Africa's changing agricultural development strategies: past and present paradigms as a guide to the future

In this paper, Christopher L. Delgado, of IFPRI's senior research staff, takes a critical look at the changing paradigms of agricultural development that have influenced agricultural policy in Africa since the colonial era. The review shows how current approaches to meeting Africa's agricultural challenges to the year 2020 developed. It concludes that Africans have had relatively little input into the intellectual bases of strategies affecting their rural areas, a situation that must be changed if future strategies are to be effective in dealing with Africa's problems of development.Agricultural policy Africa., Agricultural economics and policies, agricultural development,

An empirical investigation of short and long-run agricultural wage formation in Ghana

This paper investigates empirically the factors that influence real agricultural wage rates in Ghana, based on 1957 to 1991 data. The Johansen cointegration framework is used to examine long-run relationships among agricultural and urban wage rates, the domestic terms of trade between agriculture and non-agriculture, urban unemployment, capital stock in agriculture and the size of the rural population. An error correction model is then used to investigate short-run dynamic relationships among the variables. The results show that: (1) there is only one stable equilibrium relationship among agricultural wage rates and their determinants in the long-run; (2) a 1 percent change in the domestic terms of trade between agriculture and non-agriculture leads to a 0.48 percent change in the real agricultural wage rate in the short-run and a 0.83 percent change in the long run; (3) the analysis suggests a one-time and one way upwards structural shift of 3.6 percent in real agricultural wages during the 1980s.Income Ghana. ,Agriculture Economic aspects Ghana. ,

DECISIONS ON LIVESTOCK KEEPING IN THE SEMI-ARID AREAS OF LIMPOPO PROVINCE

One of the central questions facing South African agricultural and rural policy makers is whether poor rural households would take opportunities afforded to them through increased public expenditures in these areas. This study spotlights the rural livestock sub-sector in the poor semi-arid areas of the Limpopo province and investigates the factors behind the decision by households to keep livestock and also the rationale to keep given herd sizes. It tests the central hypothesis that poor households would invest in livestock when there are opportunities for them to do so in the form of infrastructure and other support services. The study finds that these poor households indeed do respond positively in cases where there are such opportunities by investing in livestock. These findings illuminate the need for deliberate investments aimed at promoting agricultural (particularly livestock) growth, and thereby creating opportunities for sustainable livelihoods in these areas.Livestock Production/Industries,

Rural economy and farm income diversification in developing countries

Farm-level diversification, the adoption of alternative income-generating activities by farm households, is rarely deemed an explicit objective by economists. Where agricultural transformation has occurred, markets function well and agriculture is a waning portion of overall national product, such as the rice growing regions of Southeast Asia, farm diversification might be a desirable outcome of pursuing a market liberalization objective, but is probably not an end in itself. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where these conditions often do not hold, development depends on pro-actively commercializing rural areas. African farmers tend to diversify their production activities widely to mitigate risk, but to only produce one or two exportable commodities. High transaction costs are common barriers to diversification into new export opportunities, especially for the poor and less well-informed, who tend to fall behind during times of rapid structural change. Identifying appropriate rural institutions to incorporate rural people into new export opportunities is a major priority for relevant policy research; contract farming and participatory cooperatives offer promise and merit further study.Alternative agriculture ,exports ,

Changing fish trade and demand patterns in developing countries and their significance for policy research

Trends for major fisheries products are evaluated for the past two decades, using aggregate annual data. Major changes have been propelled by income growth, changes in preferences and health concerns about meat in developed countries, leading to increased consumption of high-valued fisheries items such as shell and filet fish. Developing countries, especially East Asia, are rapidly increasing consumption of lower valued fishery items, and fish-culture is becoming an increasingly important source of food and exports. Developed countries accounted for 85 percent of net world fish imports in 1994, mostly at the high end of the value spectrum, from about twenty countries. In the ten years preceding 1993, the net value of fisheries exports from developing countries went from less than a third of net developing country exports of sugar, beverage crops and tropical specialty products combined, to a level exceeding that total. While real fish prices have remained relatively stable since 1970, real beef prices have declined by 300 percent, suggesting that a rally in meat prices would further accentuate the shift to fish. Current evidence suggests a 15 percent relative strengthening of fish prices to beef through 2020.Fisheries Economic aspects Developing countries. ,Fish-culture. ,Prices. ,Exports. ,

