The Social Determinants of Tuberculosis: From Evidence to Action Europe PMC Funders Group Europe PMC Funders Author Manuscripts Europe PMC Funders Author Manuscripts

Abstract Growing consensus indicates that progress in tuberculosis control in the low-and middle-income world will require not only investment in strengthening tuberculosis control programs, diagnostics, and treatment but also action on the social determinants of tuberculosis. However, practical ideas for action are scarcer than is notional support for this idea. We developed a framework based on the recent World Health Organization Commission on Social Determinants of Health and on current understanding of the social determinants of tuberculosis. Interventions from outside the health sector-specifically, in social protection and urban planning-have the potential to strengthen tuberculosis control. In December 2009, at the International Union Against Tuberculosis (TB) and Lung Disease's World Conference in Cancun, Mexico, Mario Raviglione, director of the World Health Organization (WHO) Stop TB Department, made a clear commitment to "moving beyond the TB box." 1 His remarks echoed an emerging shift within the TB sector toward recognizing the importance of social and economic development policies and interventions in supporting TB control

The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1

Summary: Background: The End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intimately linked by their common targets and approaches. SDG 1 aims to end extreme poverty and expand social protection coverage by 2030. Achievement of SDG 1 is likely to affect the tuberculosis epidemic through a range of pathways. We estimate the reduction in global tuberculosis incidence that could be obtained by reaching SDG 1. Methods: We developed a conceptual framework linking key indicators of SDG 1 progress to tuberculosis incidence via well described risk factor pathways and populated it with data from the SDG data repository and the WHO tuberculosis database for 192 countries. Correlations and mediation analyses informed the strength of the association between the SDG 1 subtargets and tuberculosis incidence, resulting in a simplified framework for modelling. The simplified framework linked key indicators for SDG 1 directly to tuberculosis incidence. We applied an exponential decay model based on linear associations between SDG 1 indicators and tuberculosis incidence to estimate tuberculosis incidence in 2035. Findings: Ending extreme poverty resulted in a reduction in global incidence of tuberculosis of 33·4% (95% credible interval 15·5–44·5) by 2035 and expanding social protection coverage resulted in a reduction in incidence of 76·1% (45·2–89·9) by 2035; both pathways together resulted in a reduction in incidence of 84·3% (54·7–94·9). Interpretation: Full achievement of SDG 1 could have a substantial effect on the global burden of tuberculosis. Cross-sectoral approaches that promote poverty reduction and social protection expansion will be crucial complements to health interventions, accelerating progress towards the End TB targets. Funding: World Health Organization

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

Background: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. Methods: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. Findings: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31–62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64–82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. Interpretation: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundatio

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

Background: The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. Methods: We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016–35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. Findings: Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. Interpretation: Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation