Nonparametric regression with martingale increment errors

We consider the problem of adaptive estimation of the regression function in a framework where we replace ergodicity assumptions (such as independence or mixing) by another structural assumption on the model. Namely, we propose adaptive upper bounds for kernel estimators with data-driven bandwidth (Lepski's selection rule) in a regression model where the noise is an increment of martingale. It includes, as very particular cases, the usual i.i.d. regression and auto-regressive models. The cornerstone tool for this study is a new result for self-normalized martingales, called ``stability'', which is of independent interest. In a first part, we only use the martingale increment structure of the noise. We give an adaptive upper bound using a random rate, that involves the occupation time near the estimation point. Thanks to this approach, the theoretical study of the statistical procedure is disconnected from usual ergodicity properties like mixing. Then, in a second part, we make a link with the usual minimax theory of deterministic rates. Under a beta-mixing assumption on the covariates process, we prove that the random rate considered in the first part is equivalent, with large probability, to a deterministic rate which is the usual minimax adaptive one

Statistical inference versus mean field limit for Hawkes processes

We consider a population of $N$ individuals, of which we observe the number of actions as time evolves. For each couple of individuals $(i,j)$, $j$ may or not influence $i$, which we model by i.i.d. Bernoulli$(p)$-random variables, for some unknown parameter $p\in (0,1]$. Each individual acts autonomously at some unknown rate $\mu>0$ and acts by mimetism at some rate depending on the number of recent actions of the individuals which influence him, the age of these actions being taken into account through an unknown function $\varphi$ (roughly, decreasing and with fast decay). The goal of this paper is to estimate $p$, which is the main charateristic of the graph of interactions, in the asymptotic $N\to\infty$, $t\to\infty$. The main issue is that the mean field limit (as $N \to \infty$) of this model is unidentifiable, in that it only depends on the parameters $\mu$ and $p\varphi$. Fortunately, this mean field limit is not valid for large times. We distinguish the subcritical case, where, roughly, the mean number $m_t$ of actions per individual increases linearly and the supercritical case, where $m_t$ increases exponentially. Although the nuisance parameter $\varphi$ is non-parametric, we are able, in both cases, to estimate $p$ without estimating $\varphi$ in a nonparametric way, with a precision of order $N^{-1/2}+N^{1/2}m_t^{-1}$, up to some arbitrarily small loss. We explain, using a Gaussian toy model, the reason why this rate of convergence might be (almost) optimal

On the false discovery proportion convergence under Gaussian equi-correlation

We study the convergence of the false discovery proportion (FDP) of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure in the Gaussian equi-correlated model, when the correlation $\rho_m$ converges to zero as the hypothesis number $m$ grows to infinity. By contrast with the standard convergence rate $m^{1/2}$ holding under independence, this study shows that the FDP converges to the false discovery rate (FDR) at rate $\{\min(m,1/\rho_m)\}^{1/2}$ in this equi-correlated model

Testing the finiteness of the support of a distribution: a statistical look at Tsirelson's equation

We consider the following statistical problem: based on an i.i.d.sample of size n of integer valued random variables with common law m, is it possible to test whether or not the support of m is finite as n goes to infinity? This question is in particular connected to a simple case of Tsirelson's equation, for which it is natural to distinguish between two main configurations, the first one leading only to laws with finite support, and the second one including laws with infinite support. We show that it is in fact not possible to discriminate between the two situations, even using a very weak notion of statistical test

On Monte-Carlo tree search for deterministic games with alternate moves and complete information

We consider a deterministic game with alternate moves and complete information, of which the issue is always the victory of one of the two opponents. We assume that this game is the realization of a random model enjoying some independence properties. We consider algorithms in the spirit of Monte-Carlo Tree Search, to estimate at best the minimax value of a given position: it consists in simulating, successively, $n$ well-chosen matches, starting from this position. We build an algorithm, which is optimal, step by step, in some sense: once the $n$ first matches are simulated, the algorithm decides from the statistics furnished by the $n$ first matches (and the a priori we have on the game) how to simulate the $(n+1)$-th match in such a way that the increase of information concerning the minimax value of the position under study is maximal. This algorithm is remarkably quick. We prove that our step by step optimal algorithm is not globally optimal and that it always converges in a finite number of steps, even if the a priori we have on the game is completely irrelevant. We finally test our algorithm, against MCTS, on Pearl's game and, with a very simple and universal a priori, on the games Connect Four and some variants. The numerical results are rather disappointing. We however exhibit some situations in which our algorithm seems efficient

Asymptotic lower bounds in estimating jumps

We study the problem of the efficient estimation of the jumps for stochastic processes. We assume that the stochastic jump process $(X_t)_{t\in[0,1]}$ is observed discretely, with a sampling step of size $1/n$. In the spirit of Hajek's convolution theorem, we show some lower bounds for the estimation error of the sequence of the jumps $(\Delta X_{T_k})_k$. As an intermediate result, we prove a LAMN property, with rate $\sqrt{n}$, when the marks of the underlying jump component are deterministic. We deduce then a convolution theorem, with an explicit asymptotic minimal variance, in the case where the marks of the jump component are random. To prove that this lower bound is optimal, we show that a threshold estimator of the sequence of jumps $(\Delta X_{T_k})_k$ based on the discrete observations, reaches the minimal variance of the previous convolution theorem.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ515 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm