Monetary Policy Under Alterative Asset Market Structures: the Case of a Small Open Economy

Can the structure of asset markets change the way monetary policy should be conducted? Following a linear-quadratic approach, the present paper addresses this question in a New Keynesian small open economy framework. Our results reveal that the configuration of asset markets significantly affects optimal monetary policy and the performance of standard policy rules. In particular, when comparing complete and incomplete markets, the ranking of policy rules is entirely reversed, and so are the policy prescriptions regarding the optimal level of exchange rate volatility.Welfare, Optimal Monetary Policy, Asset Markets, Small Open Economy

Policy design in a model with swings in risk appetite

This paper studies the policy implications of habits and cyclical changes in agents' appetite for risk-taking. To do so, it analyses the non-linear solution of a New Keynesian (NK) model, in which slow-moving habits help match the cyclical properties of risk-premia. Our findings suggest that the presence of habits and swings in risk appetite can materially affect policy prescriptions. As in Ljungqvist and Uhlig (2000), a counter-cyclical fiscal instrument can eliminate habit-related externalities. Alternatively, monetary policy can partially curb the associated overconsumption by responding to risk premia. Specifically, periods in which risk premia are elevated (compressed) merit a looser (tighter) policy stance. However, the associated welfare gains appear quantitatively small

Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving and Monetary Policy

This paper analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite affect households' propensity to save. It uses a New-Keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justifies an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent, adverse disturbances. Equally, policy should be more restrictive - i.e. `lean against the wind' - following positive shocks. Since the size of these `risk-adjustments' is increasing in the degree of macroeconomic volatility, ignoring this channel could lead to larger policy errors in turbulent times - with good luck translating into good policy.precautionary saving, monetary policy, cyclical risk aversion, macro-finance, non-linearities

On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy

This paper analyses the international dimension of fiscal policy using a small open economy framework in which the government finances its spending by levying distortionary taxation and issuing non-state-contingent debt. The main finding of the paper is that, once the open economy aspect of the policy problem is considered, it is not optimal to smooth taxes following idiosyncratic shocks. Even when prices are flexible and inflation can costlessly act as a shock absorber to restore fiscal equilibrium, the presence of a terms of trade externality lead to movements in the tax rate. Also in contrast with the closed economy, the introduction of sticky prices can reduce the optimal volatility of taxes.optimal policy, fiscal policy, small open economy

Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy

This paper characterizes welfare in a small open economy and derives the correspondingoptimal monetary policy rule. It shows that the utility-based loss function for a small openeconomy is a quadratic expression in domestic inflation, output gap and real exchange rate. Incontrast to previous works, this paper demonstrates that welfare in a small open economy,completely integrated with the rest of the world, is affected by exchange rate variability.Consequently, the optimal policy in a small open economy is not isomorphic to a closedeconomy and does not prescribe a pure floating exchange rate regime. Domestic inflationtargeting is optimal only under a particular parameterization, where the unique relevantdistortion in the economy is price stickiness. Under a general specification for preferencesand in the presence of inefficient steady state output, exchange rate targeting arises as part ofthe optimal monetary plan.Welfare, Optimal Monetary Policy, Small Open Economy

Coordinating monetary and macroprudential policies

The financial crisis has prompted macroeconomists to think of new policy instruments that could help ensure financial stability. Policymakers are interested in understanding how these should be set in conjunction with monetary policy. We contribute to this debate by analyzing how monetary and macroprudential policy should be conducted to reduce the costs of macroeconomic fluctuations. We do so in a model in which such costs are driven by nominal rigidities and credit constraints. We find that, if faced with cost-push shocks, policy authorities should cooperate and commit to a given course of action. In a world in which monetary and macroprudential tools are set independently and under discretion, our findings suggest that assigning conservative mandates (á la Rogoff [1985]) and having one of the authorities act as a leader can mitigate coordination problems. At the same time, choosing monetary and macroprudential tools that work in a similar fashion can increase such problems

Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Currency Positions

Using an endogenous portfolio choice model, this paper examines how different monetary policy regimes can lead to different foreign currency positions by changing the cyclical properties of the nominal exchange rate. We find that strict inflation targeting regimes are associated with a short position in foreign currency, while the opposite is true for noninflation targeting regimes. We also explore how these different external positions affect the international transmission of monetary shocks through the valuation channel. When central banks follow inflation targeting Taylor-type rules, valuation effects of monetary expansions are beggar-thy-self, but they are beggar-thy-neighbour in a money growth targeting regime (or when monetary policy puts weight on output stabilization).Portfolio choice, international transmission of shocks, monetary policy

Capital controls: A normative analysis

Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be - and often are - used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We develop a welfare-based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how) countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that restricting international capital flows through the use of these taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The reason is because, while consumption risk-pooling is important, individual countries also care about domestic output fluctuations. Moreover, the results show that countries decide to restrict the international flow of capital exactly when this flow is crucial to ensure cross-border risk sharing. Our findings point to the possibility of costly capital control wars and thus to significant gains from international policy coordination

Asset pricing implications for a New Keynesian model

To match the stylised facts of goods and labour markets, the canonical New Keynesian model augments the optimising neoclassical growth model with nominal and real rigidities. We ask what the implications of this type of model are for asset prices. Using a second-order numerical solution to the model, we examine bond and equity returns, the equity risk premium, and the behaviour of the real and nominal term structure. We catalogue the factors that are most important for determining the size of risk premia and the slope and level of the yeild curve. In a world of technology shocks only, increasing the degree of real rigidities raises risk premia and increasing nominal rigidities reduces risk premia. In a world of monetary policy shocks only, both real and nominal rigidities raise risk premia. The results indicate that the iimplications of the New Keynesian nodel for average asset returns depend critically on the characterisation of shocks hitting the model economyAsset prices, New Keynesian, Rigidities

Welfare and macroeconomic policy in small open economies.

This thesis focuses on the analysis of welfare and macroeconomic policy in small open economies. The international dimension of monetary and fiscal policy is examined in a micro-founded New-Keynesian framework. The small open economy is characterized as a limiting case of a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model featuring imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Under this specification, Chapter 1 formulates a utility-based loss function for a small open economy completely integrated with the rest of the world. The study investigates the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy and derives the optimal monetary policy rule. In this Chapter, the dynamics of the trade balance are shown to be crucial in determining the appropriate exchange rate regime. Chapter 2 analyses optimal monetary policy under alternative asset market structures; more specifically, it compares and contrasts the cases of incomplete asset markets, financial autarky and complete asset markets. Furthermore, the performance of standard monetary policy rules is evaluated under these different scenarios. The results show that the degree of substitutability between domestic and foreign goods and the level of risk sharing are important factors in determining the performance of policy rules. Finally, Chapter 3 incorporates fiscal policy in the general framework. This Chapter introduces distortionary taxation into the model and characterizes the optimal fiscal policy. In addition, a general monetary and fiscal policy problem is formulated in the presence of nominal rigidities. The Chapter demonstrates that the stabilization problem in an open economy is more complex than in a closed economy, even under flexible prices. Apart from the incentive to avoid the distortions implied by taxation, in a small open economy there is also an incentive to strategically affect the real exchange rate. That is, proportional taxation creates a distortion in the economy, but also introduces a policy instrument that can influence the terms of trade and the overall level of production and consumption in a welfare-improving manner