The impact of livestock and fisheries on food availability and demand in 2020

People in developed countries consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Yet, meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Growth in per capita consumption and production has occurred in developing regions such as developing Asia, where income has increased from a low level and urbanization is rapid. By 2020, according to projections by IFPRI's IMPACT model, the share of the developing countries in total world meat consumption will rise from 47 percent currently to 64 percent. The net impact on food access for the poor of the world will depend on their role as producers of meat, milk, and fish, their role as consumers, and their need for protein. The amount of cereals per capita consumed directly by rural people will decline as they diversify their diets into animal proteins, but feed use will increase greatly. Available evidence suggests that on balance poor consumers in developing countries will probably be better off.Livestock productivity Sudan. ,Fishery production. ,Food consumption Developing countries. ,Food consumption forecasting. ,

EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS OF NON-TRADABILITY OF FOOD STAPLES IN TANZANIA 1983-1998

Economic reform programs assume that major goods are tradable, such that depreciation of the real exchange rate raises the value of output compared to factor costs in domestic currency. In Tanzania, major food staples that account for most real income are non-tradables in at least one-quarter of the country. This is demonstrated and implications assessed for the constraints imposed on macroeconomic-led adjustment strategiesAgricultural and Food Policy,

Global food demand and the contribution of livestock as we enter the new millennium

People in developed countries currently consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Yet poor people everywhere clearly desire to eat more animal protein products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. Growth in per capita consumption and production has in fact occurred in regions such as developing Asia, and most particularly China. Per capita consumption of animal proteins and use of cereals as feed in Asia have both grown in the 3 to 5 percent per annum range over the past 20 years. By 2020, according to IFPRI's IMPACT model projections, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 47 percent currently to 63 percent. IMPACT projections under various technical and economic assumptions suggest that there is enough production supply response in world systems to accomplish these production increases smoothly. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of restrictions on China's ability to produce more feedgrains illustrates that in a system of linked global markets for cereals and livestock products, such restrictions are not effective at lowering Chinese livestock consumption, which is driven by global trade in manufactures, although they do lower Chinese livestock production. The resulting imbalance raises world feed costs by one-third in 2020 over anticipated levels, encourages increased livestock exports from Latin America, discourages livestock exports from the U.S., and reduces meat and cereals imports and consumption in the poorer countries of Africa and Asia.Food consumption forecasting. ,Proteins in human nutrition. ,Livestock China. ,China ,

LIVESTOCK TO 2020: THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmDemand and Price Analysis, Production Economics,

Livestock intensification and smallholders

"This essay describes the views of Philippines livestock sector stakeholders concerning the events and issues associated with the rapid rise in hog and poultry production, based on rapid reconnaissance interviews and gray literature from studies in Southern Luzon, Iloilo and Northern Mindanao, and the impressions of the authors. Changing demographic patterns, decentralized eco-governance, trade liberalization, and health and environmental policies have major impacts on further livestock intensification and on increasing scale of operations. Six factors appear to affect small farmers' decisions to intensify or raise livestock, or remain in the livestock industry. These are 1) access to financial capital; 2) technical knowledge about livestock production and their sources of information; 3) social capital expressed as trust in integrators, in the primary buyers of the livestock, and in government; 4) demographic characteristics, such as gender and age; 5) farmer perceptions of the policy environment (prices, feeds, health and environmental policies, and the local ordinances affecting the livestock sector); and 6) access to reliable markets for outputs across the year." Authors' Abstractlivestock ,small farms ,