Predictors of survival in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and other human transmissible spongiform encephalopathies.

A collaborative study of human transmissible spongiform encephalopathies has been carried out from 1993 to 2000 and includes data from 10 national registries, the majority in Western Europe. In this study, we present analyses of predictors of survival in sporadic (n = 2304), iatrogenic (n = 106) and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (n = 86) and in cases associated with mutations of the prion protein gene (n = 278), including Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker syndrome (n = 24) and fatal familial insomnia (n = 41). Overall survival for each disease type was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method and the multivariate analyses by the Cox proportional hazards model. In sporadic disease, longer survival was correlated with younger age at onset of illness, female gender, codon 129 heterozygosity, presence of CSF 14-3-3 protein and type 2a prion protein type. The ability to predict survival based on patient covariates is important for diagnosis and counselling, and the characterization of the survival distributions, in the absence of therapy, will be an important starting point for the assessment of potential therapeutic agents in the future

Mortality from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and related disorders in Europe, Australia, and Canada.

BACKGROUND: An international study of the epidemiologic characteristics of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) was established in 1993 and included national registries in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom. In 1997, the study was extended to Australia, Austria, Canada, Spain, and Switzerland. METHODS: Data were pooled from all participating countries for the years 1993 to 2002 and included deaths from definite or probable CJD of all etiologic subtypes. RESULTS: Four thousand four hundred forty-one cases were available for analysis and included 3,720 cases of sporadic CJD, 455 genetic cases, 138 iatrogenic cases, and 128 variant cases. The overall annual mortality rate between 1999 and 2002 was 1.67 per million for all cases and 1.39 per million for sporadic CJD. Mortality rates were similar in all countries. There was heterogeneity in the distribution of cases by etiologic subtype with an excess of genetic cases in Italy and Slovakia, of iatrogenic cases in France and the UK, and of variant CJD in the UK. CONCLUSIONS: This study has established overall epidemiologic characteristics for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) of all types in a multinational population-based study. Intercountry comparisons did not suggest any relative change in the characteristics of sporadic CJD in the United Kingdom, and the evidence in this study does not suggest the occurrence of a novel form of human bovine spongiform encephalopathy infection other than variant CJD. However, this remains a possibility, and countries currently unaffected by variant CJD may yet have cases