Consultative Workshop on the Development and Implementation of the National Framework for Climate Services for IGAD and SADC Countries: Challenges and Opportunities

The Global Framework of Climate Services (GFCS) was developed to enhance resilience in social, economic, and environmental systems to climate variability and change at national and regional levels. Conceived as the national declinations of the GFCS, the National Framework for Weather, Water and Climate Services (NFWWCS), which is used interchangeably in this concept note with the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) was introduced at the national level to serve as the national mechanisms to bridge the gap between the climate information being developed by scientists and service providers and the practical needs of users, from global to community levels. For such a Framework to be attained at the national level, however, national stakeholders must drive the process and its design in a manner that addresses national needs and priorities in weather, water and climate service provision and use. It is expected that the framework once developed will be coordinated by national government and key national organisations to ensure that all participants can express their needs and requirements for successfully implementing climate services that serve the population of the country. The purpose of this consultative workshop was to provide a platform for various stakeholders (including WMO Permanent representatives and experts) from the ESA countries to enhance their capabilities in shaping their NFWWCS/NFCS for effective delivery of weather, water and climate services and reduce climate vulnerabilities in the sub-regions

Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June–September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985–2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.publishedVersio

Spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture over Ethiopia and its teleconnections with remote and local drivers

Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and KMeans clustering algorithm have been employed to classify the large domain into homogeneous zones. Complex maximum covariance analysis (CMCA) is applied to evaluate the covariability between SM and selected local and remote variables such as rainfall (RF), evapotranspiration (ET), and sea surface temperature (SST). Inter-comparison among SM datasets highlight that the FLDAS dataset better depicts the country’s SM spatial and temporal distribution (i.e., a correlation coefficient r=0.95 , rmsd=0.04m3m−3 with observations). Results also indicate that regions located in northeastern Ethiopia are drier irrespective of the season (JJAS, MAM, and OND) considered. In contrast, the western part of the country consistently depicted a wetter condition in all seasons. During summer (JJAS), the soil moisture variability is characterized by a strong east–west spatial contrast. The highest and lowest soil moisture values were observed across the country’s central western and eastern parts, respectively. Furthermore, analyses indicate that interannual variability of SM is dictated substantially by RF, though the impact on some regions is weaker. It is also found that ET likely drives the SM in the eastern part of Ethiopia due to a higher atmospheric moisture demand that ultimately invokes changes in surface humidity and rainfall. A composite analysis based on the extreme five wettest and driest SM years revealed a similar spatial distribution of wet SM with positive anomalies of RF across the country and ET over the southern regions. Remote SSTs are also found to have a significant influence on SM distribution. In particular, equatorial central Pacific and western Indian oceans SST anomalies are predominant factors for spatiotemporal SM variations over the country. Major global oceanic indices: Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific warm pool (PACWARMPOOL), and Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) are found to be closely associated with the SM anomalies in various parts of the country. The associationship between these remote SST anomalies and local soil moisture is via large-scale atmospheric circulations that are linked to regional factors such as precipitation and temperature anomalies.publishedVersio

Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Training Guide

Agriculture, as the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, contributes roughly 40% of GDP, more than 75% of employment, and 80% of foreign exchange earnings (FAO 2021). Ethiopian agriculture is heavily reliant on natural rainfall, with irrigation used on only about 5% of total cultivated land (USAID 2021). As a result, the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change endangers the country's agriculture development, natural resources, biodiversity conservation, and government poverty-reduction efforts. Climate change-related impacts such as food insecurity, malnutrition, poverty, biodiversity loss, and loss of livelihood are deeply intertwined and continue to be the country's primary development challenges. In 2021/2022, climate change has caused Ethiopia to suffer one of its worst droughts that has ravaged vast parts of the country. The drought has ravaged livestock and wildlife resources. Future prediction suggest that Ethiopia will continue to suffer from climate change related problems. Thus action is needed to address problem

Climate Basics, Climate Information Service, Climate Risk Management Training Guide

Climate Basics, Climate Information Service, Climate Risk Management Training Guid

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model’s local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.publishedVersio

Integrating Climate Basics, Climate Information Service, Climate Risk Management and Climate Smart Agriculture into the undergraduate agriculture Curriculum in Ethiopian Higher Education

Agriculture contributes about 40% to the country’s GDP, more than 75% to employment, and 80% to foreign exchange earnings of the Ethiopia’s economy. However, climate change poses a serious risk to the sector. On the other hand, agriculture is a major contributor (i.e., about 55%) of the country’s greenhouse gas emission. To address the strong and bidirectional interrelationships between climate change and agriculture, the agricultural sector needs to transform in a climate-smart way. Climate change education will have paramount importance for tackling the problems associated with climate change through generating climate smart technologies for the enhancement of sustainable agricultural production and biodiversity conservation. Climate Change Educations (CCE) and trainings have long been recognized by the national CCE strategy (2017-2030), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Climate Change Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (Agenda 2030) as key tools to unravel the complex and multi-sectoral challenges induced/posed by climate change. Thus, specifically, including the concepts of Climate Information Service (CIS) Climate Risk Management (CRM) and Climate smart agriculture (CSA) in the existing climate related courses is critical to build climate resilient agricultural sector in Ethiopia. Thus, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) in collaboration with Ethiopian Higher Educations initiated to integrate the concept of CIS and CSA in the agricultural program in Ethiopia. Therefore, this document, explore if there is a gap between climate related course contents and the current CIS, CRM and CSA knowledge and innovations to addresses climate related agricultural challenges in ten undergraduate agricultural curricula of Ethiopian Higher Education Institutes. Ten climate related course descriptions were content analyzed to analyze gaps related to the concepts of CIS, CRM and CSA. The study found that there were gaps between the current curriculum and the desired knowledge and innovation of CIS, CRM and CSA to addresses the current and emerging climate change challenges in the agricultural sector. These results emphasize the need for curriculum review and reform to ensure CIS, CRM and CSA knowledge and innovations equipping the university graduates with comprehensive knowledge of climate change

Results from the intercalibration of optical low light calibration sources 2011

Following the 38th Annual European Meeting on Atmospheric Studies by Optical Methods in Siuntio in Finland, an intercalibration workshop for optical low light calibration sources was held in Sodankylä, Finland. The main purpose of this workshop was to provide a comparable scale for absolute measurements of aurora and airglow. All sources brought to the intercalibration workshop were compared to the Fritz Peak reference source using the Lindau Calibration Photometer built by Wilhelm Barke and Hans Lauche in 1984. The results were compared to several earlier intercalibration workshops. It was found that most sources were fairly stable over time, with errors in the range of 5–25%. To further validate the results, two sources were also intercalibrated at UNIS, Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Preliminary analysis indicates agreement with the intercalibration in Sodankylä within about 15–25%.publishedVersio

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe