Leaf Area and Structural Changes after Thinning in Even-Aged Picea rubens and Abies balsamea Stands in Maine, USA

We tested the hypothesis that changes in leaf area index (LAI m2 m−2) and mean stand diameter following thinning are due to thinning type and residual density. The ratios of pre- to postthinning diameter and LAI were used to assess structural changes between replicated crown, dominant, and low thinning treatments to 33% and 50% residual density in even-aged Picea rubens and Abies balsamea stands with and without a precommercial thinning history in Maine, USA. Diameter ratios varied predictably by thinning type: low thinnings were 0.7 but 1.0 . LAI change was affected by type and intensity of thinning. On average, 33% density reduction removed 50% of LAI. Overall reduction of LAI was generally greatest in dominant thinnings (54%), intermediate in crown thinnings (46%), and lowest in low thinnings (35%). Upon closer examination by crown classes, the postthinning distribution of LAI between upper and lower crown classes varied by thinning history, thinning method, and amount of density reduction

Long-Term Landscape Changes in a Subalpine Spruce-Fir forest in Central Utah, USA

Background: In Western North America, increasing wildfire and outbreaks of native bark beetles have been mediated by warming climate conditions. Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region. This study uses retrospective vegetation and fire history data to reconstruct the drivers of past disturbance and environmental change. Understanding the relationship among climate, antecedent disturbances, and the legacy effects of settlement-era logging can help identify the patterns and processes that create landscapes susceptible to bark beetle epidemics. Methods: Our analysis uses data from lake sediment cores, stand inventories, and historical records. Sediment cores were dated with radiometric techniques (14C and210Pb/137Cs) and subsampled for pollen and charcoal to maximize the temporal resolution during the historical period (1800 CE to present) and to provide environmental baseline data (last 10,500 years). Pollen data for spruce were calibrated to carbon biomass (C t/ha) using standard allometric equations and a transfer function. Charcoal samples were analyzed with statistical models to facilitate peak detection and determine fire recurrence intervals. Results: The Wasatch Plateau has been dominated by Engelmann spruce forests for the last ~10,500 years, with subalpine fir becoming more prominent since 6000 years ago. This landscape has experienced a dynamic fire regime, where burning events are more frequent and of higher magnitude during the last 3000 years. Two important disturbances have impacted Engelmann spruce in the historical period: 1) high-grade logging during the late 19th century; and (2) a high severity spruce beetle outbreak in the late 20th century that killed \u3e90 % of mature spruce (\u3e10 cm dbh). Conclusions: Our study shows that spruce-dominated forests in this region are resilient to a range of climate and disturbance regimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that 19th century logging promoted a legacy of simplified stand structure and composition such that, when climate became favorable for accelerated beetle population growth, the result was a landscape-scale spruce beetle outbreak. The lasting impacts of settlement-era landscape history from the Wasatch Plateau, UT may be relevant for other areas of western North America and Europe where sufficient host carrying capacity is important in managing for resistance and resilience to outbreaks

Gridded Snow Water Equivalent Reconstruction for Utah Using Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Data

Snowpack observations in the Intermountain West are sparse and short, making them difficult for use in depicting past variability and extremes. This study presents a reconstruction of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the period of 1850–1989 using increment cores collected by the U.S. Forest Service, Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA). In the state of Utah, SWE was reconstructed for 38 snow course locations using a combination of standardized tree-ring indices derived from both FIA increment cores and publicly available tree-ring chronologies. These individual reconstructions were then interpolated to a 4-km grid using an objective analysis with elevation correction to create an SWE product. The results showed a significant correlation with observed SWE as well as good correspondence to regional tree-ring-based drought reconstructions. Diagnostic analysis showed statewide coherent climate variability on inter-annual and inter-decadal time-scales, with added geographical details that would not be possible using courser pre-instrumental proxy datasets. This SWE reconstruction provides water resource managers and forecasters with better spatial resolution to examine past variability in snowpack, which will be important as future hydroclimatic variability is amplified by climate change

