Understanding Humanitarian Supply Chain Logistics with Systems Dynamics Modeling

Purpose – We explore the short-term humanitarian response to a natural disaster that prompts a rapid influx of relief supplies to the area affected by the disaster, aiming to understand the dynamics of systemic processes that apply to humanitarian supply chain logistics. Design/methodology/approach – We use system dynamics to simulate the disaster relief supply chain elements of humanitarian response. System dynamics is a well-established simulation method for analyzing complex social systems that include feedback. We used it because the timing and coordination of, and feedback loops among, events in humanitarian response incorporate a delay structure that can be modeled effectively using system dynamics. Findings – Of all the stocks in our model of the Humanitarian Stock Management System, the most important was the Cumulative Food distributed to disaster victims. In all of our simulation runs, victims eventually got all the food they needed, but at varying speeds (fast in the base run, slow in runs where repair of infrastructure was slow). However, the most problematic stock was the amount of Food in the Central Warehouse. In almost all the runs, that stock contained an excess of food (which is very common in such situations), resulting in waste and inefficiency. This problem was worst when the agency panicked at the outset and doubled its estimate of needed food, and when, as is often true, the agency received too many in-kind donations of food. The most interesting finding was that “managing” donations led to the best overall performance--low waste, good relief for victims. Practical implications – We offer a number of policy recommendations, including the need to avoid early bias, to repair infrastructure as quickly as possible, to develop better methods for keeping track of inventories and supplies on the way, and striking a balance between encouraging and dampening donations. Originality/value – This study focuses on understanding the short-term dynamics of the logistics of a humanitarian response, using a system dynamics approach. There have been only two other studies applying system dynamics to humanitarian assistance. One was operational and focused on long-term dynamics (often called “development,” as opposed to “response”) and the other was abstract and focused on those same longer-term dynamics. While these studies have produced meaningful insight, our study is unique in that we have applied an operational approach to a short, or “crisis response,” time horizon

Disaster Management: An Ethical Review and Approach

There has been a great deal of research devoted to the general topic of disaster response. Not surprisingly, the bulk of this research has been conducted by researchers in the fields of emergency medicine, emergency response, and public policy. While a great deal of useful clinical and applied knowledge has been obtained from these studies, this paper is focused more narrowly on the ethics of disaster response. We suggest that principles of business ethics are similar in nature to those that should be used in response to the occurrence of disasters and propose a model of ethics that transcends business and professional ethics so that any disaster manager could rely upon these principles to make good, defensible moral judgments in the management of a disaster

Mass-casualty Triage: Distribution of victims to multiple hospitals using the SAVE model

During a mass casualty incident (MCI), to which one of several area hospitals should each victim be sent? These decisions depend on resource availability (both transport and care) and the survival probabilities of patients. This paper focuses on the critical time period immediately following the onset of an MCI and is concerned with how to effectively evacuate victims to the different area hospitals in order to provide the greatest good to the greatest number of patients while not overwhelming any single hospital. This resource-constrained triage problem is formulated as a mixed-integer program, which we call the Severity-Adjusted Victim Evacuation (SAVE) model. It is compared with a model in the extant literature and also against several current policies commonly used by the so-called incident commander. The experiments indicate that the SAVE model provides a marked improvement over the commonly used ad-hoc policies and an existing model. Two possible implementation strategies are discussed along with managerial conclusions

Hospital Evacuation in Disasters: Uncovering the Systemic Leverage Using System Dynamics

Our aim is to understand systemic processes that apply to hospital evacuation and patient relocation during and after a disaster. We use system dynamics to simulate hospital evacuation in such an event. System dynamics is a well-established simulation method for analysing complex social systems that include feedback. We found that the key to efficient hospital evacuation lies less in management of patient transportation and more in the ability of the receiving hospital to manage the influx of patients. The decision makers at the hospital receiving patients are most subject to feedback effects and therefore hold the most leverage in determining the rate of the evacuation. On the basis of simulation results, we develop recommendations for hospital evacuation and patient relocation. Planners, policy makers and practitioners can use the recommendations to facilitate efficient hospital evacuations

Data Mining: An Ethical Baseline for Online Privacy Policies

The purpose of this paper is to advocate for and provide guidance for the development of a code of ethical conduct surrounding online privacy policies, including those concerning data mining. The hope is that this research generates thoughtful discussion on the issue of how to make data mining more effective for the business stakeholder while at the same time making it a process done in an ethical way that remains effective for the consumer. The recognition of the privacy rights of data mining subjects is paramount within this discussion