, China

Modernization of Agriculture and Long-Term Growth

This paper develops a two-sector model that illuminates the role played by agricultural modernization in the transition from stagnation to growth. When agriculture relies on traditional technology, industrial development reduces the relative price of industrial products, but has a limited effect on per capita income because most labor has to remain in farming. Growth is not sustainable until this relative price drops below a certain threshold, thus inducing farmers to adopt modern technology that employs industry-supplied inputs. Once agricultural modernization begins, per capita income emerges from stasis and accelerates toward modern growth. Our calibrated model is largely consistent with the set of historical data we have compiled on the English economy, accounting well for the growth experience of England encompassing the Industrial Revolution.long-term growth, transition mechanisms, relative price, agricultural modernization, structural transformation, Industrial Revolution, England

Speeding Up the Product Cycle: The Role of Host Country Reforms

We study the effects of policy reforms in the South on the decisions of intrafirm and arm's length production transfers by Northern firms. We show theoretically that relaxing ownership controls and improving contract enforcement can induce multinational companies to expand product varieties to host developing countries, and that a combination of the two reforms has an amplifying effect on product transfers. Consistent with these implications, we find that ownership liberalization and judicial quality played an important role in raising the extensive margin of processing exports in China for the period of 1997-2007. Our findings imply that institutional reforms in developing countries can effectively speed up the product cycle.product cycle, ownership structure, contract environment, export variety, processing trade, China

Rising Wages: Has China Lost Its Global Labor Advantage?

We document dramatic rising wages in China for the period 1978-2007 based on multiple sources of aggregate statistics. Although real wages increased seven-fold during the period, growth was uneven across ownership types, industries and regions. Since the late 1990s, the wages of state-owned enterprises have increased rapidly and wage disparities between skill-intensive and labor-intensive industries have widened. Comparisons of international data show that China's manufacturing wage has already converged to that of Asian emerging markets, but China still enjoys enormous labor cost advantages over its neighboring developed economies. Our analysis suggests that China's wage growth will stabilize to a moderate pace in the near future.wage growth, aggregate statistics, China, international comparison

Rationales of Mortgage Insurance Premium Structures

This paper examines the rationales for the design of mortgage insurance premium structures. The actuarially sound premium prices of several widely used structures are formally derives. Two types of cross-subsidization are identified in different structures: (1) subsidization across termination years and (2) extra-subsidization of defaulters by non-defaulters. Because these two types of subsidization exist to different degree among the structures, a borrower may self-select into certain structures to maximize (minimize) the benefits (losses) of cross-subsidies. Adverse selection arises when the borrower's characteristics cannot be completely observed by the insurer. The actuarially sound premium prices should be adjusted for such adverse selection behaviors. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate such adjustments.

Smoothing and mean-covariance estimation of functional data with a Bayesian hierarchical model

Functional data, with basic observational units being functions (e.g., curves, surfaces) varying over a continuum, are frequently encountered in various applications. While many statistical tools have been developed for functional data analysis, the issue of smoothing all functional observations simultaneously is less studied. Existing methods often focus on smoothing each individual function separately, at the risk of removing important systematic patterns common across functions. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to smooth all functional observations simultaneously and nonparametrically. In the proposed approach, we assume that the functional observations are independent Gaussian processes subject to a common level of measurement errors, enabling the borrowing of strength across all observations. Unlike most Gaussian process regression models that rely on pre-specified structures for the covariance kernel, we adopt a hierarchical framework by assuming a Gaussian process prior for the mean function and an Inverse-Wishart process prior for the covariance function. These prior assumptions induce an automatic mean-covariance estimation in the posterior inference in addition to the simultaneous smoothing of all observations. Such a hierarchical framework is flexible enough to incorporate functional data with different characteristics, including data measured on either common or uncommon grids, and data with either stationary or nonstationary covariance structures. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that, in comparison with alternative methods, the proposed Bayesian approach achieves better smoothing accuracy and comparable mean-covariance estimation results. Furthermore, it can successfully retain the systematic patterns in the functional observations that are usually neglected by the existing functional data analyses based on individual-curve smoothing.Comment: Submitted to Bayesian Analysi