Building Resistance and Resilience: Regeneration Should Not be Left to Chance

Contemporary forest planning has tasked managers with developing goals associated with resistance and resilience. In practice, silviculturists use forest structure and tree species composition to characterize goals and desired future conditions, write prescriptions, and monitor outcomes associated with resistance and resilience. Although rarely discussed in the exploding literature relating to forest resistance and resilience, silvicultural regeneration methods are important and underutilized tools to meet these goals. We propose alternative silvicultural systems for building resistance and resilience to two common large-scale bark beetle disturbance agents in the Intermountain West, United States: mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby). Shelterwood, and shelterwood-with-reserves, silvicultural systems provide the desirable facilitative characteristics of a mature overstory on maintaining advance reproduction and the establishment of new cohorts of desirable tree species. These also allow the timely regeneration of large treatment areas necessary to rapidly promote desired future conditions in the face of inevitable disturbance. When implemented proactively, regeneration treatments allow silviculturists to take advantage of currently existing vegetation for the creation of age class and tree species diversity. In general, these examples illustrate the need for proactive planning for regeneration in response to any disturbance where desired future conditions include particular species. Furthermore, we argue that timely silvicultural interventions that focus on regenerating trees may be a key factor in achieving goals relating to resilience to specific disturbance types. Waiting until after the disturbance has occurred could result in the lost opportunity to establish desired species composition or stand structure—and may well result in a considerable restoration challenge

Validation Results: Utah and Western Sierra Variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is the most widely available and used growth and yield model in the US. It is used in both forest management and research and the basic model framework is integrated with post-processors which can be used for many useful analyses (e.g., fire effects, bark beetle susceptibility, etc.). Recent identification of the nomenclature and a basic validation procedure has resulted in a nation-wide effort to objectively test individual FVS variants following a specific protocol (FVS Validation Subcommittee 2009). Despite the huge range of possibilities for model use, and some independent testing of various model components, (e.g., Pokharel and Froese 2009; Vacchiano et al. 2008) and variants (Lacerte et al. 2004) a comprehensive evaluation of the basic model output has yet to be done. In this project, deliverables identified as necessary to inform an appropriate model testing procedure included: (1) data set description; (2) model verification; (3) model validation; and (4) model sensitivity analysis

Investigating Forest Inventory and Analysis-Collected Tree-Ring Data from Utah as a Proxy for Historical Climate

Increment cores collected as part of the periodic inventory in the Intermountain West were examined for their potential to represent growth and be a proxy for climate (precipitation) over a large region (Utah). Standardized and crossdated time-series created from pinyon pine (n=249) and Douglas-fir (n=274) increment cores displayed spatiotemporal patterns in growth differences both between species and by region within Utah. However, the between-species interrelationship of growth was strong over much of the state and indicated both species respond similarly to climate variations. Indeed, pinyon pine and Douglas-fir exhibited a significant and spatially coherent response to instrumental precipitation data. Previous water year (5-month lag) exhibited the strongest relationship to tree-ring increment for both species. Results suggest increment cores collected by Forest Inventory and Analysis are excellent proxies for historical precipitation

Using Inventory-based Tree-ring Data as a Proxy for Historical Climate: Investigating the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and teleconnections.

In 2009, the Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the U.S. Forest Service started to archive approximatel y 11 000 increment cores collected in the Interior West states during the periodic inventories of the 1980s and 1990s. The two primary goals for use of the data were to provide a plot-linked database of radial growth to be used for growth model development and other biometric analyses, and to develop a gridded dendroecological database that could be used to analyze regional patterns of climate, disturbance, and other ecosystem-scale processes. Early analysis related to the latter goal showed that the fi nely gridded data could be used to map past climatic patterns with more detail than is possible using traditional chronologies. FIA-based Douglas-fi r and pinyon pine chronologies showed high temporal coherence with previously published tree-ring chronologies, and the spatial and temporal coherence between the FIA data and water year precipitation was strong. FIA data also captured the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dipole and revealed considerable latitudinal fl uctuation over the past three centuries. Finally, the FIA data confi rmed the coupling between wet/dry cycles and Pacifi c decadal variability known to exist for the Intermountain West. These results highlight the further potential for high-spatial-resolution climate proxy data sets for the western United States

