Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among asset returns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and international point of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly related to inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest rates predicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign term structures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflation and exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financial variables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implications of the results are provided.Transmission, business cycles, international stock returns, financial markets

Bank competition and financial stability

Under the traditional"competition-fragility"view, more bank competition erodes market power, decreases profit margins, and results in reduced franchise value that encourages bank risk taking. Under the alternative"competition-stability"view, more market power in the loan market may result in greater bank risk as the higher interest rates charged to loan customers make it more difficult to repay loans and exacerbate moral hazard and adverse selection problems. But even if market power in the loan market results in riskier loan portfolios, the overall risks of banks need not increase if banks protect their franchise values by increasing their equity capital or engaging in other risk-mitigating techniques. The authors test these theories by regressing measures of loan risk, bank risk, and bank equity capital on several measures of market power, as well as indicators of the business environment, using data for 8,235 banks in 23 developed nations. The results suggest that - consistent with the traditional"competition-fragility"view - banks with a greater degree of market power also have less overall risk exposure. The data also provide some support for one element of the"competition-stability"view - that market power increases loan portfolio risk. The authors show that this risk may be offset in part by higher equity capital ratios.Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Access to Finance,,Markets and Market Access

Large-signal stability conditions for semi-quasi-Z-source inverters: switched and averaged models

The recently introduced semi-quasi-Z-source in- verter can be interpreted as a DC-DC converter whose input- output voltage gain may take any value between minus infinity and 1 depending on the applied duty cycle. In order to generate a sinusoidal voltage waveform at the output of this converter, a time-varying duty cycle needs to be applied. Application of a time-varying duty cycle that produces large-signal behavior requires careful consideration of stability issues. This paper provides stability results for both the large-signal averaged and the switched models of the semi-quasi-Z-source inverter operating in continuous conduction mode. We show that if the load is linear and purely resistive then the boundedness and ultimate boundedness of the state trajectories is guaranteed provided some reasonable operation conditions are ensured. These conditions amount to keeping the duty cycle away from the extreme values 0 or 1 (averaged and switched models), and limiting the maximum PWM switching period (switched model). The results obtained can be used to give theoretical justification to the inverter operation strategy recently proposed by Cao et al. in [1].Comment: Submitted to the IEEE Conf. on Decision and Control, Florence, Italy, 201

The threat of systemic risk in banking: evidence for Europe

This paper attempts to answer the question whether the threat of systemic risk in banking exists only on a national or on a European level. Following De Nicolo and Kwast (2001), mean rolling-window correlations between bank stock returns are used as a measure for interdependencies among European banks, and hence for the systemic risk potential in Europe. National influences on stock returns are eliminated by estimating a return generating model. There is some evidence that interdependencies among European banks have increased over the past 15 years and that the potential of systemic risk has shifted from a national level to a European level. --systemic risk,banking,contagion,Europe

The threat of systemic risk in banking: Evidence for Europe

This paper attempts to answer the question whether the threat of systemic risk in banking exists only on a national or on a European level. Following De Nicolo and Kwast (2001), mean rolling-window correlations between bank stock returns are used as a measure for interdependencies among European banks, and hence for the systemic risk potential in Europe. National influences on stock returns are eliminated by estimating a return-generating model. There is some evidence that interdependencies among European banks have increased over the past 15 years and that the potential of systemic risk has shifted from a national level to a European level. --systemic risk,banking,contagion,Europe

Real effects of bank capital regulations: global evidence

We examine the effect of the full set of bank capital regulations (capital stringency) on loan growth, using bank-level data for a maximum of 125 countries over the period 1998-2011. Contrary to standard theoretical considerations, we find that overall capital stringency only has a weak negative effect on loan growth. In fact, this effect is completely offset if banks hold moderately high levels of capital. Interestingly, the components of capital stringency that have the strongest negative effect on loan growth are those related to the prevention of banks to use as capital borrowed funds and assets other than cash or government securities. In contrast, compliance with Basel guidelines in using Basel- and credit-risk weights has a much less potent effect on loan growth

The effect of market power on bank risk taking in Turkey

The aim of this paper is to understand the role of market power on the loan risk and overall bank risk measures for Turkish banks during 2001-2009. Testing for this question is particularly important for the Turkish banking system, which experienced an intense regulation process after 2000 leading to a significant decrease in the number of banks and thereby possibly reducing competition. The results of the study provide some evidence regarding the competition-stability hypothesis.competition, banking

On the link between credit procyclicality and bank competition

This paper investigates the relationship between bank competition and credit procyclicality for 17 OECD countries on the 1986-2009 period. We account for heterogeneity among countries in terms of bank competition through the use of a hierarchical clustering methodology. We then estimate panel VAR models for the identified sub-groups of economies to investigate whether credit procyclicality is more important when the degree of bank competition is high. Our findings show that while credit significantly responds to shocks to GDP, the degree of bank competition is not essential in assessing the procyclicality of credit for OECD countries.Credit cycle, economic cycle, bank competition, financial stability, panel VAR.