Landscape-Scale Drivers of Resistance and Resilience to Bark Beetles: A Conceptual Susceptibility Model

Bark beetle (Dendroctonus spp.) outbreaks in the middle latitudes of western North America cause large amounts of tree mortality, outstripping wildfire by an order of magnitude. While temperatures play an important, and direct role in the population dynamics of ectothermic bark beetles, an equally important influence is the nature of the host substrate—the structure and composition of forested communities. For many of the dominant tree species in the western United States, “hazard” indices have been developed for specific bark beetles, which generally include three key variables—host tree size, absolute or relative density of the stand, and percentage of host composition. We provide a conceptual model to apply these three variables across forest ecosystems and bark beetles that shifts the thinking from a species–specific model to a model which focuses on the underlying ecological factors related to bark beetle outbreak susceptibility. We explored the use of our model across multiple scales using the Forest Inventory and Analysis database: Interior West, USA; the states of Colorado and Arizona; and specific national forests within Arizona that are implementing a large-scale restoration effort. We demonstrated that across the Interior West and Colorado, the vast majority of forests have moderate to high susceptibility to bark beetles. Our conceptual model maintains the simplicity of previous “hazard” models but acknowledges the need to consider scale when managing bark beetles. It also shifts the management approach from resistance thinking to the development of “associational resilience”, where the focus is not on any one individual stand or area but the longer-term perspective of forest persistence across the landscape

Climatization-Negligent Attribution of Great Salt Lake Desiccation: A Comment on Meng (2019)

A recent article reviewed data on Great Salt Lake (Utah) and concluded falsely that climate changes, especially local warming and extreme precipitation events, are primarily responsible for lake elevation changes. Indeed climatically influenced variation of net inflows contribute to huge swings in the elevation of Great Salt Lake (GSL) and other endorheic lakes. Although droughts and wet cycles have caused lake elevation changes of over 4.5 m, they have not caused a significant long-term change in the GSL stage. This recent article also suggests that a 1.4 °C rise in air temperature and concomitant increase in the lake\u27s evaporative loss is an important reason for the lake\u27s decline. However, we calculate that a 1.4 °C rise may have caused only a 0.1mdecrease in lake level. However, since 1847, the lake has declined 3.6 m and the lake area has decreased by ≈50%, despite no significant change in precipitation (p = 0.52) and a slight increase, albeit insignificant, in river flows above irrigation diversions (p = 0.085). In contrast, persistent water extraction for agriculture and other uses beginning in 1847 now decrease water flows below diversions by 39%. Estimates of consumptive water use primarily for irrigated agriculture in the GSL watershed suggest that approximately 85% (2500 km2) of the reduced lake area can be attributed to human water consumption. The recent article\u27s failure to calculate a water budget for the lake that included extensive water withdrawals misled the author to focus instead on climate change as a causal factor for the decline. Stable stream flows in GSL\u27s headwaters, inadequate temperature increase to explain the extent of its observed desiccation, stable long-term precipitation, and the magnitude of increased water consumption from GSL together demonstrate conclusively that climatic factors are secondary to human alterations to GSL and its watershed. Climatization, in which primarily non-climatic processes are falsely attributed to climatic factors, is a threat to the credibility of hydrological science. Despite a recent suggestion to the contrary, pressure to support Earth\u27s rising human population-in the form of increasing consumption of water in water-limited regions, primarily to support irrigated agriculture-remains the leading driver of desiccation of inland waters within Earth\u27s water-limited regions